[ad_1]
askWho will be Next Prime Minister ? back Stunning results for the New People’s Front (NFP)The Left Alliance, which won 178 seats on Sunday July 7, dreams of only one thing: having its own Prime Minister in Matignon. But there is more to it. With a new relative majority in the National Assembly, the NFP intends to implement its electoral program.
However, despite his hopes, Jean-Luc MelenchonMathilde Pagnol said she was “definitely not disqualified for this position”, but her chances of becoming the next head of government are slim. Other names of leftists are being circulated to succeed Gabriel Attal, such as socialists Boris Vallaud or Olivier Faure, or even Head of ecologists, Marine Tondelier. The different NFP parties should come up with a common name for Matignon within this week.
Current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has submitted his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron. He will stay in office “temporarily” to “ensure national stability”.
But what options does the president have? Insights with Stéphane Rozès, political scientist, president of CAP (Advice, Analysis and Opinion), teacher at the Catholic College of Paris and author of Chaos, an article about people’s imagination (Cerf, 2022).
View : To succeed Gabriel Attal, the most discussed option since Sunday evening is to appoint a prime minister from parliament. New Popular Frontforming a new relative majority. Do you think Macron can avoid choosing a prime minister from the left?
Stephen Rhodes : First of all, it is necessary to return to the spirit of the system. After these legislative elections, we moved from a semi-presidential system to a semi-parliamentary system. Now it is up to the strongest coalition, the New Popular Front, to identify a prime minister and to lay out a roadmap so that the President of the Republic can appoint him to eventually obtain a majority in the government. This is the spirit of the system.
READ ALSO On the left, the Matignon Gate is already crowded with peopleStrategically, as part of Matignon’s nomination agreement, in order to avoid parliamentary obstruction and be able to implement its program, will LFI be disqualified amid strong opposition from the presidential camp?
As soon as the results were announced, Jean-Luc Mélenchon had a clear formula: the new Popular Front must implement its entire program, not just its programme. For the LFI, implementing it is therefore a question of unbridled, uncompromising action. The names of Mathilde Panot, Manuel Bompard or Clémence Guetté could be put forward in the negotiations currently underway.
But this does not take into account two rules of arithmetic. Within the NFP, a coalition of the Socialists, left-wing divers and dissident LFI representatives could form a pole that would allow the Socialists to gain a majority in the LFI. The Socialists could then also form an alliance with the weakened Communist Party and the ecologists.
READ ALSO “Mélenchon is a staunch German hater”: Germans are relieved but also worriedThis arithmetic within the NFP is important because it is a question of justifying its choice to the electorate, even if we do not need to tell the story: the legitimacy of the NFP representatives is partly due to the support of the Macron right, which opposed the National Rally. We must remember this, and the NFP tends to forget it.
Basically, the following situation will occur: it will be impossible for the LFI Prime Minister to obtain an absolute majority. From this, two scenarios will arise: either a socialist such as Olivier Faure or Boris Vallaud will be appointed as Matignon with the support of the LFI and the Ensemble, partially leading to the implementation of part of the NFP program, or there will be a rupture between the LFI and other left-wing forces, and a socialist Prime Minister will be appointed with the support of the presidential camp and the revolutionary party.
But due to the algorithm, these scenes are still very unstable.
Is the appointment of Jean-Luc Mélenchon in Matignon an unthinkable one?
We have to be careful, but the possibility of Jean-Luc Mélenchon being appointed Matignon remains unlikely for three reasons. First, the NFP refuses to choose him. Second, it is assumed that he is preparing for the next presidential elections. Third, it seems to me that the assumption of the LFI prime minister still forgets that in order to implement the entire program of the New Popular Front, the LFI needs at least passive support from the Ensemble.
READ ALSO Mélenchon must be demonizedDo you think we could have a chancellor elected by a coalition of the left, the presidential camp and the Republicans, like the German or Italian regimes?
This is not our tradition, but necessity is law, and we must find someone who can make this possible. This will mean a break within the New Popular Front, with socialists able to accept compromise.
There is also the case of a technical government. Is this hypothesis still possible given the composition of the National Assembly?
When we talk about a technological government, that’s actually not the case. A government is always political, even if it’s led by technologists. Because all technological choices are still political choices. So if there was a truly technological government, it would deal with current events for a year, and by the time it was time to disband.
I don’t believe it, because in September the European Commission was supposed to protest to France about its public finances.
READ ALSO Olivier Gbagbo: “We are in the midst of economic denialism! » What if all of these scenarios fail?
The final solution was the resignation of the President of the Republic. Parliament remained ungovernable. The President asked for clarification that, first of all, he had lost on the merits, but that, arithmetically, Parliament was more unstable than before its dissolution.
Which hypothesis do you think is most reasonable?
The most plausible and likely scenario, in my opinion, is a socialist prime minister who benefits from the support of the Franco-Insoumise and the French Bloc, or at least does not oppose it.
[ad_2]
Source link
