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Three months after it came into force, the government lifted the ban on political party and associational political activity on July 10. After a few months of silence, the political class may regain influence in the public debate on the continuation of the transition. But the parties’ room for maneuver, especially with regard to the upcoming elections, is quite limited.
This was a major demand of the political parties, but few expected it at the time. On July 10, 2024, three months after the initial decision, the government decided to lift the suspension of political activities affecting political parties and associations. According to a press release from the Council of Ministers, this decision was taken “in an atmosphere of controlled security, political and social situation, and at this stage of the implementation of the recommendations of the dialogue”.
“Through this dissuasive measure, the government is able to curb all threats to public order posed by this important event in the life of the nation (the Mali peace and national reconciliation dialogue, editor’s note),” the committee ministers also clarified regarding the suspension.
After the cancellation of the decision, several political parties or politicians reacted. “The URD welcomes this decision of the authorities, as it responds to the strong concerns expressed by our party in its press release of April 12, 2024,” the Handshake party stressed in a press release of July 11. For the Rassemblement pour la Rassemblement pour la Démocratie, this decision contributes to “easing the political and social climate with a view to uniting Malians, which is a necessary condition for the success of the current institutional and political reforms”.
Former Prime Minister Moussa Malla welcomed the “reasonable decision requested by the majority of the country’s active forces,” while calling on the authorities to “take measures to calm the socio-political environment and work with political actors with the aim of establishing a credible timetable for the return of the country to constitutional order.”
The same is true for the Coalition of Patriotic Forces (COFOP). “The COFOP presidency takes this opportunity to ask the Malian judicial authorities to examine with compassion the files of all political prisoners. This will allow all political actors to fully participate in the construction of our State, in accordance with the laws and regulations in force,” the coalition noted in a press release issued on July 15, 2024.
Recovery and misunderstanding
Just a few days after lifting the measure that suspended the activities of political parties, the Independent Electoral Management Institute (AIGE) invited the political class to a meeting on July 15, 2024 to relaunch the consultative framework AIGE – Political Parties.
While the political parties are expected to begin discussions at this meeting around the electoral timetable for the presidential elections that will conclude the transition, the debate will certainly revolve around the AIGE’s progress in organizing the upcoming elections, but there is no sign that an electoral calendar has emerged.
Although still dissatisfied, most political parties present at the meeting welcomed the AIGE initiative and called for its continuation. In addition to the signatories of the March 31, 2024 Declaration, representatives of the groups present at the meeting included former Prime Minister Modibo Sidibé’s FARE Anka Wuli, ADEMA-PASJ, PARENA, Yelema Party and PS Party-Yeleen Koura decided to suspend participation in this and other meetings until the release of 11 political comrades who were “unjustly detained”. These political leaders were arrested during a political meeting held at a private residence on June 20, 2024, when political activities were still banned.
“AIGE cannot act as guarantor, spokesperson or interlocutor for citizens who are in trouble with themselves, the justice system or third parties, regardless of their level. At AIGE we do not interfere in the course of justice. This is not part of our prerogative,” declared Maître Moustapha Cissé, President of AIGE.
Back to work?
Lifting the suspension of party activity and association politics following the AIGE’s solicitation of political parties could open the way for a remobilization within a political class that has become a shadow of itself for several months.
Under the transitional regime, political parties are free to once again develop political activities and initiatives, thus returning to the forefront of the national stage. But as political scientist Ballan Diakité analyzes, the current environment does not allow politicians to truly restore their image.
“I believe that lifting the suspension of party activities will not immediately allow us to revitalize party activities for at least two main reasons. First, today, without state funding, many of them face financial problems even if they were granted the right to resume their activities. However, it is difficult to carry out political activities without financial means,” he believes.
“Secondly, in the current political situation, there is a general reluctance among political parties to organize certain large events. Political leaders feel a certain psychosis regarding the guarantee of a certain amount of freedom, especially with regard to demonstrations or rallies. This general condition related to the current situation in the country means that even if political parties are required to organize events, they cannot reach a certain scale,” continued Mr. Diakite.
Less wiggle room
Widely suspected by national opinion and often blamed for years of mismanagement that has led to the multifaceted crisis Mali has experienced for years, politicians are far from being able to force elections on Malian soldiers within a reasonable time frame for a transition.
If a section of the political class (here referring to the member parties of COFOP) demands that presidential elections be organized by the end of 2024, the government itself will surely set a deadline in due course, even if the election schedule is such that the AIGE convenes a meeting of the Electoral College. According to reports, the date should be announced soon.
For Barran Diakite, the lack of immediate prospects for organizing elections significantly reduces the room for maneuver of political parties in the upcoming elections, as suggested in the conclusions of the inter-Mali dialogue, where the transitional president himself could become a candidate.
“This situation makes political parties uncomfortable. As we all know, political parties were created to conquer and exercise power. But elections still need to be held and dates set so that parties can mobilize and prepare for campaigns,” confided the political scientist.
“In the absence of details on the organisation of the immediate elections, the only wiggle room left for political parties is to carry out their day-to-day activities, participate in political debates and take a stand on certain decisions taken by the government,” he added.
Some analysts also believe that the transitional authorities could surprise the political class by releasing the electoral calendar when politicians least expect it and are not fully prepared for electoral competition.
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