In the contest between Xi Jinping and Biden, a new global order is taking shape with difficulty | Simon Tisdale

CThe race for leadership in the fast-evolving new world order of the 21st century is heating up. U.S. President Joe Biden seeks a winning strategic partnership with Narendra Modi’s India. The European Union unveils an economic security strategy to fend off Chinese and Russian predators. In Beijing, Xi Jinping tells America’s top diplomat who’s in charge: China.

exist ParisMeanwhile, leaders from the global North and South plan a fresh start. The goal: to deliver on the billions of dollars pledged last year. 27th United Nations General AssemblyHelping vulnerable countries fight Climate crisis and the associated poverty, inequality and debt. Poorer countries are calling for an overhaul of the global institutional framework, which they say has failed.

It’s been a busy week. But why the rush? Recent crises seem to have convinced countries that things can’t go on like this. The impact of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the deepening climate crisis and the tightening of the cost of living, including energy, food supply and inflation shocks, are prompting an urgent rethinking of how the world should develop. Will work and who will manage it in the coming decades.

A rare moment of sea change may have arrived, similar to what happened after the defeat of fascism in 1945 or when the Soviet empire collapsed in 1991. Confidence in the Western neoliberal model and the unfettered free-market capitalism championed by Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher is fading. Subsidies and state intervention are back in fashion. Globalization is in retreat. The unheard are demanding to be heard.

Respect for the United Nations and the international rules-based order is clearly waning. A deadlocked Security Council is in danger. Developing countries believe that the global regulatory system represented by the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the World Trade Organization is not fit for purpose. UN-led peacekeeping and conflict resolution seem ineffective.

The long-term geopolitical and security implications of this changing ideological and structural environment are enormous and destabilizing. The U.S. approach, shaped by Biden and his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, is to maintain the so-called benign U.S. Global Leadership While ensuring that foreign policy serves the domestic economic interests of the American “middle class.”

This means, for example, no more free trade agreements that lead to the “export” of American jobs and investment to low-wage, low-tax economies, and no more sanctions on countries that oppose American goals. The rise of Donald Trump in 2016, like the rise of right-wing populism in Europe, was driven by a clear decline in the incomes, security, and life chances of working people. Biden seeks to reverse that.

That’s why the White House met with India’s prime minister last week. Biden offered Modi defense and technology deals and lavished praise on him. It wasn’t because the United States suddenly developed genuine affection for the Hindu nationalist leader notorious for abusing his power. human rights and media freedom.

That’s because Biden wants Modi to help him contain China economically and militarily — and maintain U.S. excellenceApparently, this is the price of doing business in the competition for world domination.

Xi Jinping is another human rights violator who has his own vision for the world order in the 21st century. Of course, this also puts him in the lead. China is the big winner of globalization. Now, China’s economy fall and its international posture, with threats of force and Active debt diplomacyBut Xi Jinping, who has just been appointed de facto president for life, is doubling down.

Xi’s world order is based on non-interference in other countries’ internal affairs, meaning that a country’s lack of democracy or internal repression is its own business and no one else’s. It’s basically a tyrant’s charter, and for that reason, it’s anathema to the West. No wonder U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken felt so uncomfortable during his visit to Beijing last week. Although Blinken secured a meeting with Xi, the Chinese leader refused to sit next to him, preferring to talk from a distance. The visit yielded no substantive results, while highlighting the Ideological divide. Then Biden made another mistake, calling Xi Jinping “dictator” He said suddenly honestly.

Beijing’s attempts to reshape the world in its own authoritarian image help explain the E.U.’s first Economic Security StrategyIt calls for new controls on sensitive technology and military exports, outsourcing and inward investment. It is part of a larger effort to build autonomy and resilience in an increasingly lawless world while reducing Europe’s reliance on Russian energy blockades. China is a primary target of the strategy.

Is it inevitable that the 21st century will become a bipolar world like the second half of the 20th century? Multipolar The world could be safer, fairer, and potentially more beneficial. However, this involves a concept that, with the possible exception of Northern Ireland, is unfamiliar to both the US president and the Chinese government: power-sharing.

But the tide is turning. Middle powers like Brazil, Nigeria, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are demanding a bigger say in global affairs, and some are gaining clout. Weaker nations are also making their voices heard on existential issues like climate, poverty, conflict and migration. They say time is running out – and they are right.

These countries have found impressive champions Mia MotleyBarbados Prime Minister Alan Mottley supports a transformative approach to addressing climate challenges and global development, including a historic Wealth redistribution to poorer countries. This is a major break from the old ways. But the old ways are badly broken.

What kind of new global order will emerge? Clearly, the old great power game is unsustainable when the planet is on fire, the ice is melting, and existing rules are ignored. To survive, let alone thrive, in the 21st century, the world needs to replace nationalism, zero-sum confrontations, and power blocs with a fairer, truly multipolar system.

In short, political leaders need to have the courage to change. It may sound unlikely. But as the saying goes, anything is possible if you work hard enough.