Trump or Harris’ election will have this impact on Finland

The United States will hold a presidential election in November, and its impact can also be seen in Finland.

Iltalehti found out how the Republican candidate Donald Trump’s Re-elected or likely Democratic nominee, Vice President Terrible Harris The president-elect could have an impact on Finland.

Large reinforcement elements

International political commentator and CEO of the Nordic Western Office Ristor EJ Pentilla Harris’s election is expected to bring continuity to the presidency Joe Biden It is therefore difficult to expect major policy changes in areas such as transatlantic cooperation.

– Perhaps most importantly, continuity. When talking about civil service management, Pentila said he would most likely consider having the same personnel composition in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defence.

Pentile believes that if Harris is elected president, the major development for Finland in US foreign policy will be the strengthening of the Nordic frame of reference. Barack Obama During his presidency.

– A Democratic president would want to see the Nordic countries as a whole from the start. This would be a big strengthening element.

A congressman familiar with American politics shared the same view. Gianni Coco (standard deviation).

– We are considered part of the defense of the North and, therefore, of the North Atlantic, so there will no longer be such country-specific focus on Finland, Koko said.

Koko said Harris is likely to bring values ​​issues to the foreign policy agenda more than before. He sees similarities between Harris’ activities and those of the president Bill Clinton’s Participate in foreign policy.

– I can believe that maybe we will see more of the 1990s in the Harris era, where the United States plays more of this world policeman role, whether it’s about conflicts in Africa or Europe, they will take action.

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Magnitude unknown

Because Harris would be an unheralded great as a superpower leader, Pentile and Koko believe that Russia, China and Iran, for example, will in some way test how Harris would respond to various surprising events as president.

– Pentila believes that Trump does not want to be tested because no one knows what will happen.

Koko estimated that Russia would attempt to test Harris’ response with some form of hybrid influence campaign.

– Russia’s actions may be related to such a mixed influence that everyone knows Russia has done it, but there is no hard evidence, so to speak. Koko reflected, perhaps this will test everyone’s reaction a little bit, how the new commander-in-chief will work.

“I’m not worried”

Despite Trump’s attention-grabbing speech, Koko is not concerned that a second Trump presidency will weaken NATO’s deterrence or defense cooperation between Finland and the United States.

——Whichever one they choose, I don’t think it will have much impact on them. Specifically, I don’t see any major changes in the commitments made by the United States within the framework of NATO, even to Southeast Asian countries.

On the other hand, Pentila said he had recently had many discussions with Republican security policy experts and parties close to Trump.

– I am not worried about Finland. Obviously, a NATO country like Finland that takes its security seriously will be supported by the United States even under Trump.

– The fact that Trump will throw Ukraine under the bus and do whatever he wants is not the perception you get from people who are close to Trump right now, Pentilla said.

There must be something to offer

Koko said that in Trump’s eyes, Finland’s advantage lies in its strong national defense, and within NATO, Finland is specifically a country that produces security, not a country that consumes security.

– Koko pointed out that we also have a good advantage that if Trump returns to the White House, we will already be a producer of security when we join, rather than a consumer.

Penttilä believes that with Trump’s election, Finland should pay more attention to the US’s views. For example, Penttilä said that the DCA defense cooperation agreement, the F35 fighter jet procurement and the icebreaker program announced in July are all good things for Finland.

– In everything, Finland must start from the situation in the United States. A security policy expert close to Trump said that in these discussions it is not worth putting everything on the table yet, and even if Trump is elected, there must be something to offer, Pentila said.

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‘America First’

The United States, known as a world economic power, is also an important trading partner of Finland. Therefore, the decision made by the United States is also very important to the Finnish economy.

Although the “America First” slogan is closely associated with Trump in people’s minds, in Pentilla’s view, it also describes Harris’s trade policy thinking very well. Pentilla reminded that tariffs, that is, tariffs, were part of a series of measures by Trump and also appeared during Biden’s presidency.

– Pentila said the second version is Harris’ soft version, while Trump’s version is a tougher version of the America First policy.

Trump’s package includes at least tax cuts, deregulation and new tariffs. Harris’s option, on the other hand, would include supporting the competitiveness of American companies at the expense of foreign companies.

– Penttilä estimates that if Kamala Harris comes to power, the policy of support (for companies) will continue and Europe will be in trouble as a result, because we will not be able to support industry as widely as in the United States.

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Penttilä believes that the background impact of Trump’s trade policy is particularly large Robert Lighthizer Lighthizer, who served as trade representative in the Trump administration, elaborated on his ideas in more detail in his book. No free trade.

– Lighthizer’s trade policy is based not on viewing American citizens as consumers who need access to cheap products, but rather as producers and workers who must have meaningful jobs in the United States.

– “We want to work to ensure that every company doing business in the United States must invest in American production facilities and jobs,” Penttilä concludes.

Finland’s competitiveness

Since the United States will implement protectionist trade policies anyway, Finnish policymakers and businesses should consider how to respond, Penttilä said, stressing that there is no room for slowdown.

– In the eyes of many, this is a Kamala-style selfish patronage policy, or worse, that is, in Trump’s case, tax cuts, tariffs and deregulation. Both Finnish and European companies must consider how to benefit from this new dynamic.

– If Trump and tax cuts come, then the whole world will start to gradually move in this direction. In this case, Finland would be better off focusing on tax solutions that make Finland an attractive country for investment.

Penttilä believes that the appropriate place for the above tax reform is Petri Oppen (Corner) Mid-term government rally. Penttilä said that if Harris wins, Finland should especially invest in green technology and Nordic cooperation.

National level cooperation

When Joe Biden took office as president in January 2021, he announced that the United States had returned to international cooperation. For example, the United States returned to the Paris Climate Agreement, which it withdrew from under Trump.

Koko believes the same thing will happen again if Trump returns to the White House, but he does not think the federal decision will change the attitude of states or the international community towards emissions reduction targets.

– There, states have very independent jurisdiction over many issues in different areas of life. We are seeing many states and even individual cities in the United States taking a strong lead in addressing climate change, Koko said.

Koko said Finnish diplomats and the business community deserve more attention than they currently pay to building economic relations at the national level.

– Maybe Finland should also see this and establish more bilateral relations with US states, whether Harris or Trump is the US president. It will indeed bring a lot of economic opportunities to Finland’s business life.