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News | 11-06-2024 | 15:36
The threat of terrorism has increased slightly again in recent months, due to the war in Gaza, violations of the Koran and threats from jihadist networks. Partly for this reason, the threat level remains at 4, which means that an attack in the Netherlands is a real possibility. This is stated in the Netherlands National Terrorism Threat Assessment (DTN) for June 2024, published today by the Netherlands National Security and Counter-Terrorism Coordinator (NCTV). In December last year, the threat level was raised from 3 (conceivable) to 4 (severe).
Jihadist threat remains high and growing online
Jihadism remains the main terrorist threat facing the Netherlands, with followers inspired by the war in Gaza and propaganda campaigns against the Koran in the Netherlands, which have led to various terrorist acts of violence in the Netherlands and Europe over the past six months (preparation).
Networks present in Europe also continue to pose a terrorist threat to the Netherlands and other European countries. Some networks operate independently, while others maintain links with ISIS groups in other parts of the world. ISIS’s Afghan branch, ISKP, plays a particular role. ISKP and other affiliated networks in Europe are mainly composed of individuals from Central Asia. Some of these individuals have previously joined jihadist groups in Syria and Iraq.
Moreover, outside of known jihadist networks, people in the Netherlands and surrounding countries are being exposed to extremist ideas online. Sometimes these include very young people. Some of these people are actually preparing or carrying out attacks, as several arrests in Europe have shown.
Potential for violence in the online environment of right-wing terrorism
The Dutch right-wing extremist scene is mainly made up of groups dedicated to normalising right-wing extremist ideas and making “white people” resilient through physical exercise, including so-called “active clubs”. Such groups are still few in number and limited in size, but sometimes have a large online presence. They say they believe that violence against people is counterproductive in principle. However, a wider acceptance of their ideas could lead to increased intolerance towards the government, minorities and political opponents. In the long run, this could lower the threshold for the use of force. Mutual cooperation between such groups appears to be increasing both nationally and internationally.
The Dutch right-wing extremist scene is mainly made up of groups dedicated to normalising right-wing extremist ideas and making “white people” resilient through physical exercise, including so-called “active clubs”. Such groups are still few in number and limited in size, but sometimes have a large online presence. They say they believe that violence against people is counterproductive in principle. However, a wider acceptance of their ideas could lead to increased intolerance towards the government, minorities and political opponents. In the long run, this could lower the threshold for the use of force. Mutual cooperation between such groups appears to be increasing both nationally and internationally.
A small number of anti-establishment movements and “sovereigns” are prepared to take violent action
Anti-establishment movements promote the narrative of the “evil elite”, which exacerbates distrust of democratic institutions and undermines the functioning of the democratic legal order. For a small minority of supporters, this narrative is a prelude to intimidation and violence. The undermining of the democratic legal order can also occur from within, when supporters of the “evil elite narrative” work within institutions they distrust and actively promote their ideas.
At least tens of thousands of self-proclaimed monarchs form a prominent group in the Dutch anti-establishment movement. Some of them consider Dutch laws and regulations ineffective, for example by refusing to pay taxes. The group often clashes with police, bailiffs and others acting on behalf of the government. Sometimes this is accompanied by aggression, threats and violence. A small number of Dutch monarchs are prepared to use aggressive violence against the so-called “evil elites”. Weapons, including guns and ammunition, have been found in the possession of several self-proclaimed monarchs.
Left-wing extremism
Developments in left-wing extremism are being monitored. These developments currently pose a limited threat of violent extremism or terrorism in the Netherlands. In the future, it is conceivable that some in this group will consider violence a necessary means to achieve their goals. At the moment, we have seen more severe actions recently, but they mainly remain in the realm of intimidation. This includes cyber searches, i.e. putting personal data online. In addition, for example, left-wing extremists participate in pro-Palestinian demonstrations at universities, which in some cases have been accompanied by public disorder, vandalism and violence against the police.
Threat Level
In December 2023, the threat level in the Netherlands was raised from Level 3 to Level 4. Since then, the probability of an attack has remained “high”. There are no standard measures or national recommendations associated with the threat level. The detailed information provided by the DTN enables security partners, such as the police, municipalities and ministries, to take measures to respond to the threat. Of course, all security partners remain vigilant and constantly assess where and how additional measures are needed. Over the past period, additional security measures have been taken when necessary, but no public announcements have ever been made. The threat level is also a way to raise public awareness of the threat and provide information about it.
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