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Climate change is affecting the livelihoods and food security of rural people around the world. However, when formulating policies to address the impacts of climate change, national decision-makers often lack access to local evidence on the impacts. Similarly, when projects implement climate change adaptation activities, they often lack information on country-specific vulnerabilities. To fill these information gaps, FAO has begun Climate change impact analysis and mapping for adaptation and food security The AMICAF project is funded by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Japan. The first phase of AMICAF has been launched in the Philippines and Peru. Currently, the project is also being implemented in Indonesia and Paraguay.
On the first day of a Farmer Field School (FFS) in the Bicol region of the Philippines, local farmers learned about Green Super Rice, a climate-resistant rice variety that can withstand floods, droughts and increased water salinity.
This is one of the climate change adaptation activities being implemented by FAO and Japan in the Philippines as part of the Analysis and Mapping of Climate Change Impacts for Adaptation and Food Security (AMICAF) project.
The project aims to provide national policymakers with evidence of the impacts of climate change so they can make more strategic planning and investment decisions. The project is also conducting climate-smart farmer field schools in Asian countries. In a farmer field school in the Philippines, 500 farmers learned about climate-resistant rice varieties and new crop management techniques that balance technology use with environmental sustainability.
“Climate-smart farmer field schools allow farmers to better understand the interactions between crops and weather and make informed decisions, including adopting stress-resistant varieties and other farming practices to reduce risks from extreme events and other climate-related hazards,” explained Lorenzo Alvina, a local farmer field school coordinator at the Philippines Department of Agriculture.
The AMICAF project, piloted in the Philippines and Peru, aims to fill the information gap between local impacts of climate change and the decisions made by government policymakers. Countries often do not have ready access to specific, local evidence when formulating policies that affect livelihoods and food security. AMICAF works through a project called MosaicThe project aims to help countries gather the information they need to understand the specific impacts of climate change on local agriculture and to help build their capacity to conduct these analyses after the project lifecycle.
“The project uses modelling tools to assess the projected impacts of climate change on agriculture across the country,” said Hiroki Sasaki, project coordinator at AMICAF. “The results of these top-down assessments are combined with results from a bottom-up socio-economic approach at the household level for analysis,” he added.
In Peru, for example, the MOSAICC model predicts that climate change will lead to widespread declines in the production of potatoes, peas, barley, starchy maize, wheat and beans in the Andes region by 2050. Ayacucho will be one of the most affected departments, as the model predicts a significant drop in the production of staple crops needed for food security. The econometric model also shows that household vulnerability to food insecurity is determined by structural factors. “The results confirm the need to strengthen social programs and regional rural development to respond to climate change,” said Julio Postigo, AMICAF Country Manager for Peru.
In the Philippines, model analysis predicts a general increase in seasonal rainfall. With this information in advance, farmers can adjust their planting plans and farming practices to protect yields from changes in weather patterns. In countries like the Philippines, which are prone to natural disasters, AMICAF’s models show that the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will only increase, so it is critical that farmers learn techniques to mitigate these crises.
“Climate change is a reality and farmers are already feeling its impacts on their fields,” said Hideki Kanamaru, Chief Technical Officer of AMICAF. “Agricultural systems need to transform towards climate-smart agriculture. This approach by AMICAF is a key component of FAO’s strategic response to one of today’s biggest challenges,” concluded Kanamaru.
Through new techniques learned in farmer field schools or the use of different crop varieties, FAO is helping to make livelihoods more resilient to disasters and climate change.
Sharing lessons learned
The second phase of the project, launched in Indonesia and Paraguay in 2015, will use a South-South Cooperation (SSC) approach: Peru will share its lessons learned with Paraguay, and the Philippines will share its experiences with Indonesia.
FAO is building technical capacity in Paraguay to map the impacts of climate change on the ground. Personnel from different institutions, including the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, the Meteorological and Hydrological Service, the Environment Secretariat, the Technical Planning Secretariat and research institutions, have participated in training in climate downscaling, hydrology and information technology.
In Indonesia, FAO supports the Climate Farmer Schools run by the Indonesian Meteorological, Climate and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) by providing climate forecasts and related analyses. These field schools provide farmers with climate information through experimental techniques, simple explanations and active discussions on topics such as how clouds and rain form and indigenous knowledge about agriculture and crop calendars. With this information, farmers can learn to adapt to changes brought about by climate change.
“We hope that the farmer field schools will inform farmers about future planting patterns so that they can adjust their planting periods based on possible changes brought about by climate change information,” explained Pudji Setyani, an official with BMKG. She added that these field schools coupled with agricultural extension services can help “guide farmers to adapt to climate change and maintain optimal yields in the face of climate change.”
On the other hand, decision-makers will have the information they need, such as projections of future crop yields and irrigation water availability at a country-wide scale, to implement evidence-based adaptation policies that support people’s livelihoods and food security.
Through further impact evaluations and South-South cooperation initiatives, FAO and the Government of Japan hope to build capacity to implement such modelling systems in more countries.
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