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One can understand that Belarusian leaders would like to cautiously slow down the process of Eurasian integration across stages, but Russia is unlikely to allow this.
January 1 Effective The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) Customs Code will replace a similar instrument for the Customs Union that has been in force since mid-2010.
As experts point out, the new legislation was developed taking into account the current level of development of electronic technologies and contains many innovations that are useful for entrepreneurs.
Long-suffering code
Despite this assessment, the fate of the code is hardly smooth sailing. I remember a year ago Alexander Lukashenko explain “Everything that was agreed upon has been violated… We must make a clear decision: either we go for deep integration of the country or we don’t.” The president even threatened to “optimize” Belarus’ participation in the Eurasian Economic Union.
As a result, Minsk Signature customs code Four months later than other partners — and only after a protracted oil and gas dispute with Russia was resolved. But the resentment does not seem to have dissipated.
The code has been approved by both houses of the National Assembly Signed by the PresidentHowever, this does not mean that integration will now move forward by leaps and bounds. On the contrary, both recent statements by senior officials and recent expert opinions indicate that the Belarusian leadership has decided to “pause” the Eurasian integration process.
Kobyakov: Putting the cart before the horse
In particular, at the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council meeting held in Yerevan at the end of October, the Prime Minister of Belarus Andrei Kobyakov Very critical remarks were made about the current state of the Eurasian Economic Union and demands that the accumulated problems be resolved today.
A prominent stone in a Moscow garden is Kobyakov’s statement that the Eurasian Economic Union “So, in a sense, they’ve put the cart before the horse,” That is, they form a system of supranational institutions before the economic base and the common market, as was the case with the creation of the European Union.
The study “Eurasian Economic Union: Integration between Ideals and Reality” prepared by the Minsk Dialogue Experts Initiative discusses in detail the coral reef problems caused by the Eurasian integration promoted by Moscow.
The authors of the work list the following main obstacles:
– Smaller players fear the possibility of being absorbed by larger partners (e.g. Russia);
– Different levels of market economy maturity;
– The economic transformation process is incomplete;
– Use of protectionist measures to protect national production sectors.
To make the last point clear, we can cite the regular restrictions imposed by Rosselkhoznadzor on the entry of Belarusian products into the Russian market.
But the biggest complaint of Minsk officials has to do with Moscow’s complete unwillingness to start forming a common market for gas, oil and oil products.
In the process of preparing the integration agreement, Russia put pressure on Belarus to postpone the achievement of this goal until 2025. Moreover, today, according to Kobyakov, “There is clearly an attempt to drag this issue out even longer.”
The manipulation of gas prices demonstrates the possibility of this development. At the autumn session of the House of Representatives, deputies will have to approve a protocol on amendments to the gas agreement with Russia, which would exclude the market (equal) price clause for gas supplies to Belarus. In other words, Moscow has in fact achieved the cancellation of its previous obligations.
But at the same time, Belarus’ gas costs are promised to fall over the next two years – from $143 per thousand cubic meters this year to $129 next year and to $127 in 2019. However, if Russia for some reason suddenly intends to raise this price again later, then there will be nothing for the Belarusian side to officially appeal against …
Moscow may be pinching its fingers
Notably, the official media was quick to publicize the conclusions of the Minsk talks. People’s Daily In particular, the comments of the head of the “Freedom Club” were published Yevgeny Pregmanwith the eloquent title “A Pause is Needed.”
There is no doubt that the Belarusian authorities agree with the experts’ arguments. Since the main thrust of their recommendations is the need to suspend any new decisions within the Eurasian Economic Union until the previously reached agreements are implemented, it is suspected that the Belarusian leadership has decided to slow down the process of Eurasian integration.
Under current conditions, such an intention makes sense. However, it is not at all clear how it will be implemented. This is mainly because if Russia sees this position in Minsk as a bold challenge and a threat to the well-educated country Vladimir Putin The consequences of the Eurasian Union project for Belarus will almost certainly be extremely negative.
Against the backdrop of deteriorating relations with the West, the Kremlin urgently needs to consolidate its few allies. Their willfulness is not particularly encouraged at such a difficult historical moment. Of course, Moscow has enough ways to pinch the fingers of disloyal partners.
By the way, the Belarusian Foreign Minister may have issued a warning in this regard during his working visit to Moscow on November 14-15. Vladimir Makei.
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