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The state election results in the German states of Saxony and Thuringia were also a reckoning for the federal government in Berlin. Forming a government at the state level will be difficult.
Dresden, Erfurt, Berlin – for the first time, the AfD is the strongest force in the state elections. In Thuringia, it already has the strongest ARD and German TV 2 It also made progress in the Saxony state election and is battling the CDU for first place.
The election results are disastrous for the federal traffic light alliance. The FDP is still far from the 5% threshold in both countries, and the Greens were kicked out of the Thuringia state parliament. The SPD’s support rate in both countries is around 7%, far from double digits.
The parties that make up the federal government have never done so badly in state elections. In Thuringia, the Sahara Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) performed better than the SPD, the Greens and the FDP combined, while the AfD is now almost three times as strong as the Red Light.
So far, the electoral defeat has overshadowed the chancellor’s party. But the SPD’s discipline could end in three weeks at the latest. Next up is the election in Brandenburg, which is even more important for the SPD than in Saxony and Thuringia. In Brandenburg, the SPD has been chancellor since 1990. If Dietmar Wodeck, who has been in power for eleven years, loses reelection, Olaf Scholz’s candidacy for chancellor in 2025 would be in jeopardy.
Michael Kretschmer, the Prime Minister of Saxony and the top candidate of the CDU, has called for a different style of politics from the federal government. “There is a lot of mistrust in politics and it has to end. A different style of politics has to be adopted here,” Kretschmer said in an interview with ARD. People are angry about federal politics. “It is not possible that election after election here ends in disaster,” said the CDU politician. “How should the federal elections be conducted? Is there really a plan to hand the country over to the populists?”
Is BSW the only way out?
In Thuringia, the former red-red-green minority alliance led by Prime Minister Ramilho (left) has relied on cooperation with the CDU since 2019 and has no realistic possibility of continuing to govern. The German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution lists the AfD as an absolute right-wing extremist and the party will be excluded from the new government, as the other parties have ruled out the possibility of forming a coalition. Nevertheless, Thuringia AfD leader Björn Houcke sees the government’s mandate as a mandate for his party. The 52-year-old, who was fined twice a few weeks ago for the first time for using a Nazi slogan, said he wanted to discuss coalitions with other parties.
According to the forecasts, the most likely coalition option is an unprecedented alliance of the CDU, the Socialists and the SPD. The BSW, which is split from the left, could come to a decisive position. Mario Voigt, the CDU leader in Thuringia, sees these forecasts as an order to form a government led by him, as the 47-year-old CDU leader Mario Voigt said on election night. He announced that he wanted to engage with the SPD and was willing to “discuss” with the BSW.
To do this, the CDU would have to step over its shadow. Because the party founder, Sahra Wagenknecht, was a member of the East German national party SED, and later became a leading figure in the left-wing communist platform, and she is very friendly to Russia. Nevertheless, cooperation with the BSW is fundamentally possible, but cooperation with the left is not, as with the AfD, because the decision of the party is correct.
With the AfD’s victory, another problem could arise in the two federal states: if it wins more than a third of the state parliamentary mandates, it will have a blocking minority: it could block everything that requires a two-thirds majority, including the appointment of constitutional judges. (Political Department, Statistics Bureau)
For more information on this topic:
Clearly ahead in survey
Tensions in Saxony and Thuringia elections: Here’s the chance for the AfD
The transfer of power is imminent
State elections in Saxony and Thuringia: New color theory in East Germany
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