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WASHINGTON — She’s got Republican donors worried, she’s got huge name recognition and Democratic heavyweights are starting to endorse her.
Top Democrats say Vice President Kamala Harris would be his logical successor if President Joe Biden succumbs to mounting pressure and resigns as the Democratic nominee for the 2024 election.
Now, party donors, activists and officials are asking whether she has a better chance of defeating Donald Trump than Biden, who has repeatedly said he will stay in the race.
Harris, 59, a former U.S. senator and California attorney general, would become the first female president if she becomes the Republican nominee and wins the Nov. 5 election. She would also be the first African American and Asian American to serve as vice president.
Her three-and-a-half-year tenure in the White House got off to a lackluster start, with heavy staff turnover and a portfolio of early policies, including on Central American immigration, that produced no significant successes.
As recently as last year, many inside the White House and on the Biden campaign privately worried that Harris would be a liability on the campaign trail. Democratic officials say that has changed significantly since then, with Harris taking steps on abortion rights and courting support from younger voters.
Some polls support Harris
Recent polls suggest Harris could fare better than Biden against Republican nominee Trump, though she faces a tough race.
A CNN poll released on July 2 showed that voters’ support for Trump was 6 percentage points higher than Biden’s, at 49% to 43%. Harris’ support also lagged behind Trump, at 47% to 45%, within the margin of error.
The poll also found that independents favor Harris 43% to 40% compared to Trump’s 40%, while moderate voters from both parties prefer her 51% to 39%.
After Trump’s televised debate last week with Biden, whose approval ratings are shaky, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Harris and Trump almost tied in support, with 42% supporting Harris and 43% supporting Trump.
Among potential replacements for Biden, only former first lady Michelle Obama polls higher, though she has never expressed interest in running.
Internal polling shared by the Biden campaign after the debate showed Harris had the same chance of defeating Trump as Biden, with 45% of voters saying they would vote for her, compared to 48% who said they would vote for Trump.
Influential Democrats including U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn, a key figure in Biden’s 2020 victory, Rep. Gregory Meeks, D-N.Y. and a senior member of the Congressional Black Caucus, and Rep. Summer Lee, D-Pa., have said Harris would be the best person to lead the campaign if Biden chooses to step down.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has privately sent the same message to lawmakers, a congressional aide said.
Harris is so highly regarded that two Republican donors told Reuters they would rather Trump face Biden than her.
After the June 27 debate, Pauline Lee, a Trump fundraiser in Nevada, said, “I would rather Biden stay in office” than be replaced by Harris, and she believes Biden has proven himself to be “incompetent.”
Some people on Wall Street, an important fundraising center for the Democratic Party, have also begun to express their preferences.
“Biden is already behind Trump and is unlikely to make up that gap given his current campaign. A Harris vice presidency could improve the Democrats’ odds of winning the White House,” said Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at financial services firm Carson Group, after the debate. “At this point, she’s probably more likely to win than Biden.”
Most Americans have a negative view of Harris, just as they do of both presidential candidates.
Pollster Five Thirty Eight said 37.1% of voters support Harris and 49.6% disapprove. By comparison, Biden’s approval rating is 36.9% and disapproval is 57.1%, while Trump’s approval rating is 38.6% and disapproval is 53.6%.
Women, Black voters, Gaza
Since the Supreme Court struck down a woman’s constitutional right to an abortion in 2022, Harris has become the Biden administration’s most important voice on reproductive rights, an issue Democrats are betting on to help them win the 2024 election.
Some Democrats believe Harris could energize Democratic-leaning groups whose enthusiasm for Biden has waned, including Black voters, young voters and those who disapprove of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
“She would galvanize the black, brown and AAPI members of our coalition… She would instantly pull our nation’s frustrated young people back together,” former Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan of Ohio said in a recent op-ed.
He said both Democratic and Republican suburban women may feel more comfortable with her than with Trump or Biden.
As vice president, Harris’ public Israel strategy is identical to Biden’s, though she was the first senior U.S. administration leader to call for a ceasefire in March.
“Simply changing the candidate does not address the core concerns of the movement,” said Abbas Alawieh, a member of the national No Commitment movement, which refused to vote for Biden in the primary because of his support for Israel.
If Biden steps down, there could be competition among other Democrats for the nomination.
Some Democrats say if the party chooses another candidate instead of Harris, it could lose the support of many black voters who were critical to Biden’s victory in the 2020 election.
“There is no alternative to Kamala Harris,” said Adrianne Shropshire, executive director of BlackPAC, a Black voter outreach group.
“If the Democratic Party thinks their problem right now is that their base is confused … then skipping a black woman, a vice president, I don’t think the Democratic Party can actually recover.”
Too left-leaning?
However, some Democratic donors say Harris may have a hard time winning over moderate Democrats and independent voters who like Biden’s centrist policies. Both parties are looking to independents to help them win the presidential election.
“Her biggest weakness is that her public image is associated with the far left wing of the Democratic Party … and the left wing of the Democratic Party cannot win a national election,” said Dmitri Mehlhorn, a fundraiser and adviser to LinkedIn co-founder and Democratic megadonor Reid Hoffman. “If she becomes the nominee, that’s the challenge she’s going to have to overcome.”
Harris will take over the money raised by the Biden campaign and inherit the campaign infrastructure, a key advantage with just four months to Election Day on Nov. 5.
But strategists say any Democratic campaign will still need to raise hundreds of millions of dollars by November to succeed. And in that regard, Harris could be a liability.
“I can tell you we’re having a really hard time raising money for her,” a DNC source said.
Harris lagged behind Biden in fundraising as a presidential candidate ahead of the 2020 election. She dropped out of the race in December 2019, with her campaign reporting $39.3 million in donations that same month. Biden’s campaign reported $60.9 million in donations during the same period.
Yet within 24 hours of Biden nominating Harris as his 2020 running mate, his campaign raised a record $48 million.
Some Democrats say Harris’ background as a prosecutor could shine in a head-to-head debate with Trump.
“She’s very focused, very powerful, very smart, and if she prosecutes Donald Trump for criminal conduct, she’s going to beat the crap out of him,” Mehlhorn said.
Republican attacks on Harris have intensified as she has been nominated as a potential replacement for Biden, with conservative commentators recirculating criticisms of her from the 2020 election, including comments from some Democrats that Harris smiles too much and is untested and unqualified.
Kelly Dittmar, a political science professor at Rutgers University, said the attacks are part of a long history of objectifying and devaluing women of color in politics.
“Unfortunately, racist and sexist attacks and tropes against female campaigners have been common throughout history and continue to this day,” Dittmar said. Rappler.com
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