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The bimonthly business environment for wholesale trade deteriorated according to business managers surveyed in July 2024. The composite indicator stood at 92, down 3 points compared to May 2024 and below its long-term average (100) for the tenth consecutive month. This deterioration reflects, in particular, a decline in the balance of views on the general business outlook and past sales.
GraphicsComprehensive indicators
| Comprehensive indicators | |
|---|---|
| 2024-B4 | 92.4 |
| 2024-B3 | 95.3 |
| 2024-B2 | 95.9 |
| 2024-B1 | 91.6 |
| 2023-B6 | 91.9 |
| 2023-B5 | 93.8 |
| 2023-B4 | 92.8 |
| 2023-B3 | 94.8 |
| 2023-B2 | 98.6 |
| 2023-B1 | 97.6 |
| 2022-B6 | 100.4 |
| 2022-B5 | 96.0 |
| 2022-B4 | 100.8 |
| 2022-B3 | 101.7 |
| 2022-B2 | 105.3 |
| 2022-B1 | 116.3 |
| 2021-B6 | 113.3 |
| 2021-B5 | 108.7 |
| 2021-B4 | 112.6 |
| 2021-B3 | 110.3 |
| 2021-B2 | 99.1 |
| 2021-B1 | 96.8 |
| 2020-B6 | 85.7 |
| 2020-B5 | 89.4 |
| 2020-B4 | 78.2 |
| 2020-B3 | 66.5 |
| 2020-B2 | 96.8 |
| 2020-B1 | 105.2 |
| 2019-B6 | 105.9 |
| 2019-B5 | 106.2 |
| 2019-B4 | 105.2 |
| 2019-B3 | 107.4 |
| 2019-B2 | 105.7 |
| 2019-B1 | 100.9 |
| 2018-B6 | 103.5 |
| 2018-B5 | 103.6 |
| 2018-B4 | 101.5 |
| 2018-B3 | 104.8 |
| 2018-B2 | 109.5 |
| 2018-B1 | 108.7 |
| 2017-B6 | 110.7 |
| 2017-B5 | 108.5 |
| 2017-B4 | 108.8 |
| 2017-B3 | 104.5 |
| 2017-B2 | 102.8 |
| 2017-B1 | 105.0 |
| 2016-B6 | 98.1 |
| 2016-B5 | 97.4 |
| 2016-B4 | 103.1 |
| 2016-B3 | 101.8 |
| 2016-B2 | 99.6 |
| 2016-B1 | 102.5 |
| 2015-B6 | 101.7 |
| 2015-B5 | 99.4 |
| 2015-B4 | 102.0 |
| 2015-B3 | 101.0 |
| 2015-B2 | 96.3 |
| 2015-B1 | 95.7 |
| 2014-B6 | 95.3 |
| 2014-B5 | 90.8 |
| 2014-B4 | 96.1 |
| 2014-B3 | 97.8 |
| 2014-B2 | 98.0 |
| 2014-B1 | 97.1 |
| 2013-B6 | 97.8 |
| 2013-B5 | 97.0 |
| 2013-B4 | 87.5 |
| 2013-B3 | 87.7 |
| 2013-B2 | 88.3 |
| 2013-B1 | 88.9 |
| 2012-B6 | 89.0 |
| 2012-B5 | 90.9 |
| 2012-B4 | 94.8 |
| 2012-B3 | 92.8 |
| 2012-B2 | 99.4 |
| 2012-B1 | 95.4 |
| 2011-B6 | 96.0 |
| 2011-B5 | 100.2 |
| 2011-B4 | 106.0 |
| 2011-B3 | 107.4 |
| 2011-B2 | 108.3 |
| 2011-B1 | 106.2 |
| 2010-B6 | 104.6 |
| 2010-B5 | 105.2 |
| 2010-B4 | 100.5 |
| 2010-B3 | 94.6 |
| 2010-B2 | 85.1 |
| 2010-B1 | 85.1 |
| 2009-B6 | 77.9 |
| 2009-B5 | 76.4 |
| 2009-B4 | 70.8 |
| 2009-B3 | 68.6 |
| 2009-B2 | 67.2 |
| 2009-B1 | 79.1 |
| 2008-B6 | 84.0 |
| 2008-B5 | 94.3 |
| 2008-B4 | 96.7 |
| 2008-B3 | 101.6 |
| 2008-B2 | 106.8 |
| 2008-B1 | 107.5 |
| 2007-B6 | 109.0 |
| 2007-B5 | 111.7 |
| 2007-B4 | 107.7 |
| 2007-B3 | 110.6 |
| 2007-B2 | 111.8 |
| 2007-B1 | 108.2 |
| 2006-B6 | 110.2 |
| 2006-B5 | 107.0 |
| 2006-B4 | 107.5 |
| 2006-B3 | 102.0 |
| 2006-B2 | 99.3 |
| 2006-B1 | 103.8 |
| 2005-B6 | 99.5 |
| 2005-B5 | 94.8 |
| 2005-B4 | 96.1 |
| 2005-B3 | 92.4 |
| 2005-B2 | 97.5 |
| 2005-B1 | 100.8 |
chartComprehensive indicators
- Source: INSEE – Survey of Business Trends in Wholesale Trade.
The balance of opinion regarding the overall business outlook fell sharply
In July 2024, the index of wholesalers’ perceptions of the general business outlook fell sharply and reached its lowest level since November 2020. The index of perceptions of past sales fell again sharply and deviated from the average. This decline was evident in the sub-sectors of food and beverage wholesale trade, information and communications equipment, “other industrial capital goods” and “other professional wholesale trade”.
Regardless of the source of the goods, the balance of goods received was almost stable and well below its long-term average.
Finally, the balance of ordering intentions has decreased, and the balance specific to overseas orders has also decreased; both balances have deviated from their long-term averages.
GraphicsEconomic Outlook for the Wholesale Trade Industry
Balance of opinion (%) SA
| Avenue (1) | January 24 | March 24 | May 24 | July 24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Environment | 100 | 92 | 96 | 95 | 92 |
| Overall business outlook | -twenty three | -30 | -27 | -twenty four | -41 |
| Sales | -14 | -27 | -25 | -twenty four | -28 |
| Export sales | -15 | -18 | -12 | -18 | -19 |
| Received the goods | -10 | -twenty one | -twenty one | -twenty two | -twenty two |
| Received from abroad | -11 | -twenty two | -15 | -16 | -17 |
| Order Intention | -15 | -twenty one | -17 | -17 | -19 |
| Ordering from abroad | -15 | -19 | -14 | -16 | -18 |
| Overseas delivery | -15 | -16 | -9 | -14 | -18 |
| stock | 8 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| Past Workforce | -1 | -9 | -10 | -11 | -11 |
| Expected Workforce | -2 | -3 | -1 | -2 | -5 |
| Cash Position | -9 | -10 | -10 | -6 | -8 |
| Past selling price | 8 | -2 | -6 | -2 | 6 |
| Expected selling price | 15 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
- (1) Average since July 1979.
- Data source: INSEE-Wholesale Trade Business Trends Survey
The balance of opinion on past and expected sales prices increases again
The balance of opinion on wholesalers’ past sales prices in July 2024 rose sharply again, while the balance of opinion on expected prices rose for the third consecutive month. Both are close to their long-term averages.
GraphicsExpected prices for wholesale trade
| Expected Price | |
|---|---|
| 2024-B4 | 8.0 |
| 2024-B3 | 5.9 |
| 2024-B2 | 4.9 |
| 2024-B1 | 3.0 |
| 2023-B6 | 6.5 |
| 2023-B5 | 10.5 |
| 2023-B4 | 6.1 |
| 2023-B3 | 10.7 |
| 2023-B2 | 29.2 |
| 2023-B1 | 34.0 |
| 2022-B6 | 40.4 |
| 2022-B5 | 41.8 |
| 2022-B4 | 44.8 |
| 2022-B3 | 52.7 |
| 2022-B2 | 49.6 |
| 2022-B1 | 36.0 |
| 2021-B6 | 37.4 |
| 2021-B5 | 32.0 |
| 2021-B4 | 32.2 |
| 2021-B3 | 27.1 |
| 2021-B2 | 19.7 |
| 2021-B1 | 9.3 |
| 2020-B6 | -6.0 |
| 2020-B5 | 2.8 |
| 2020-B4 | 1.3 |
| 2020-B3 | -2.8 |
| 2020-B2 | -0.8 |
| 2020-B1 | 7.4 |
| 2019-B6 | 6.7 |
| 2019-B5 | 3.3 |
| 2019-B4 | 2.8 |
| 2019-B3 | 3.2 |
| 2019-B2 | 3.3 |
| 2019-B1 | 6.8 |
| 2018-B6 | 9.1 |
| 2018-B5 | 13.5 |
| 2018-B4 | 9.1 |
| 2018-B3 | 6.9 |
| 2018-B2 | 11.4 |
| 2018-B1 | 8.4 |
| 2017-B6 | 11.2 |
| 2017-B5 | 4.5 |
| 2017-B4 | 4.8 |
| 2017-B3 | 3.5 |
| 2017-B2 | 4.0 |
| 2017-B1 | 10.7 |
| 2016-B6 | 2.4 |
| 2016-B5 | -2.8 |
| 2016-B4 | 0.1 |
| 2016-B3 | -0.9 |
| 2016-B2 | -3.4 |
| 2016-B1 | -5.7 |
| 2015-B6 | -1.4 |
| 2015-B5 | -8.2 |
| 2015-B4 | 2.9 |
| 2015-B3 | 5.1 |
| 2015-B2 | -0.5 |
| 2015-B1 | -6.7 |
| 2014-B6 | -10.7 |
| 2014-B5 | -8.7 |
| 2014-B4 | -4.2 |
| 2014-B3 | -0.8 |
| 2014-B2 | 2.1 |
| 2014-B1 | 6.0 |
| 2013-B6 | 0.5 |
| 2013-B5 | 0.3 |
| 2013-B4 | -3.9 |
| 2013-B3 | -3.2 |
| 2013-B2 | -2.2 |
| 2013-B1 | 5.1 |
| 2012-B6 | 5.5 |
| 2012-B5 | 11.3 |
| 2012-B4 | 8.9 |
| 2012-B3 | 6.0 |
| 2012-B2 | 11.7 |
| 2012-B1 | 11.0 |
| 2011-B6 | 14.2 |
| 2011-B5 | 6.2 |
| 2011-B4 | 11.9 |
| 2011-B3 | 19.8 |
| 2011-B2 | 24.6 |
| 2011-B1 | 22.9 |
| 2010-B6 | 8.7 |
| 2010-B5 | 11.5 |
| 2010-B4 | 8.6 |
| 2010-B3 | 5.1 |
| 2010-B2 | 0.2 |
| 2010-B1 | -3.9 |
| 2009-B6 | -7.2 |
| 2009-B5 | -6.8 |
| 2009-B4 | -11.9 |
| 2009-B3 | -7.5 |
| 2009-B2 | -12.5 |
| 2009-B1 | -5.5 |
| 2008-B6 | 0.4 |
| 2008-B5 | 10.3 |
| 2008-B4 | 18.8 |
| 2008-B3 | 15.3 |
| 2008-B2 | 18.6 |
| 2008-B1 | 26.9 |
| 2007-B6 | 23.9 |
| 2007-B5 | 20.9 |
| 2007-B4 | 16.2 |
| 2007-B3 | 14.1 |
| 2007-B2 | 10.1 |
| 2007-B1 | 10.2 |
chartExpected prices for wholesale trade
- Source: INSEE – Survey of Business Trends in Wholesale Trade.
Wholesalers again appear somewhat pessimistic about expected changes in the size of their workforce
The balance of opinion on the expected change in the size of the labor force decreased again, having been on a nearly consistent downward trend since March 2022, while the balance of opinion on its near-term change remained stable. Both are below average.
The balance of opinion on stock levels increased slightly again
After four consecutive months of decline, consumer perceptions of inventory levels improved but remained below average. Inventory levels increased in most wholesale trade subsectors, especially the household goods and information and communications equipment subsectors, while they decreased in the food and beverages subsector and the “other industrial capital goods” subsector.
Finally, balances related to cash positions decreased again but remain above their long-term averages.
GraphicsBalance of opinion on the wholesale trade sub-sector
Balance of opinion, expressed as % SA
| Avenue (1) | January 24 | March 24 | May 24 | July 24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | -13 | -32 | -19 | -12 | -12 |
| Export sales | -16 | -twenty two | -15 | -19 | -19 |
| Goods received from abroad | -11 | -25 | -19 | -33 | -27 |
| Order Intention | -13 | -19 | -9 | -5 | -10 |
| existing stocks | 5 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 10 |
| food and drinks | |||||
| Sales | -15 | -twenty two | -15 | -18 | -twenty four |
| Export sales | -13 | -twenty three | -12 | -14 | -20 |
| Goods received from abroad | -13 | -15 | -1 | 2 | -12 |
| Order Intention | -11 | -14 | -12 | -12 | -12 |
| existing stocks | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| household items | |||||
| Sales | -10 | -8 | -7 | -13 | -10 |
| Export sales | -11 | -12 | -2 | -13 | -11 |
| Goods received from abroad | -6 | -twenty three | -11 | -15 | -7 |
| Order Intention | -13 | -15 | -12 | -13 | -11 |
| existing stocks | 12 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 14 |
| Information and communication equipment | |||||
| Sales | -8 | -twenty two | -20 | -6 | -17 |
| Export sales | -12 | -20 | -14 | -26 | -17 |
| Goods received from abroad | -8 | -26 | -twenty four | -16 | -twenty two |
| Order Intention | -10 | -15 | -1 | -4 | -4 |
| existing stocks | 8 | 7 | Thirteen | 8 | 18 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | -16 | -31 | -36 | -36 | -44 |
| Export sales | -twenty one | -17 | -twenty one | -30 | -34 |
| Goods received from abroad | -12 | -17 | -13 | -27 | -twenty two |
| Order Intention | -twenty one | -29 | -27 | -30 | -37 |
| existing stocks | 12 | 20 | 17 | 16 | 12 |
| Other professional wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | -17 | -44 | -44 | -40 | -44 |
| Export sales | -18 | -17 | -14 | -16 | -16 |
| Goods received from abroad | -13 | -27 | -26 | -19 | -twenty three |
| Order Intention | -18 | -29 | -26 | -twenty four | -29 |
| existing stocks | 6 | 6 | -1 | -9 | -6 |
- (1) Average since July 1979.
- Data source: INSEE-Wholesale Trade Business Trends Survey
Revision
The wholesale trade business climate index for May 2024 was revised up by 1 percentage point (rounded off). The revision was mainly due to the inclusion of late feedback from enterprises and the update of seasonal coefficients and comprehensive indicator parameters.
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