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Welcome back to the China in Eurasia briefing, a Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty newsletter tracking China’s resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.
I’m Reid Standish, a reporter for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, and here’s what I’m watching right now.
Shuttle diplomacy, Sullivan, and sanctions
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan arrived in China for days of high-level talks as Beijing called recent U.S. sanctions on Chinese companies over the war in Ukraine “illegal and unilateral” and “without factual basis.”
Here’s the thing.
Finding perspective: Washington has repeatedly warned Beijing about its support for Russia’s defense industrial base and has enacted hundreds of sanctions aimed at curbing Moscow’s ability to use certain technologies for military purposes.
USA Imposing sanctions The U.S. government imposed sanctions on Aug. 23 on more than 400 entities and individuals, accusing them of supporting Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine, including Chinese companies that U.S. officials believe are helping Moscow circumvent Western sanctions and build up its military power.
123 entities were also added to the U.S. export control list, known as the “Entity List,” which requires suppliers to obtain a license before shipping to targeted companies. Of the latest batch of entities added, 63 are based in Russia and 42 are based in China.
On August 27, before Sullivan arrived that day, Li Hui, China’s special envoy for Eurasian affairs, who had already conducted four rounds of shuttle diplomacy, Criticism of sanctions Beijing held a briefing for diplomats following a new round of talks with officials from Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa.
Although China did not attend a major peace conference in Switzerland in June, it has worked hard to present itself as actively seeking a solution to the war in Ukraine.
After several rounds of talks chaired by Li Keqiang this spring, Beijing put forward proposals supporting prisoner exchanges, opposing the use of nuclear and biological weapons, opposing armed attacks on civilian nuclear facilities, and an outline of principles for ending the war in February 2023.
Sullivan in China: Sullivan’s visit comes at a time when Sino-US relations are highly tense, involving issues such as Taiwan and the war in Ukraine. Tensions The situation in the South China Sea continues to escalate.
This visit is Sullivan’s fifth meeting with Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who is also director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission of the Communist Party of China. Recent ReportsOfficials from both countries have been holding secret back-channel talks since 2023, after relations hit a low point following an incident in which a Chinese spy balloon flew over U.S. skies.
The two officials are expected to discuss a range of issues in Beijing, including tensions in the South China Sea, China’s growing cooperation with Russia and conflicts in the Middle East.
Why it matters: Negotiations between Washington and Beijing are never easy, and both sides have a lot to talk about, but Russia and the war in Ukraine are at the top of the agenda.
In April, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned during a visit to Beijing that Washington would take action if China did not stop supplying Russia with microchips and mechanical parts needed to build Ukrainian weapons.
He also accused his Chinese counterparts of “fueling the greatest threat to European security since the Cold War.”
Since then, Chinese companies have been hit with a series of measures, including the threat of further secondary sanctions on other Chinese entities, which has led to Chinese banks Tightening restrictions Payments from Russia.
Despite the many problems, both Sullivan and Wang Yi hope to establish a framework to stabilize relations between the two governments.
In January this year, Sullivan said in a commentary on Sino-US relations at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York that he and Wang Yi continued to have “direct” dialogue on major issues such as Ukraine and Russia.
“We both feel that we don’t agree on everything, but there’s a lot of work to do,” Sullivan explain.
Three more stories from Eurasia
1. China and Belarus sign a free trade agreement
Belarus Announce A free trade agreement on services and investment will be signed with China, as well as a series of other agreements to strengthen cooperation in the fields of security, energy and finance.
Details: The new agreement was reached following a visit by Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang to Minsk. The signing ceremony took place on August 22, but the free trade agreement was announced in a joint statement by both parties on August 23.
Li’s visit follows a multi-day visit to Moscow that focused on trade and economics. Sanctioned Belarus remains heavily dependent on Moscow for political and financial support but is also looking to balance that dependence with closer ties with Beijing.
China was once an active investor in Belarusian infrastructure, manufacturing, and technology companies, but Beijing has not provided any new projects or loans to Minsk since 2019, and it appears to have withdrawn from the country during the domestic crisis in Belarus, causing Lukashenko to break off politically with the European Union and making it a less attractive economic partner for Beijing.
The new deal provides Belarus with a degree of financial lifeline as it copes with the economic downturn, but details remain unclear and there may be obstacles in its implementation.
2. Azerbaijan’s new balance strategy with China
Azerbaijan is laying the foundation for expanding its ambitions in the South Caucasus and is seeking China’s help, as I Report here Applicable to RFE/RL.
meaning: In just two months, Baku’s ties with Beijing have grown rapidly, with the oil-rich country moving closer to China politically and economically by signing a series of agreements that could bolster China’s presence in the region and open the door to new Chinese investment in Azerbaijan.
The cooperation began in July this year when the two countries upgraded bilateral relations by establishing a new strategic partnership. A few weeks later, Baku again applied to upgrade its status within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) from dialogue partner to observer, laying the foundation for full membership.
Then on August 20, Azerbaijan said it had applied to join the BRICS group of emerging economies led by China and Russia, which also includes Brazil, India and South Africa as founding members.
For Azerbaijan, these moves should be seen in the context of Baku’s desire to leverage its new trade interests in the heart of Eurasia while also hedging its foreign policy by diversifying its relations with other countries. Russia and Turkey have been traditional external players, along with the European Union, but China offers Baku more room for balance.
The so-called Middle Corridor, an alternative trade route that bypasses Russia and connects China and the European Union through Central Asia and the South Caucasus, has attracted billions of dollars worth of investment, and Azerbaijan is seeking to attract more from China.
Baku is also seeking to expand ties with China in other areas, including further cooperation in the green energy sector, as Azerbaijan tries to plan for a future that reduces its reliance on fossil fuel exports and focuses instead on advanced technology and military procurement.
In addition to the Central Corridor, Baku is located at the intersection of the international North-South Transport Corridor, which stretches from Russia southwards to Azerbaijan and then connects Iran and India.
“If Baku was previously able to use its energy resources[as leverage]to develop relations with the West, the international trade corridor has now also become a strategically important tool in Azerbaijan’s foreign policy,” Nurlan Aliyev, a lecturer at the Warsaw University of Economics and Human Sciences, told me.
3. “I’ve never seen them make any comments”
Public discussion in Kazakhstan about the experiences of ethnic Kazakhs in neighboring Xinjiang has become muted due to years of pressure on activists, which has also discouraged relatives of Kazakh refugees and survivors of the detention system from sharing their stories.
My colleagues Asemgul Mukhitqyzy and Chris Rickleton Talking to Kazakh journalists He recently attempted to investigate the plight of China’s ethnic Kazakhs.
What you need to know: Zhaqsylyq Qazymuratuly, a reporter for Kazakhstan’s Dawn newspaper, published an article in late July about what the newspaper said were 22 ethnic Kazakh intellectuals currently imprisoned in China.
Kazakhstan was a hotbed of activism and public awareness when arrests first began in Xinjiang, but that has largely subsided following a crackdown on activist leaders.
In this regard, the recent article marks a noteworthy effort to restart dialogue in the country, but as Kazimuratulli told RFE/RL’s Kazakh service, those who have been reunited with their loved ones in Kazakhstan over the past few years — sometimes after long separations — are not eager to talk about their experiences.
Furthermore, Kazakh relatives of the detainees who are the focus of this article have become increasingly reluctant to speak about their cases.
“All of them refused to comment. The reason is obvious. Advocacy could worsen the situation of their detained relatives,” Kazimulatulli said.
Across the supercontinent
Loan Evolution: Chinese lending practices are often under scrutiny amid accusations of “debt-trap diplomacy.” However, in Central Asia, Chinese financial institutions are adapting to use different lending models, said Nargiza Muratalieva wrote Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
Target scientists: Uyghur Human Rights Watch Record There are more than 200 cases of China imprisoning Uighur scientists and other scientific professionals.
New Strategy: U.S. President Joe Biden has approved a new nuclear strategy to prepare for a possible coordinated nuclear confrontation with Russia, China and North Korea. according to According to the New York Times.
Coal in Kyrgyzstan: The Kyrgyz government will introduce new regulations to prevent coal prices from rising in the country, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Kyrgyz Service Report.
The price controls will take effect on September 15 and last for 90 days. Currently, there is a shortage of coal, which may cause coal prices to soar. Kyrgyz authorities have said they plan to increase domestic coal mining and increase coal imports from neighboring China.
Things to watch out for
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova explain In the 2023-2024 academic year, 48,000 Chinese students will study in Russia, an increase of nearly 10,000 from the previous year.
Golikova also said that there are currently more than 16,000 Russian students studying in Chinese universities.
The rise is the result of several new agreements signed in recent years between Beijing and Moscow aimed at increasing the number of international students at each other’s universities. Chinese and Russian student The number of students studying in the United States is decreasing.
That’s all I have to say for now. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions, please don’t forget to send them to me.
Until next time,
Reed Standish
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