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SAN JOSE, July 22 (OCI/UCR). – JaguarUntil recently it had seemed strong and fast, leaping over treetops and picking up prey, but now it looked more tired and Walk instead of running.
This metaphor illustrates National economic situationit comes from Growth calculation 4.37% this year (completed in April) 3.13%According to the latest estimates Institute of Economic Sciences The Institute of International Economic Cooperation and Development (IICE) of the University of Costa Rica (UCR) Economic Quarterly Analysis: Q1 2024 and Q3 2024 Forecast, published on July 22 this year.
According to IICE estimates, This year’s GDP growth rate will be between 3.21% and 3.51%.This is a significant decrease compared to the range calculated in April (from 3.99% to 4.75%). In addition, the growth rate in the third quarter is expected to be between 2.88% and 3.38%.
It is important to remember that The national economy grew by 5.1% last yearThis was one of the reasons why Bank of America compared it to a “jaguar” last February, but growth in the first quarter of 2024 was only 3.6%.
One of the reasons to explain this phenomenon is Special system production slowed down significantly year-on-year: From 16.09% in the first quarter of last year to 6.20% in the first quarter of 2024
Apart from, The final system has not yet been established.from 2.77% in the first quarter of last year to 3.22% in the same period of 2024, an increase of only 0.45 percentage points (pp).
According to IICE, part of the explanation is that Export sector growth rate declinesMainly precision and medical equipment, which declined sharply. From the perspective of domestic demand, only household spending increased significantly year-on-year. For its part, the construction industry slowed down last year.
Household consumption supports domestic demand
he family expense Costa Ricans are still The only project to show a positive year-on-year changejust as it happened in the previous quarter. This time household consumption accounted for 2.54% of GDP, compared to 2.26% in the same period last year.
For their part, Changes in government investment and consumption are barely perceptible (0.05% and -0.1% respectively), which has been the norm since the fourth quarter of last year.
About Growth Household final consumption expenditureup from 3.63% in the first quarter of 2023 to 4.12% In the first quarter of this year, if we break down this percentage, we can see that 2.22 percentage points (pp) correspond to services and 1.15 percentage points to non-durable goods. In turn, semi-durable goods increased by 0.45 percentage points and durable goods by 0.30 percentage points.
If economic activities are taken into account, the largest contribution to the interannual GDP growth in the first quarter was from professional, scientific and technical activities, which accounted for 0.79 percentage points. Almost all other activities had small but positive growth, with the exception of construction, which contributed -0.10 pp.
Career Recovery
this Occupancy rate Year-on-year Recovered 2,2 % between the first quarter of 2023 and the same quarter this year. operating hours In the main work The year-on-year growth rate has slowed down in a 1.1%.
Segmented By work activity, 7 of the 14 people assessed experienced an increase in employment (+5,75 pages)emphasizing that trade and repair (1.39 pp) and public administration (1.35 pp) are the most important. The other seven branches contracted (-2.83 pp)the decline was most significant in the construction industry (-1.24 percentage points), followed by households as employers (-0.80 percentage points).
Refers 2.5% increase in productivity per hour worked The number of hours worked in primary jobs also increased compared to the same period last year. However, IICE has reservations, believing that this increase is lower than the GDP growth.
Price reduction
Consumer Price Index (Industrial control computer） It remained below zero until June this year.More than 12 months later, this remains the case. However, the IICE reports that the rate of change is increasing: the CPI in June was -0.03%, a small increase of 0.30 percentage points from the inter-annual indicator in May.
also, Industrial control computer The annual percentage, excluding fuel, food and regulated goods, is 0.79% June, making this the second consecutive month above zero after 11 months of negative numbers.
According to analysis, the price The service industry is the only factor that pushes up the annual CPIOther products, such as food and beverages, commodities and transport, continued to show negative effects, adding up to –0.34 percentage points, although this figure was closer to 0 than the figures recorded in previous months.
he IICE expects CPI to continue to rise in the coming months and is close to the inflation range predicted by the Central Bank of Costa Rica (Bacterial resistance): between 2% and 4%. It is important to remember that this is different from Latest business expectations survey In the third quarter, 18.4% of business people said they thought prices would rise, while 6.45% thought they would fall.
Interest rates fall, exports grow
IICE report: central bank cuts interest rates again Monetary Policy Rate （Trusted Platform Management) In April, the indicator was encrypted 4.75%This is the third consecutive decrease this year, marking a downward trend that began in March last year.
As for Cumulative export volume in the past 12 monthsthe trend at the beginning of the year continues: these They continue to grow (and outpace) imports. IICE data showed that exports grew 9.9% and imports increased 3.8% through May. All this is taking into account that the colon has appreciated 5.4% against the dollar between May 2023 and the same month this year.
he Final system reported May 2023 to 2024 34% of total exports (A decrease of nearly 3 percentage points from May 2022 to 2023) and 80% of importswhich leaves special regimes (where free zones exist) accounting for 66% of exports and 20% of imports.
The above means Special system exports increased by 14.5% Between May 2022 and 2023, The final increase was only 1.9%In terms of imports over the same period, imports under the final regime increased by 7%, while imports under the special regime decreased by 7.5%.
Finally, IICE confirmed The influx of tourists into the country also continues to increase significantlyas a post-pandemic impact: Nearly 2.9 million people entered the country between 2023 and 2024.
Of course, this also directly affects Quantity of currency Entering national territory, It hasn’t stopped growing either.: In December last year, each tourist contributed an average of $1,516, while by April 2024, this figure reached $1,681.
Economic Quarterly Analysis Q1 2024 – Forecast Q3 2024:
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