[ad_1]
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro will seek a third term in Sunday’s presidential election after more than a decade in power. But due to an economic crisis and deteriorating security, Hugo Chavez’s chosen successor is trailing in the polls behind opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia, who is trying to start a new chapter in Venezuela’s history.
A quarter century later Hugo Chavez After taking office, his Carefully selected successor, Nicolas Madurois seeking a third term. But a decade financial crisis Venezuela is mired in poverty, with millions forced to flee. This historical legacy is difficult to overcome. Venezuela may be about to reject decades of state-centered Chavismo policy.
Opposition challenger Edmundo González Urrutia, a former ambassador to Argentina and Algeria, is generating real enthusiasm considering the somewhat provisional nature of his candidacy. Replaced Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado enters election after Maduro Supreme Court controversy expired Her candidacy.
The soft-spoken grandfather now Leading in the pollswhich may be the opposition’s best hope to overthrow Maduro.
read moreVenezuelan opposition forced to register unknown candidates for July elections
On the eve of the vote, Maduro hardened his tone, claiming that an opposition victory could plunge the country into a “fratricidal civil war instigated by fascists” and warning that it would trigger a “bloodbath.”
To understand the stakes of the election and the possibilities for change, France 24 spoke with Fabrice Andreanian expert on Venezuela, a PhD candidate at the University of Lyon 2, and co-author of a research paper on state violence in Venezuela.
Given that the opposition is currently doing well, what are the chances of it winning?
At present, the opposition has a high chance of winning, mainly due to Maria Corina MachadoDespite the government’s attempts to prevent her from running, she has managed to travel the country in support of her successor, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, and has generated real enthusiasm – comparable to the enthusiasm that preceded Chávez’s first election in 1998.
However, we must remain cautious because Maduro still controls the election. Opposition victory The president continues to manipulate the judicial system during the 2015 legislative vote – deciding which political parties can run, and also postponing or bringing forward elections. Currently, the opposition is in a strong position, but last-minute moves that could change the current situation cannot be ruled out.
Is Maduro at risk of defeat due to the economic crisis of the past decade?
Maduro’s rhetoric — in which he portrays himself as the protector of the people and the country’s interests in the face of “radical” right-wing forces led by foreigners — is clearly flagging. The country suffered a massive devastation in 2014. Oil prices fallthen an embargo imposed by the United States. But the economic crisis was largely due to the government’s lack of investment in this key sector, which accounts for 80% of foreign exchange and 30% of GDP. Production has fallen sharply over the past decade, from 2.5 million barrels of crude oil per day to less than 500,000 barrels at the height of the crisis, before struggling to rise again to 1 million barrels.
At the same time, with the collusion between the government and the military, the illegal economy, especially drug trafficking, replaced the formal economy, and the people fell into poverty.
There is also a desire to restart democracy in Venezuela; the public is well aware of Maduro’s control over the political sphere. The president is officially backed by the United Socialist Party of Venezuela and 12 other political parties, some of which are bought or otherwise controlled by the state.
While more than 7 million Venezuelans have left Venezuela, only 100,000 were able to register to vote — another sign of the government’s efforts to subvert public opinion.
How will the worsening security situation as the economy collapses affect the vote?
In recent years, the situation has improved, but the reasons are unclear. The decline in crime and homicide in the capital is partly attributed to widespread poverty; profits from extortion and kidnapping have fallen. Some gangs have taken advantage of the mass migration to switch to more profitable activities, especially human trafficking.
Today, most homicides are the result of settling old scores or the actions of the police themselves, accounting for more than a third of the total. While Maduro may have lost control of the country, his pretense of fighting a lack of security by recruiting and sending poorly trained police officers into working-class neighborhoods has led to thousands of extrajudicial killings.
Maduro has increased the military’s political influence. How would the military establishment view a possible opposition victory?
Maduro was a union leader who became Chávez’s foreign minister. When he came to power, he lacked credibility in the eyes of the military, unlike Chávez himself or other possible successors who have military backgrounds. Therefore, he must provide guarantees by continuing or even accelerating the military’s rise to power. Maduro has spoken of the risk of a “bloodbath” if the opposition wins this election. This risk does not come from the opposition, but from those in power. If they continue to act against the will of the people, they may face a wave of mass protests, which they must then suppress.
For a number of reasons, the military seems unwilling to confront this, or at least not as much as it has in the past. In 2014 and especially in 2017, the government cracked down on anti-government demonstrations in an unprecedented manner, portraying students and working-class youth as violent. Coup plottersBut now, as the exodus continues, women are often at the forefront of pro-opposition rallies — including single mothers and the elderly, who demand reforms so their loved ones can return home. That will make it harder to justify a crackdown on a massive popular movement.
The military’s wait-and-see attitude also stems from its own discontent and internal divisions. Some have had their privileges taken away as a result of the economic crisis. Others, especially senior officers, have suffered foreign sanctions – in particular, the freezing of their overseas assets. It should also be noted that the military’s support for Maduro has never been wholehearted: half of the country’s approximately 300 political prisoners are military personnel. Everything, therefore, seems to indicate that the military is considering alternatives to Nicolás Maduro remaining in power.
This article is translated from The original text is in French.
[ad_2]
Source link
