Conservative leadership race expected to be a bitter personal battle

Good morning. Seven Conservative MPs – Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman, James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel, Mel Stride and Tom Tugendhat – have said they will run for party leadership. Of these, Cleverly and Tugendhat have officially announced their candidacy.

Given that government ministers need to go on holiday for the next month or so, I think the Conservative leadership election will be the focus of this summer. The 1922 committee’s decision not to screen candidates at all before then means that we will have multiple candidates vying for power during the summer, which seems to be a harbinger of a season of internal division and hatred. (Our story on the full timeline is here .）

I therefore don’t anticipate writing about it again until Parliament adjourns, but for now I’ll offer some thoughts on where things stand at the start of the campaign.

Right, right

When people ask me who will win the Conservative leadership race, all I can say is that I know I don’t know.

Penny Mordaunt’s electoral defeat – a candidate who clearly had some setbacks in the Tory ranks – left the race in tatters. Kemi Badenoch started out in the lead but, like the other candidates, fell away easily.

One reason the outcome of the campaign is so hard to predict is that we know less about party membership than you might think, simply because some members have defected to the Reform Party and the overall impact of this is uncertain.

What I know is that the main battlegrounds in the leadership election are: The Daily Telegraph, The Mail, The Spectator, The BBC and GB News. Member Survey A survey earlier this year showed that more than half of the group watched GB News regularly. Although this survey has always been slightly to the right of the party as a whole, it has always been a reliable indicator of the mood among party activists. Until there is evidence to suggest otherwise, we should continue to regard it as a good indicator of the direction of the opposition.

that’s why James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat Both candidates were in similar positions among MPs, though Cleverley had more credibility on the right wing of the party because he was one of the first MPs to join and the last to leave Boris Johnson’s government. But because both were considered moderates, they said similar things: Labour could be defeated in one term, and I was the candidate who could win. (“I was the candidate who could win” always implies “but you, the party faithful, wouldn’t necessarily like how I did it”.)

At the same time, both candidates, and especially Tugendhat, were willing to repeat the right’s preferred slogans during the campaign. The former security secretary said Britain should withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights if it made it harder for the UK to “control its own borders”.

That means the campaign will come down to which candidate can be most trusted to deliver on their promises as leader: a dynamic that could make the fight deeply personal, as much will depend on how the candidates explain how their character makes them the best choice to be the next leader.

Try it now

I cooked the mushroom and polenta following Claudia Roden’s excellent recipe and Last night, they also performed very well, if I do say so myself. Rodden was interviewed in the Financial Times about and,you can Read here.

Today’s headlines

• ‘Kitchen Sink’ Fiscal Announcements | Rachel Reeves Paving the way for next week’s autumn budget with tax hikesShe blamed what she called “tough decisions” on pressures on public sector pay, the NHS, prisons, defence and other public services.

• First female First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething’s successor is Set as Eluned MorganThe current health minister has previously said the Labour Party has no other candidates running.

• The case is expected to be dismissed Keir Starmer will look for New head of UK civil service The prime minister is planning to break down Whitehall departmental silos to fulfil the government’s “mission” and streamline decision-making, according to party officials.

• Make progress together | Britain and Germany signed what they called The most comprehensive defense cooperation agreement And promised to urgently integrate the UK defense industry into the European supply chain after Brexit.