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The first batch of American-made F-16 fighter jets are about to arrive in Ukraine from Denmark and the Netherlands, and they will fly over Ukraine this summer, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday.
The length of the process from procuring the fighter jets, training Ukrainian pilots and then flying the fighter jets has infuriated Kiev.
Russia had time to prepare its defenses and try to offset the F-16s, while Ukraine had to make do with weak air defenses that were far inferior to the enemy’s advanced ones.
Below you can read some facts about how the F-16 helped Ukraine and the obstacles Ukraine faced when using the F-16.
Potential impact
Some analysts say the F-16s alone will not be a turning point in Russia’s war of aggression launched in February 2022.
“You have to separate the symbolism from the actual impact on the battlefield – it’s going to be useful but simplistic, especially at first,” said Mark Cancian, senior adviser in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Serhiy Kuzan, director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, a non-governmental think tank, said a major Ukrainian push for Russian aviation over the border would require at least 60 aircraft.
Lawmaker Oleksandra Ustinova, chairwoman of the Kiev parliament’s arms and ammunition committee, said Ukraine needs nearly 120 F-16 jets to significantly bolster its air defense capabilities.
While pilots gain experience in Ukrainian skies and the military builds air infrastructure, the first deliveries could at least help Ukraine strengthen its air defense capabilities, experts said.
“They will provide some air defence capability and perhaps help defend against Iranian-made drones and cruise missiles,” said Justin Bronk, senior fellow in air power and technology at the Royal United Services Institute (Russia).
Kuzan said the Ukrainian military has worked to limit the threat to the F-16 fighter jets in recent months by attacking Russian air defenses.
“The formation of a battlespace, especially in the south, is already happening. “Ukraine has weapons that can sustainably attack the main Russian air defense systems,” he said.
Pilots and maintenance
Training will be critical. “You can have a lot of fast fighters, but if they don’t have effective weapons and crews to operate them with effective tactics, they’re going to fall in droves,” Bronk said.
Training time for Ukrainian pilots using F-16 fighter jets has been a major issue in negotiations over the promised delivery of more than 70 fighter jets to Ukraine.
Ustinova said Ukraine expects to have at least 20 pilots ready to fly the F-16 by the end of this year.
According to her, Ukraine will initially have more F-16 aircraft than qualified pilots.
“It is not okay to wait in line for 10 years before our pilots get trained,” she added.
U.S. officials said questions about training should be directed to Ukraine and stressed that pilots could also be trained in Europe. However, Bronk said NATO’s capacity was already overwhelmed.
He added that aircraft maintenance is a bigger challenge than pilot training.
He stressed that most maintenance and repairs would have to be done within Ukraine, and that Ukraine might have to rely on foreign companies familiar with the aircraft.
Air Force Base Under Threat
Some experts say Russia has stepped up air strikes against infrastructure that could be used to maintain and store F-16 fighter jets.
“Russia is attacking all airfields, potential F-16 bases, and trying to destroy runways and infrastructure every day. These attacks have not stopped in the past two months,” Kuzan said.
By the time the aircraft, pilots and maintenance personnel arrive, the target will be more vulnerable.
This could force Ukraine to deploy anti-aircraft weapons to protect them, even though it faces a shortage of anti-aircraft weapons and ammunition.
“We have to accept the fact that when civilian targets are attacked, the airfields will be well protected,” Kuzan said, adding that each base will need at least two Patriot air defense missiles and two NASAMS batteries to protect it.
“Once we increase our combat capability, we will be able to repel their warplanes and the terror will end. But the first two months will be very difficult,” Kuzan added. /REL
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