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In July 2024, civil engineering business managers were much less optimistic about their past activities than in April, one reason being the unfavorable climatic conditions they may face. However, they were reported to be slightly more optimistic about the expected development of the workforce.
Corporate managers’ evaluation of their past activities has declined significantly
In July 2024, managers were much more pessimistic about the development of activity over the past three months than in April, and the associated balance of opinions was well below the long-term average. This drop in opinion can be partly explained by the unfavorable climatic conditions that their companies are likely to face, as last spring was particularly rainy. The associated balance of opinions fell sharply and is well below the average, both when differentiating between customer types and without differentiating between them. The balance of past activity for all customer types is at a level that has not been measured since 2015 (excluding the corona crisis period).
GraphicsPublic Works Economic Outlook
Balance of opinion, expressed as % SA
| Average* | October 23 | January 24 | April 24 | July 24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past Events | -5 | -6 | -2 | 1 | -twenty one |
| Past activities in the public sector | -11 | -18 | -11 | -6 | -27 |
| Past activities in the private sector | -9 | -12 | -6 | -3 | -twenty two |
| Expected Activities | -11 | -12 | 0 | -8 | -7 |
| Expected activities of the public sector | -15 | -19 | 2 | -15 | -12 |
| Expected private sector activities | -14 | -11 | -10 | -9 | -7 |
| Views on the order book | -twenty three | -19 | -14 | -20 | -17 |
| Barriers to increasing production due to labor shortage (%) | 18 | forty five | 41 | forty five | 33 |
| Expected Workforce | -11 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 8 |
| Feeling of economic uncertainty** | twenty four | 31 | twenty one | 16 | twenty two |
- Note: The balance of client opinions may differ from the overall balance because sometimes companies do not distinguish between public and private sector projects.
- * Average of the balance of views on economic uncertainty since January 1981 and since April 2021.
- ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted
- Source: INSEE and FNTP
GraphicsActivities in the field of civil engineering
| Past Events | Expected Activities | |
|---|---|---|
| Third quarter of 2024 | -21.0 | -6.6 |
| Second quarter of 2024 | 1.0 | -8.2 |
| Q1 2024 | -1.9 | 0.0 |
| Fourth quarter of 2023 | -6.3 | -12.3 |
| Q3 2023 | -14.0 | -12.6 |
| Second quarter of 2023 | -6.9 | -9.1 |
| Q1 2023 | 4.5 | -14.7 |
| Fourth quarter of 2022 | -2.7 | -5.1 |
| Third quarter of 2022 | 5.8 | -16.3 |
| Second quarter of 2022 | 1.4 | -14.3 |
| Q1 2022 | -5.0 | -3.1 |
| Fourth quarter of 2021 | -1.6 | 7.4 |
| Third quarter of 2021 | 15.9 | 6.8 |
| Second quarter of 2021 | -11.0 | -8.6 |
| Q1 2021 | -8.7 | -21.4 |
| Fourth quarter of 2020 | 4.3 | -28.9 |
| Third quarter of 2020 | -90.0 | 18.6 |
| Second quarter of 2020 | South | South |
| Q1 2020 | 19.6 | -5.5 |
| Fourth quarter of 2019 | 29.7 | 11.1 |
| Third quarter of 2019 | 29.6 | 19.2 |
| Second quarter of 2019 | 37.0 | 22.6 |
| Q1 2019 | 33.2 | 25.1 |
| Fourth quarter of 2018 | 43.4 | 26.9 |
| Third quarter of 2018 | 29.2 | 28.2 |
| Second quarter of 2018 | 28.0 | 32.5 |
| First Quarter 2018 | 36.8 | 22.3 |
| Fourth quarter of 2017 | 32.4 | 31.6 |
| Third quarter of 2017 | 35.3 | 28.6 |
| Second quarter of 2017 | 28.2 | 19.4 |
| First Quarter 2017 | 12.3 | 3.1 |
| Fourth quarter of 2016 | 9.4 | -5.5 |
| Third quarter of 2016 | -5.6 | -1.0 |
| Second quarter of 2016 | -16.8 | -15.4 |
| First quarter of 2016 | -18.5 | -15.6 |
| Fourth quarter of 2015 | -37.5 | -15.0 |
| Third quarter of 2015 | -41.0 | -31.7 |
| Second quarter of 2015 | -50.2 | -43.5 |
| First quarter of 2015 | -59.9 | -42.3 |
| Fourth quarter of 2014 | -60.3 | -54.5 |
| Third quarter of 2014 | -45.6 | -48.4 |
| Second quarter of 2014 | 4.2 | -30.4 |
| First quarter of 2014 | -4.2 | -25.6 |
| Fourth quarter of 2013 | 3.3 | -15.6 |
| Third quarter of 2013 | -7.4 | -11.9 |
| Second quarter of 2013 | -18.4 | -13.5 |
| First quarter of 2013 | -11.3 | -13.3 |
| Fourth quarter of 2012 | -9.8 | -26.5 |
| Third quarter of 2012 | -22.6 | -7.6 |
| Second quarter of 2012 | -12.9 | -6.8 |
| First quarter of 2012 | 7.0 | -12.4 |
| Fourth quarter of 2011 | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| Third quarter of 2011 | 26.5 | 0.1 |
| Second quarter of 2011 | 36.8 | 2.3 |
| First quarter of 2011 | -32.5 | 0.0 |
| Fourth quarter of 2010 | -7.9 | -17.9 |
| Third quarter of 2010 | -15.9 | -23.9 |
| Second quarter of 2010 | -33.7 | -20.5 |
| First quarter of 2010 | -23.1 | -16.7 |
| Fourth quarter of 2009 | -33.3 | -16.1 |
| Third quarter of 2009 | -50.5 | -34.0 |
| Second quarter of 2009 | -48.8 | -52.0 |
| First quarter of 2009 | -55.3 | -50.6 |
| Fourth quarter of 2008 | -30.5 | -47.6 |
| Third quarter of 2008 | -10.8 | -26.0 |
| Second quarter of 2008 | 16.3 | -16.0 |
| First quarter of 2008 | 20.1 | 2.7 |
| Fourth quarter of 2007 | 22.8 | 14.6 |
| Third quarter of 2007 | 36.2 | 13.9 |
| Second quarter of 2007 | 39.7 | 21.5 |
| First quarter of 2007 | 39.0 | 16.9 |
- As data for the second quarter of 2020 have not yet been released, the response rate of this survey was significantly affected in April due to the health crisis.
chartActivities in the field of civil engineering
- As data for the second quarter of 2020 have not yet been released, the response rate of this survey was significantly affected in April due to the health crisis.
- Source: FNTP and INSEE.
However, there has been little change in the views of corporate managers on expected activity over the next three months: the corresponding balance of opinion has remained almost stable and is slightly above its long-term average. For managers who differentiate between the type of client (either private or public), the balance of opinion has increased slightly and remains above average.
Compared to April, slightly more business managers believe that the development of the situation in their company is difficult to predict: the balance of opinion on perceived economic uncertainty has rebounded.
Compared with April, the order volume increased slightly
In July 2024, the balance of opinion among business managers on order levels had rebounded and remained above the long-term average.
Job prospects have improved
The balance of opinion on changes in the size of the labor force over the next three months has also rebounded in July 2024. It is significantly above the long-term average.
The difficulties caused by insufficient manpower have been significantly reduced, but they are still serious.
In July 2024, 33% of companies reported facing difficulties due to lack of manpower. Although this is a 12 percentage point decrease this quarter, this proportion is still higher than the long-term average.
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