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Janusz
Bugajski
project
August 11, 2024 – 11:24
Despite summits and statements, the Euro-Atlantic Alliance (NATO) is not prepared for the coming war in Europe. The continent faces three major threats: American isolation, Russian war appetite, and NATO’s lack of preparedness.
The unpredictable outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election in November has heightened concerns that Europe will have to fend for itself without American leadership. Some European leaders were somewhat relieved when Biden announced he would not run for reelection, but they remain concerned that pro-transatlantic Vice President Kamala Harris may not be able to defeat the highly unpredictable Donald Trump.
Trump’s criticism of NATO, his calls for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Europe and his isolationist and profit-focused instincts have traditional allies worried.
He could weaken the Euro-Atlantic alliance without formally ending U.S. membership. Trump would demand that all European countries increase their defense spending significantly, and his focus would be on the Far East, where many of his advisers see China as the main threat to the United States.
Although Trump will maintain the nuclear umbrella over Europe, as well as air bases and naval forces, remaining ground forces will likely be withdrawn, as the United States will no longer provide vital combat equipment. In addition, Trump will halt any further expansion of NATO in the Western Balkans or Eastern Europe.
The EU itself will be less likely to accept new members if countries are embroiled in internal and external conflicts (which are intensifying due to less American involvement).
Even as the world becomes more dangerous and conflict-prone, Trump’s foreign policy does not put the United States in the lead, but instead promotes an “America First” strategy reminiscent of the isolationists before and during World War II.
Despite Trump’s boasts that he will restore global peace, even his former national security officials are not convinced by his strategy. Basically, Trump will pursue any policy that benefits him personally and that he can “sell” to his supporters as a success, even if it means cozying up to the dictators in Russia, China, and Serbia.
Russia is a growing threat to European security, especially if it persists in its war against Ukraine and replenishes its military. Several Central and Eastern European governments have warned that Russia must be completely defeated in Ukraine to prevent a more comprehensive war in the next two or three years. Russia could launch a non-large-scale attack on NATO territory, especially one of the Baltic states, and Moscow would be encouraged if the United States did not object. Putin could calculate that Trump would not intervene and risk a real war with Russia.
Without U.S. leadership, a European NATO could be too weak and vulnerable to respond to Russian provocations or new violence fomented by Belgrade or Banja Luka in the Balkans.
NATO has three major flaws: psychological, military, and human. Psychologically, people are not ready for war, and some Western European leaders are busy shoring up their meager defenses. Only the Eastern flank, led by Poland, seems to be making extensive preparations for war with Russia.
Warsaw has been increasing its defense spending and expanding its armed forces. Poland is already NATO’s largest defense spender as a percentage of GDP. It has also doubled the number of its armed forces to 300,000. It has the third-largest army in NATO and the largest in Europe, behind the United States and Turkey and well ahead of France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom.
Although NATO has identified Russia as a growing military threat and has increased its military stockpiles over the past decade, it may not be enough without U.S. leadership. To be effective, European NATO needs to focus on social mobilization, industrial capacity, and defense spending. It needs to rebuild its defense industry and expand its regular and reserve forces.
While some governments have reintroduced or expanded conscription, they are still considering how to mobilize millions of soldiers if hostilities break out.
NATO is not a centralized authority, not even an alliance like the European Union, where all countries are free to pursue their own security policies, without the pooling of production and military resources. A major test will come when a NATO member state is attacked by Russia, even if the attack is initially small. A Western consensus may be difficult to achieve, especially without the presence of the United States. Instead, we are likely to witness the emergence of a mini-NATO “on the whim”. These will include countries committed to expanding their military capabilities and willing to fight because they see Russia as an existential threat that must be defeated regardless of US policy. / Dita newspaper
Clarification: All opinions in this column reflect solely the opinions of the author and not necessarily those of NGB “Zeri” LLC
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