Guatemala to transition from heat wave to heavy rains

The statistics are enough to make us sweat: We’re not even into the fifth month of the year, but it’s already the hottest May in Guatemala since 1970. At least 54 years.

If such annual climate measurements were not enough, experts reveal that other records confirm an irreversible change in average temperatures over the past decade, with increases registered in cities that pride themselves on being cold (Quetzaltenango) and, strangely enough, thermometers that are currently experiencing unprecedented heat (Cobán).

With climate change like this, it’s no surprise that the forecasts for the coming months are less optimistic, as we’ll move from the heat waves that are prevalent now to equally unusual events, but marked by heavy precipitation.

In this worrying landscape, so-called climate change must receive increasing attention. If we look at the evidence, it is an undeniable change that will affect the entire planet.

A recent analysis confirms that climate events have intensified. Despite the El Niño climate phenomenon this year, the heat has been so intense that statistics suggest that, on average, we have just experienced four historic weeks of heavy rainfall and prolonged drought.

Talking about climate, weather, climate variability, and climate change is not the same. While weather and climate are atmospheric conditions in specific geographic regions and seasons, climate variability and climate change represent shifts in those conditions, whether permanent, significant, or temporary.

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The recent heatwave stems from a climate change phenomenon known as El Niño: unusually warm waters in the Pacific Ocean, which leads to higher temperatures. In other words, it’s a temporary change as long as the phenomenon persists, and it has happened before in different years. Even so, this time the temperature change has reached a higher level.

Climate change doctor Paris Rivera explains it this way: “El Niño and La Niña give us warm or cool temperatures, and they are cycles that occur every four, five or seven years. There are differences, but climate change is changing that natural variation. Then what we normally perceive is no longer normal.”

Warmer temperatures are common in El Niño years, but not to the extent that they are reasonable during this period. Given that climate change translates into significant shifts, the intensification of hot weather this year is a real impact.

Statistical research carried out by Rivera himself between 1970 and 2024 showed that this May the highest average temperatures of the month were recorded in a sample of the following popular towns: La Flaga, Santa María Cajaben, Flores, Chisoy, San Agustin Acaçaguastlán and Panços.

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“This high temperature is caused by climate change on the one hand and natural changes on the other hand,” he stressed.

It’s the weather in general, not just the heat

Heat isn’t the only thing that’s changing, the overall climate has also changed. “To say climate change is to say that yes, I, as a human, am changing the natural climate, so what we perceive now is arguably no longer the natural climate, but has been altered by the components of the natural climate that are humans,” the expert warned.

Rainfall, drought and fire become extreme events. “In recent years, we have seen an increase in extreme events, floods, earthquakes, storms, droughts… Extreme events are when some values ​​exceed the average. This coincides with the perceived warming and climate change,” continues the expert, who is also a civil engineer with a master’s degree in water resources.

Therefore, during this hot period, although the rain is delayed, it will still rain. Precipitation needs heat to intensify. The higher the temperature, the heavier the rain.

To better understand this, Rivera explained: “This is attributed to climate change because with increased warming, it is easier to form storm cyclones. One of the ingredients you need for tropical cyclones to form is ocean temperature, and if the ocean temperature is warmer than normal, then we already have an ingredient there; there are other factors, of course, but this is already considered a significant factor influencing the formation of more storms.

Rainfall patterns are also changing. If before a certain amount of rain fell over a specific period of time, now the same amount of rain can fall over a shorter period of time.

«In a month of rain we talk about September. Generally speaking, somewhere in September there are about 250 millimeters of rainfall, but these 250 millimeters of rainfall were spread over, for example, 25 days, which can be said to be a lot. Now, instead of falling after 25 days, they fall after 15 days, and the magnitude can be the same. Then the same amount in a short time can cause problems, ”he concluded.

Poor urban design also affects

In addition to changes in the intensity of climate events, the physical, social and even political environment also influences climate sensitivity and change itself. Buildings and their materials, planning policies and citizen behavior create the conditions for maladaptation to change.

“We use poor design at the urban level and poor choice of materials, so the city itself retains a lot of the energy consumed throughout the day; that’s why we also have more heat, which is the responsibility of urban design and planning, the same materials we choose for our houses, roofs, etc.”, commented America Alonso, an architect and researcher at the Rafael Landivar University’s Institute of Natural Sciences and Technology (IARNA), who studies the climate of urban spaces.

Rivera and Alonso agree that over the years, citizens’ actions have created pollution that has begun to affect temperature and climate, in part triggering climate change due to higher temperatures and rainfall.

«Guatemala is vulnerable. We are building without protection measures and without assessing the climate or the vulnerability. The drizzle the other day caused some streets to flood, which is already a very serious vulnerability in the area. I heard on the news that the Guatemalan City Government is cleaning the sewers and removing a lot of garbage such as mattresses, sofas, washing machines and even dead bodies. So the lack of culture among the people means that the drainage system does not work properly and the water runs away. “, Rivera lamented.

For his part, Alonso mentioned in his conclusion the intensity of heat waves or rainfall, which he attributed not only to climate change but also to human intervention. “All climate impacts that we feel and that affect our well-being have human responsibility,” he asserted.

The future lies in the hands of climate change

Although there are many factors that change the climate, climate change is real and has already caused irreversible changes in certain cases. In Guatemala, for example, two cities have experienced permanent changes in temperature.

The study of Guatemala’s climate characteristics, carried out by the same architect Alonso and IARNA team member Edson Hernández to take into account the architectural design, confirmed that climate change is already at work in the cities of Quetzaltenango and Cobán.

First, in the 80s and 90s, the average temperature remained at 12 degrees. However, from 2010 to today, the trend has shown a new average: 14 degrees. “This change is irreversible,” Alonso commented.

Take the city of Alta Verapaz, for example. Thirty years ago, the average temperature was 24 degrees. But in the past 10 years, the average temperature has dropped to 22 degrees. And this change has not been reversed.

Although these changes may not seem extreme, they are significant because it will not go back to the way it was before. We must understand them in this context, despite the very hot weather in both cities in recent weeks.

It has even been shown that a temperature difference of a few degrees can make a difference in human cognitive development. Harvard University’s Department of Environmental Health and the Program in Risk, Exposure, and Epidemiology analyzed the cognitive development of students who lived in buildings without air conditioning during a heat wave, as well as students who lived in facilities that did so.

The results confirm deficits in cognitive development among students who do not have air conditioning at home and suggest consideration of adaptation measures to maintain educational outcomes, economic productivity, and security in the face of climate change.

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Finally, temperatures are expected to be severely affected by climate change by the end of the century, with average temperatures expected to rise by 4 to 5 degrees. Although rainfall intensity will be greater, the percentage of precipitation is likely to decrease.

“We projected climate change scenarios and we saw accurately that by the end of the century, temperatures are expected to be 4 to 5 degrees higher than they are today. These projections assume that we will continue with the same behaviors and consumption patterns,” Rivera said.

His warning is clear: If the trend continues, there is only one way left: warming.