PASOK: Betting, party measurement and the candidate ‘black hole’

What do bookmakers know about party elections? How can one predict the winner in a contest with unknown voters participating in the process?

The fact is, this PaSoK election contest Even more unpredictable than before. The fact that 4 out of 7 candidates seem to have claimed a place in the final second round shows the difficult equation of the election and the uncertainty of every prediction made.

Summer Forecast

In the past few days, the discussion about the internal party elections of the Panhellenic Socialist Movement has focused on the odds given by bookmakers. According to the odds of two bookmakers (Novibet and Stoiximan), two clear favorites are recorded.

First is the Mayor of Athens with 1.90 and 1.95, followed by the current president of the movement with 2.50 and 2.60. Both companies point out that Anna Diamantopoulou is in third place with 5.00, followed by Pavlos Geroulanos. Michalis Katrinis has 17.00 and Nadia Giannakopoulou has 31.00 and 30.00.

In terms of same-company returns, there have been no shocking changes from prior periods. Nikos Androuliakis and Harris Doukas Becoming the favorites in the second round matchup. However, both seem to be losing some momentum.

Entrance of Anna Diamantopoulou In the race for leadership, power seems to be slipping away from both sides. The rise of Pavlos Geroulanos’ candidacy is also noteworthy. The MP from Athens does not seem to be the candidate who simply decides the outcome, but rather creates the conditions for “claiming the above”.

Meetup Indicators

In addition to the predictions of the bookmakers, there are also measurements taken by the candidates’ staff. It is understood that these measurements are taken in open electoral bodies, but also in more closed electoral bodies, which may involve ballot boxes. The results are usually given in the following figure.

Nikos Androulakis came first among the so-called “small voters” and as the electorate expanded, he remained in first place, but with a smaller gap than No. 2. Haris Doukas followed closely behind, and there was a fight between Anna Diamantopoulou and Pavlos Geroulanos.

That is why the predictions for the duo in the second round vary. Experienced executives believe that in the process on October 6, the number of participants will be similar to that of the 2021 election (280,000 people), and they consider Nikos Androulakis and Haris Doukas to be the duo most likely to enter the second round. However, there are also executives who broadcast “how different the scenario will be in the autumn” and do not rule out Gerulanos’s Surprise.

Surprisingly, Ana Diamantopoulou’s candidacy seems to lack momentum, which has led to a reshuffle within the party but still shows no momentum to seize the leadership.

Candidate Black Hole

His current leadership candidate Pasokthey will slow down and save energy for the final leg of the race, which will begin in September. Then, the confrontation between them is expected to begin, which is expected to be manifested by an increase in the tone of criticism. During this short summer break, the candidates take stock of their campaigns and look for ways to increase their base in the electoral system and fill the “black holes” of their candidacy.

Nikos Andoulakis faces two challenges in the next critical period.

The first is to strengthen his leadership image to counter criticism that he was unable to lead PaSoK to victory over Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ ND. Despite the losses, the PaSoK chairman has remained unscathed, protecting his die-hard supporters across the country. He has none of the power he had before, and it is estimated that his electoral base is now moving within the 55,000 votes that his close aide and PaSoK secretary Andreas Spyropoulos received in the European elections.

Mr Andoulakis’s electoral black holes are in Attica and Thessaloniki. It will take a lot to improve his percentages and make up for the losses he suffered in areas such as Crete and Thrace where he maintained a strong lead.

In contrast to the PaSoK chairman, Athens Mayor Haris Doukas seems to be doing well in Lekanopedio, where a large number of voters in the party’s election are expected to come from. But he needs to increase his influence in the region, especially in Macedonia and Crete, to “balance” Andoulakis’ advantage.

In Crete and Attica (where she is strong), Anna Diamantopoulou is expected to play her part, and she is looking forward to a good performance in Macedonia. The question is what effect the former minister’s candidacy will have on the Pan-Social Justice Party voters who voted for her during a difficult period in the party’s life when she chose to leave.

Pavlos Gerolanos is trying to strengthen his force outside the basin, which appears to be making progress in several areas of the country. Much will be judged on the percentages they record in key areas, such as Lekanopedio, Michalis Katrinis and Nadia Giannakopoulou.