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According to preliminary estimates at the end of the month, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May 2024 should rise by 2.2%, just like in April. The stagnation in inflation should be attributed to a slight slowdown in the price of services and tobacco over the year, while energy prices have risen sharply due to base effects. In fact, although energy prices fell in April-May 2024, they fell more sharply in April-May 2023. On a year-on-year basis, prices of manufactured goods and food should remain close to the previous month’s levels.
In one month, consumer prices should remain stable in May 2024 (up 0.5% in April). Price stability should be attributed to a sharp fall in energy prices (especially petroleum products), which was offset by higher food prices and, to a lesser extent, higher prices for manufactured goods. Prices of services and tobacco should remain stable in one month.
In May 2024, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices should increase by 2.7% year-on-year, compared to +2.4% in April. In one month, the index should decelerate (+0.2% compared to +0.6% in the previous month). The difference between the changes in HICP and CPI should be explained by the decline in reimbursements in the health sector and the change in energy prices during the year, which have a larger weight in HICP.
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