Escalation of war between Israel and Hezbollah warns Iran that next war could be in Lebanon

he The Duel Between Israel and HezbollahWith the Israeli strikes on forty targets of these pro-Iranian militias in southern Lebanon and rocket attacks by pro-Iranian militias, Middle East tensions A direct conflict is edging closer between Israel and Iran, an ally of the Islamist paramilitary group based in Lebanon.

Israel was the first to pull the trigger this Sunday: A hundred fighter jets, many of them delivered by the United States, were launched against Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, where the pro-Iranian militia has its main base. According to reports from Tel Aviv, Israeli aircraft were only They keep going Hezbollah intends to launch a massive bombing.

Immediately, Hezbollah responds More than 300 rockets were fired into Israel, particularly at the Gelilot intelligence base, which the Shiites said they had caused serious damage to. According to the Jewish Army, the attack had been in the works for days and was delayed by ceasefire negotiations in Gaza, and its consequences could have been much more serious without Israel’s preemptive strike.

The biggest showdown between Israel and Hezbollah

This is The largest exchange of missiles, bombs and rockets between the two countries’ militaries Since the Gaza war broke out on October 7, Palestinian militants Hamas have invaded Israel, killing 1,200 people and kidnapping more than 250 people.

Israeli bombs kill more than 40,000 Palestinians in GazaIsrael has been accused of genocide before international justice.

Despite only four victims, the scale of the attack was a milestone

When Israel began its assault on the Gaza Strip in October and its subsequent land invasion, Hezbollah also began bombing northern Israeli positions from Lebanon, and since then the confrontation has not stopped, and in Israel’s case has been exacerbated by the assassinations of prominent figures of pro-Iranian Shia militias, such as their top military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut last month.

The assassination was in response to a Hezbollah attack a few days earlier, when a missile fired by pro-Iranian militias killed 12 children and teenagers who were playing on a soccer field in the Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria.

Regardless, the scale of Sunday’s attack constitutes a milestone, even if only Four victims, minor damage to civilians. It was far fewer than the dozens killed by Israelis in Gaza the same weekend, when Jewish forces attacked the city of Khan Yunis in the center of the Gaza Strip.

Goal: To scare Iran with US presence

The purpose is actually different. Israel thus warns Iran of the direction of the next coupthe Islamist regime itself, while prompting Tehran and its Shiite allies across the Middle East to fear that an all-out confrontation with the Jewish state was imminent. deterrence The operation would not have been as effective without the newfound presence of American warships in Middle Eastern waters.

Therefore, Hezbollah’s response was mild because they knew they faced a massacre by the US-backed Israelis. If there is an invasion in Lebanon similar to the 2006 and 1982 invasions, they will stop the Iranians.

Shia militias flashed rhetoric, saying their counterattack against Israel was in fact successful. Hezbollah boasted about showing its strength in the “first phase” of revenge for Shukr’s death, and it had much to say.

The Israeli prime minister issued a nearly identical, but far more credible, threat after the attack. Benjamin Netanyahu: “This is not over,” he asserted.

A Hezbollah spokesman later admitted that Sunday’s attack was carried out “prudently” and aimed at preventing an all-out war against Israel, while the Netanyahu government appears bent on provocations by Iran and its pro-Iranian allies.

Hezbollah encourages Iran to respond

Hezbollah leader Hassan NasrallahGuaranteed that now it is the turn of Iran and the pro-Iranian Yemeni militia Houthis, one of the so-called axis of resistance to Israel, which consists of Shiite paramilitary movements scattered across Syria and Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and other parts of the Middle East.

On July 31, the day after Shukur’s death, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, and Iran promised armed retaliation against Israel. This “execution” not only beheaded Hamas, This is a direct slap in the face of the Ayatollah regime.unable to protect their allies in their capital.

Less than half a year later, Iran was once again pushed into confrontation by Israel

In addition, the day before the Israeli airstrike on Lebanon, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas AlaqiTehran pledged support for the Islamist militias that make up the anti-Israel alliance known as the Axis of Resistance. Support the resistance axis and the oppressed people of PalestineEspecially in Gaza,” the minister said.

Araqi called the alliance “one of the foundations of Israel’s foreign policy.” If Iran does nothing to reaffirm this support, Iran’s image will be very bad. When the most important Shia group in the Resistance Axis and its biggest ally against Israel in the Middle East came under attack.

Less than half a year later, Iran was once again pushed into a confrontation with Israel. Last April, Israel’s attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus killed three senior Iranian officers. Tehran responded by launching a large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel. The attack was announced with great fanfare before it took place. Those Iranian drones and missiles were shot down by aircraft sent by the United States and Israeli air defense missiles, and everything was still a warning, but it did not reach the point of bloodshed.

Israel subsequently bombed Iranian military facilities and key infrastructure, but without major consequences. The two regional powers thus showed their teeth but did not take any decisive steps that would lead to a regional conflict.

Israel’s war compass points to Lebanon after Gaza

That is why Israel’s “deterrence” move on Sunday was so worrisome. It was the second time Israel has pushed its regional enemies into a confrontation, and it comes at a time when Netanyahu is working to end the Gaza component of his aggressive regional policy, confronting his biggest foes, Iran and Hezbollah.

The Israeli prime minister has seen his popularity plummet due to the Gaza war and his disastrous strategy to free hostages held by Hamas (there may be a hundred still in Gaza, and there is no guarantee they are even alive).

However, the prospect of a war against Iran and Hezbollah, preferably in Lebanon, is beginning to change the way Israelis view their prime minister. Netanyahu knows that only through a “planned” and limited war can There was no complete fire. Will be able to avoid him being thrown out the window and possibly facing justice He has been charged with genocide under national and international law.

Netanyahu wants to convince Americans that the real war is against Iran and its allies

Time is running out for “Bibi” Netanyahu. If you want to strike a decisive blow against Iran without such a full-scale war, you have to do it now. The United States is already caught up in the campaign for the presidential election next November, and the Israeli leader wants the protection of the Pentagon if he decides to attack Lebanon on a larger scale.

There are many voices in the United States calling for Israel to massacre Palestinians. If the only news coming out of the Middle East is the destruction of Gaza, then the voices will increase as the election progresses. Here is why, Netanyahu wants to convince Americans that the real war is against Iran and its allies.

This is the version favored by both White House candidates, current Vice President Kamala Harris, who has good connections with the American Jewish lobby, and former President Donald Trump, who, while also pro-Israel, had a more ambiguous attitude.

American Doubles

Regarding Israel’s preemptive strike on Sunday, White House He said he was not involved, but he also admitted Providing “intelligence” to Israel Warned Hezbollah of possible imminent military action.

However, he warned of his unwavering support for Israel. A spokesman for the US National Security Council said: “We will continue to support Israel’s right to defend itself.” Sean Savitt.

The US denied involvement in the attack but admitted providing “intelligence data” to Israel

These measures in support of Israel include the deployment of the aircraft carriers USS Theodore Roosevelt and USS Abraham Lincoln to lead the combat fleet near the Gulf of Oman.

Meanwhile, on another side of its involvement in the Middle East, Washington continues its mediation efforts to achieve a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas that would lead to the release of Israeli hostages.

However, the actions of Netanyahu and his wartime cabinet appear to have prevented such negotiations. They are simply using them to distract attention from their military strategy and buy time to complete their goals of eliminating Hamas in Gaza and weakening their militia allies in Lebanon and Iran. This is an impossible strategy without American support.