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MPS will be sold. It must be an “industrial operation” aimed at creating “multiple banking centers”. The Minister of Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, explained the rationale guiding the final divestment of the MEF stake. After a drop from 64% to 26.7%, the Ministry of Finance is actually ready to sell the last part of the Montepaschi plan in view of a final privatization: it is a delicate process that can be divided into several steps, for which Rome does not want to suffer the impulse to act “at all costs”. «We want to carry out industrial operations in good conditions, at the service of the State and the national economy. Therefore, when these conditions are met, the operation will be carried out”, explained the minister.
Markets feel the restructuring
Of course, after the first two disposals, the restrictions that prevented any disposal expired yesterday. The market inevitably moves forward and senses the risk. As a result, all the stocks involved rose, from Monte (+5.71%) to Bper (+3.59%), with its capital Unipol strengthening (+3.19%). Despite the denials, the insurance companies themselves remain one of the parties most likely to play a leading role in the upcoming restructuring of the banking sector, at least considering the size and results achieved in recent years.
Joint police operation
Moreover, in Bologna’s ambitions, Unipol is also a significant shareholder in Bper. Sondrio (+2.15%) believes that the prospect of further growth in Bper’s size is very reasonable, as evidenced by the recent transaction that brought the group’s stake close to 25%. Given that the physical delivery of the shares is not contemplated, the structure of the operation does not require any formal approval with the ECB: settlement of the contract will be made only in cash, and Unipol will have exclusive economic benefits associated with this additional 4.8% package, but without any governance rights.
Its first effect is to “lock” the bank in until at least February 2028, theoretically enough time to defuse potential interest from other operators and seize any opportunities. However, to call it an “opportunity”, several aspects must be taken into account. The first is undoubtedly the context in which Unipol’s previous extraordinary actions took place. In almost all cases, the target companies were in at least a “weak” financial or organizational position, from FondiariaSai to Carige to the consolidation of the hotel sector (between Una and Atahotel, to the branches of Ubi Banca). In short, the question of “price” has always been given special consideration. This will also be the case in the future.
I have multiple
In this regard, if we look at the multiples of Bper and MPS (4.9 and 4.7 respectively after adjusting for expected earnings, while the market average is about 7), Emilia Institutional certainly has more room to grow than Monte, which perhaps still has some steps to complete in terms of strengthening the portfolio quality and risk.
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