Experts agree 2024 could be record storm season: Cayman News Service

(CNS): The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins Sunday, and many weather experts agree that it will not only be a busy season, but one that could break records, as a number of factors converge. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center said in its pre-season forecast that one of the strongest El Nino conditions on record will end with a rapid transition to La Nina.

This climate pattern tends to reduce wind shear in the tropics that favors Atlantic hurricane activity, while abundant ocean heat in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea generates more energy to fuel storms.

But that’s not all.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the West African monsoon is likely to be above normal this year, potentially generating tropical waves that can generate the strongest and longest-lasting storms in the Atlantic Ocean. In addition, weak trade winds allow hurricanes to grow in strength without being disrupted by strong wind shear and minimize ocean cooling.

“Human-caused climate change is causing ocean warming both globally and in the Atlantic basin, melting ice on land and causing sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surges. Sea level rise clearly demonstrates that humans have an impact on the destructive potential of a given hurricane,” NOAA says In a press release. NOAA predicts a total of 17 to 25 named storms, of which up to 13 will become hurricanes, and up to seven of those could become major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

Cayman Islands National Weather Service Director John Tibbetts warned that the weather forecast for this year is “very bad” and urged people to prepare. He said the record sea surface temperatures are very high and of great concern given the impending transition to La Nina.

Tibbetts said that given the very dry weather, this year’s storm season may still be a while away, but once it arrives, storms may be very frequent. However, it is not clear whether the main activity of storms will be in the Atlantic or the Caribbean, where ocean temperatures have broken records.

last month, Colorado State UniversityThe Tropical Weather and Climate Research Team said they expect the probability of major hurricanes making landfall along the continental U.S. coastline and the Caribbean to be well above average. Meanwhile, in a pre-season assessment, Weather forecast The risk of a “rapid intensification” this season was highlighted. This is particularly dangerous because the public will have no time to prepare and it will catch people off guard.

Meteorologists said they were “very concerned that weather conditions across much of the basin could produce a large number of storms that could rapidly intensify,” heightening the risk to life and property. Rapid intensification is when a storm gains significant strength in 24 hours or less. This can affect how quickly a tropical storm becomes a hurricane, or a hurricane jumps one or more categories in less than a day.

Record-breaking temperatures in the region, where Atlantic storms often originate, are particularly concerning in 2024. AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said they “continue to note extremely warm water temperatures across much of the key development region in the Atlantic.” He explained that when warm water is combined with low wind shear and ample moisture, the ingredients are in place for rapid intensification.

The minimum temperature threshold for tropical climate formation is about 80°F, and many areas of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and southwest Atlantic are already warmer than they are now. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic basin have never been as high as they are now on record, da Silva said. In general, the ocean will continue to be heated by the sun throughout August.

“The concern is that as we enter the middle of the tropical season — from late August to early October — sea surface temperatures may continue to exceed last year’s record levels,” da Silva said. “Warmer ocean temperatures create more favorable conditions for tropical development and rapid intensification.”

Da Silva pointed to a stretch of water in the western Caribbean near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands where water temperatures reached 80 degrees and depths reached 600 feet earlier this month.

Representatives from CINWS and Hazard Management Cayman Islands urged people on Cayman Radio Thursday to be well prepared to reduce stress and worry about what could be a very busy season in the Cayman Islands. Tibbetts said the weather service will monitor all systems throughout the season and work with HMCI to operate at peak efficiency to get the most accurate information possible, no matter how large the threat.