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Former US President and presidential candidate Donald Trump was attacked last Saturday when a gunman attempted to assassinate him. Trump suffered only a minor wound to his right ear and was evacuated on foot alone. Media reports said he was otherwise fine.
As a very media figure and the virtual candidate of the Republican Party in the next US presidential election, the news shocked the world. The widest image This is a bloody, defiant Trump with his right fist raised, looking strong despite his age, a survivor of a brutal bullet that grazed him at close range. In the video, you can read from his lips that in addition to raising his fist, he also shouted “fighting!” (Struggle!).
In the heat of the campaign, the image of Trump, a survivor of an assassination attempt, strong and defiant, was contrasted with that of President Biden, who appeared old and frail, even though the two men are almost the same age: Trump is 78 and Biden is 81. It is not just the three years of age that make the difference, but the perception of the image each character evokes.
(frasepzp1)
And, similar to failed assassination attempts throughout history, such as the July 20, 1944, attempt on Adolf Hitler or the March 31, 1981, attempt on Ronald Reagan, the event has the effect of empowering the surviving victims. Snap polls and other preliminary measures already reflect that the failed attack is politically beneficial to Trump, and if Biden does not abandon the campaign, the odds of a Democratic upset over Trump are growing.
Normally, these ups and downs of U.S. policy would be a strange, relatively distant thing to Guatemala and the rest of Central America. But we know that this is not the case, and some of the far right and the most radical opponents of President Arevalo’s government are celebrating Trump’s actual victory. Others, on the left, in the center, and even on the moderate right, especially Arevalo sympathizers, are expressing fear and great trepidation about what might happen. Pendulum stroke Trump will resume office as President of the United States from January 2025.
Both reactions point to very important structural weaknesses in democratic regimes throughout Central America. But perhaps the most acute case is the Guatemalan event, where the administration of President Biden was always considered to have excessive influence, or even interference, in the 2023 electoral process, a transition that culminated in a change of government in January 2024 and the formation of a formal coalition in the Congress of the Republic. The evidence shows how uneasy this question is for many: would Arévalo have been in power without the influence or interference of the US government?
Our answer to this question is to measure the importance and type of consequences that an attack like this one against Trump would have on Guatemala. Prudence and strategy may signal the urgent need for the government of President Arevalo to adjust relations with the United States towards a more balanced and institutionalized relationship with both the Democratic and Republican parties. This is because if Trump wins and is re-elected (which seems more likely today), it will not be a horrific scenario with dire consequences.
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