Can Anwar survive two years?

While five months may not seem like a lot of time, Anwar does have many hurdles to overcome before reaching the halfway point.

Nehru Satyamurthy

Whether we realize it or not, last week on June 24, Anwar Ibrahim’s rule had lasted 19 months.

Since Najib stepped down in 2018, successive Malaysian governments have served shorter and shorter terms.

Najib’s successor, Mahathir, only ruled for 22 months, Muhyiddin, who succeeded Mahathir, ruled for 17 months, and Ismail Sabri, who succeeded Muhyiddin, is currently the shortest-serving prime minister in Malaysia, having served for just 15 months.

Anwar, who succeeded Muhyiddin, was able to break this trend and stayed in office longer than Ismail Sabri and Muhyiddin, which can be considered a small achievement because he was in office for 19 months, breaking the curse of shorter and shorter terms of office for successive Malaysian governments since 2018.

Whether you support Anwar or not, you should give him the credit he deserves and you have to admit that it has not been easy for Anwar to maintain his rule over the past 19 months.

There are not many things going for Anwar’s Mamdani government. On the contrary, the number of things going against it is quite staggering.

Taking all factors into consideration, I think it is no exaggeration to say that the government today is largely controlled by Anwar alone; because without him, I think the Madani government would have collapsed long ago because there were too many things against it and too few things for it.

Under the current circumstances, I think there is only one other politician in Malaysia who can do what Anwar has done, and that is Anwar’s former mentor and nemesis Mahathir. Apart from Mahathir, I doubt if there is any other politician who can maintain a government with few advantages and many disadvantages for 19 months. I think even Mahathir, due to his advanced age, may not be able to do what Anwar has done today.

In my opinion, watching Anwar’s Mamdani government hold out for the past 19 months is like watching a dog or a cat walk on two legs. A dog or a cat walking on two legs may not walk very well, but the fact that it can walk is a remarkable thing. If a cat or a dog can walk 19 steps on two legs, even though you think it can’t walk that way at all, or will fall down after two or three steps, it is indeed an astonishing thing, and when you see it done, you can’t help but clap your hands and say good.

I sincerely believe that the greatest credit for this achievement should go to Anwar.

Through audacity, shamelessness, confidence, flattery, charm, industry, guile, high purpose, ruthlessness, intrigue and subterfuge, he achieved what no one else in the country could have accomplished.

Now I know some of you might ask, is it good for the country that Anwar’s government has lasted this long? But rather than answering that question, I would rather discuss how long Anwar’s government needs to last for a full term.

I don’t know whether the Anwar government itself is good for the country, but I do know that unless we have a government that can last one term, no one in the world will have confidence or respect for our country.

Considering that the maximum ruling term in Malaysia is 5 years, the midpoint will be 2.5 years. Once Anwar crosses the midpoint, I think we can safely conclude that he will be able to rule for a full term because he will then have crossed an end point, which is closer than the starting point.

I don’t even think he has to be in power for two and a half years to cross the halfway point. I think he only has to cross two years to cross the halfway point. Once he celebrates his second anniversary, I think everyone in the country, whether they like it or not, will tend to accept that Anwar will be in power until 2027.

Anwar still has about five months before he celebrates his second anniversary in November 2024.

While five months may not seem like a lot of time, Anwar does have many hurdles to overcome before reaching the halfway point.

In my opinion, subsidy rationalisation is the number one obstacle that will prevent Anwar from ruling until 2024. I remember that my favourite SS15 chicken fried rice was sold at RM9.50. As soon as diesel rationalisation was implemented, the price soared to RM11.50. If Anwar cannot control the inflation that will inevitably occur due to subsidy rationalisation, only God can save his government because the people will oppose it.

Apart from subsidy rationalisation, I would probably pick the fate of the 6 rebel MPs in Parliament as the second biggest challenge that the Anwar government will have to face in the next 5 months. There is no doubt that the position of the 6 rebel MPs in Parliament is untenable. They will have to vacate their seats and hold by-elections in their constituencies. The question, however, is timing. Will the government be able to seize the moment and hold by-elections in the 6 seats to its advantage, or will the course of events push the matter out of the government’s hands, leading to 6 by-elections being held at such an inopportune time that it will not only cause the government to lose 6 seats, but will it also become a referendum on its rule.

Add to that the shenanigans of government ministers who show signs of being seduced by corruption and nepotism, the growing discord among members of the royal family – who are among Anwar’s strongest supporters, and the complications that could arise from international affairs – such as those concerning Belock and its ties to the Gaza war – and they are all challenges that could prevent Anwar from celebrating his second anniversary.