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Partisan divisions and clashes persist in the European Parliament following elections late last month, especially over the traditional power play for the most important posts in the European Union. The increase in the strength of the ECR Group – a bloc of conservative right-wing parties that is now larger than the liberal Renew Group – has given leaders such as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni more influence when it comes to discussing and deciding who should hold the most important posts within the European Union.
This became very clear on Monday, June 17, when EU leaders gathered in an informal meeting to decide on nominations for three posts. It was expected that Ursula von der Leyen would be nominated as President of the European Commission, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas would become the EU’s next foreign minister, former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa would take over as President of the European Council and Roberta Messora would continue as President of the European Parliament.
Many were therefore surprised when Charles Michel, the current president of the leadership committee, walked out of the meeting around midnight and announced to the media that nominations had yet to be agreed; a decision that should be postponed until the next summit at the end of June.
A number of leaders, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, reportedly attended a closed-door meeting, delaying the start of the summit itself, to finalize proposed reforms to be implemented by then – for example, that the term of the president of the Leaders’ Council should be divided into two periods.
At the closed meeting, the leaders served not only as representatives of their countries but also – and perhaps more importantly – as advocates of their parties in the European Parliament. Macron of the Liberals, Scholz of the Social Democrats, Tusk and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis of the Christian Democrats. These groups have been and are likely to remain in the majority coalition in parliament.
But their proposals at Monday night’s summit ran counter to others, such as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who was one of the few member state leaders in attendance. With the European Parliament elections going well, he was very unhappy about not being invited to the private preparatory meeting. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban took the same stance; although his position is certainly not as secure as Meloni’s.
Meroni is the informal leader of the ECR group in the European Parliament, which belongs to the right wing of the Christian Democrats. The ECR is made up of hardline conservative parties that are critical of the European Union in many cases and want to change its structure. While the gains made by these parties in the European Parliament elections at the end of last month were certainly limited, the ECR’s gains increased significantly earlier this week when 11 MEPs joined the group. With this, the ECR became the third largest party in the European Parliament – significantly ahead of the Liberal Party (Renew Europe), which lost strength in the elections. This difference became even greater when the Czech ANO party (led by former Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš) decided to leave the Liberal Party.
These comments may not change the landscape in the European Parliament; the moderate groups (Christian Democrats, Social Democrats and Liberals) still hold a majority in the parliament. However, the ECR’s strong position gives it more influence in negotiating various parliamentary positions, such as the positions of vice-president and chair of parliamentary committees. Merloni’s strength also allows her to demand that Italy be given a more influential position in the European Commission.
In addition to this, parties within the ID group (among which there are nationalist parties such as the French National Front) have repeatedly pleaded with Melloni and her people to strengthen right-wing cooperation and even unification. Marine Le Pen and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban have both repeatedly raised this issue – although his party Fidesz is currently outside the European Parliament. Together, the ID and ECR groups would have around 140 MPs out of 720, making them the second largest group in Parliament after the Christian Democrats. If ten MPs from Orban’s Fidesz join the group, it could expand further.
Waiting on the sidelines are 15 members of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which was kicked out of the ID group before the election over controversial comments its leader made about German SS soldiers in World War II.
However, political commentators believe that it is unlikely that Melloni will be ready to take such a step. There are considerable differences in the positions of the two parties, ECR and ID, for example on Ukraine, and in addition, Melloni has established a strong position in the EU leadership and hardly wants to commit himself to the far right in the European Parliament. However, if the French National Front wins the elections at the end of next month and even succeeds in forming a government in France, it is not ruled out that Melloni will reassess this.
Alliance formed — but fleeting
Even if these two groups joined forces, it would not change the main results of the European Parliament elections; while hard-line parties did win victories and defensive victories – especially in France and Germany – centrist parties still have a majority of seats, which could actually increase if the Greens decided to join forces with them.
Therefore, one still has to consider the possibility that the original plan will go ahead and Ursula von der Leyen will be nominated as the next (and continuing) President of the European Commission at the summit later next week.
If that is the case, however, the big question is how she will react when MEPs vote on the nomination. Von der Leyen needs at least 361 votes (out of 720); voting is secret and experience shows that it is not easy to row despite a seemingly majority support.
A watershed moment in European politics?
Simon Hix, professor of political science at the European University Institute, said that in addition to the presidential game that is in full swing after the European Parliament elections, this struggle is in some ways a sign that the balance of power in the parliament may be undergoing a fundamental change. A few days ago, Hix published an interesting post on X (formerly Twitter), in which he pointed out that the influence of right-wing groups (mainly EPP and ECR) is increasing, while the position of left-wing parties is weakening; perhaps the time has come for left-wing parties to become opposition parties (again).
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