Falklands referendum won’t bring much change

The Falkland Islands are about to make history as they hold their first official Sovereignty referendum This weekend, about 1,600 islanders will be asked whether they want to retain their current political status as a British overseas territory, and result It’s a foregone conclusion.

The islands were once British Control Since 1833, except for Argentina The Falkland Islands were formally dissolved in 1982 but are now autonomous except for defense and foreign affairs. Argentina claims the Falkland Islands are an integral part of its national territory. reject The islanders insist on their right to self-determination. If the vote is “no”, the Falkland Islands government said: Further referendum There will be meetings on “alternatives”, but this is highly unlikely to happen.

one Informal referendum Previously, the election was held in 1986, when 94.5% of the “Kelpa people” voted in favor of British sovereignty. The islanders are still fighting for their British descentPeople often say they feel More British than Britishand it is unlikely that next week’s results will become more one-sided.

Referendum Plan Announce Last June, shortly after Argentina broadcast a provocative statement, the Falkland Islands government Olympic Games Advertising The drama was secretly filmed on the island.

The case for a referendum is simple. Gavin Short, President of the Falkland Islands Legislative Assembly, said: explain:

“We have carefully considered how to send a powerful message to the outside world that expresses the views of the people of the Falkland Islands in a clear, democratic and indisputable way. Therefore, we have decided to hold a referendum with the full support of the British government to remove any possible doubts about our will.”

Argentina has since launched a diplomatic offensive, and the referendum will take place against a backdrop of rancor and acrimony. President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner opened the New Year with a Open the envelope The letter to British Prime Minister David Cameron, published in two newspapers, called for the resumption of sovereignty talks. The next day, the British newspaper The Sun responded with an article advertise After publishing an article in the English version of the Buenos Aires Herald defending British sovereignty and asking President Fernandez and Argentina not to “meddle” in the islands, a group of Argentines took to the streets of Buenos Aires. Burning the British flag and newspapers.

The past few weeks have been equally painful. Hector Timerman, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Argentina Visited London He had visited Washington for the first time the previous month, but his trip was not satisfactory. He declined an offer to meet with his opponent, William Haig, because the latter insisted that Negotiations will not begin No Islander representatives were present. Timerman responded by Citing UN resolutions He reminded The Hague that the dispute was bilateral. Tell reporters In a press release:

“The United Nations does not recognize that there is a third party in this conflict. It says there are only two parties to this conflict – Britain and Argentina… The Falkland Islanders do not exist. What exists are British citizens living in the Malvinas Islands.”

Argentina’s struggle for the hearts and minds of the islanders, which was the key to its policy in the early 1970s, had long since ceased. Timmerman’s comments further infuriated Anti-Argentina Speaking out before the referendum, this is something he has MeaninglessArgentina’s foreign minister tells British newspaper he wants the Falklands to be under Argentine control Within 20 yearsbut few people believed him.

UK Government No support The Obama administration has maintained a neutral stance in dealing with the dispute. New Secretary of State John Kerry visited William Haig on February 25. Explain to the media Then:

“Our position on the Falklands has not changed. The United States recognizes the de facto administration of the Islands by the United Kingdom, but takes no position on the sovereignty claims of the parties (…) We continue to urge a peaceful resolution.”

The British media’s view is Criticism of Kerry’s refusal But the simple reality is that Washington has adopted exactly the same stance as successive US administrations, which have always viewed the Falklands as an embarrassing thorn in the side of the “special relationship”.

The islands have undoubtedly become more self-sufficient over the past 30 years, but they remain a strange anomaly; 8,000 miles from their “motherland” and There are more sheep than people The ratio is 167:1. Recent oil explorationanother source Anglo-Arab frictionagain producing disappointing results.

Yet every British prime minister since 1968 has recognised the pernicious nature of the sovereignty issue in Parliament. Falklands Lobby Cameron has strong cross-party support. Supporting Islanders’ rights Decide your own destiny. Nuclear-powered submarines Britain sent the ship to the South Atlantic last June to mark the 30th anniversary of the war, a symbolically charged dispute in which it demonstrated Britain’s commitment to the security of the islands, a commitment that has come into question following massive defence cuts.

Cameron once said The referendum “will undoubtedly determine the opinion of the people of the Falkland Islands” and Britain will respect the result. That is beyond doubt. But his hope that Argentina’s government would do the same rings hollow.

The late Argentine writer Jorge Luis Borges once famously said that the Falklands War was like “Two bald men fighting over a combNeither Timellmann nor Hague were born pretty, and although no one expected a military conflict, neither foreign minister backed down in the war of words.

The referendum, which begins on Sunday, is historic but will change little. Once the inevitable is confirmed, the game will move on. Britain will face pressure at the UN and elsewhere to open negotiations. More flags will be burned and the occasional ad may still appear. Gibraltar holds referendum98.5% of residents opposed sharing sovereignty between Britain and Spain. A similar result is expected in Stanley early next week.