A signal to Russia and its followers: We will always be in touch with you

Since the exact circumstances of the incident were not clear at first – how exactly the terrorist leader was killed, all kinds of speculations, rumors and considerations came: Was it an attack by Israel’s legendary intelligence agency “Mossad” or in coordination with the Israeli Air Force? As some Iranian sources claimed, “from behind a missile launched from ‘Iranian territory’ flew through the window and directly into I. Haniyeh’s bedroom?” The fact that Iranian Intelligence Minister Ismail Khatib boasted last week about his ability to dismantle Mossad’s intelligence network in Iran now sounds ironic.

There are many versions, but they are as important in themselves as the consequences of the attack itself and its causes – this was not a single, isolated attack on the Hamas leadership, and it happened in an unexpected place. First, it was a signal Israel Regardless, he is capable of doing what he promises.

If a terrorist leader is killed in Tehran, the capital of Israel’s enemies, others may also tremble for their lives because no one will feel safe.

That’s not all Shock exist shame For Iran itself, a country that supports terrorist groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah or the Houthi movement, it is also clear that sometimes the only way to punish an enemy is to take the boldest and most shameless actions.

Whatever the consequences of the attack now may be – or Iran His family will retaliate in some way, no doubt, but one thing is clear – there is something to be learned from Israel, and it is already being learned.

This opportunity should not be missed

I. Haniyeh was targeted for a reason. After all, he is the leader of Hamas, which organized the worst terrorist attack against Israelis in Israeli history on October 7 last year.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly promised to destroy Hamas and return all hostages taken in the October 7 attack by the group that provoked the war in the Gaza Strip. According to official Israeli data, Hamas terrorists have killed 1,197 people, mostly civilians, in southern Israel and taken 251 hostages, 111 of whom are still being held in the Gaza Strip, 39 of whom have died, according to the military.

For this and similar terrorist attacks, Israel promises to retaliate, no matter where the enemy hides – in Yemen, Lebanon or the same Iran.

Haniyeh’s arrival in Tehran on Tuesday for the inauguration of new Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian in parliament is an opportunity in itself for Israel. Especially since the Hamas leader is not the only leader of similar terrorist organizations – leaders of the Iranian-backed Islamic Jihad and the Houthis also arrived. In other words, targets converged on Tehran.

I. Haniyeh has spent the most time in Qatar, and he probably feels safer there than during most of his travels – whether in Moscow, Tehran or elsewhere, because the United States also has influence in Qatar, and Qatar does not want the country to go to war with Israel, so it would not even be possible for the Israelis to strike at Haniyeh in Qatar.

At the time, in Tehran, despite tight security measures and the fact that Haniya, with assets worth billions of dollars, had his own residence, Hamas no longer felt as safe as it did elsewhere in Iran.

What matters most, however, is the effect itself: Israel crossed one of its red lines, namely, directly attacked Iranian territory, and received a direct response.

While the escalation phase seems to be under control and over, with the perception that, through behind-the-scenes diplomatic channels and with the mediation of regional and major powers, Iran and Israel avoided a direct military confrontation that neither country wanted, several major events led to the situation this week, where the previous escalation management algorithms may no longer work, and even the oldest principle in the region – an eye for an eye – is not necessarily the most important, as another principle begins to dominate: as soon as possible or later we will reach out to our enemies anytime, anywhere, and nothing will stop us.

Hunting down your enemies – revenge or justice?

As is well known, Israel has followed this principle since its founding, when it began hunting down Nazis – war criminals, organizers and perpetrators of the Holocaust – who evaded justice after 1945 and hid their true identities using pseudonyms.

The most famous operation took place in May 1960, when Adolf Eichmann, one of the planners and executors of the Holocaust, was kidnapped from Argentina by agents of the Israeli intelligence “Mossad” and transported to Israel, where an Israeli court sentenced the Nazi war criminal to death – A. Eichmann ended his life in a noose.

After Israeli athletes were massacred by the Palestinian terrorist organization “Black September” at the 1972 Munich Olympics, Israel began hunting down terrorists around the world.

Dozens of terrorists (and innocent people) became victims of Israeli revenge/justice, although its effectiveness remains controversial – whether it was worth it, when one leader was killed, another or others, even more brutal and clever, took his place, and the cycle of violence became one of the most prominent features of the never-ending conflict in the Middle East. It was in this way that the Palestinian terrorist organization PLO (Palestine Liberation Organization) was basically destroyed and forced to withdraw or change direction, and Hamas came into being.

Israel, on the other hand, takes the position that a good terrorist is a dead terrorist and that revenge = justice. Israel generally delivers justice even when the rest of the world disagrees. Since the rest of the world mostly disagrees with Israel’s actions, or limits itself to general statements that Israelis have the right to defend themselves, Israel rarely listens to the world.

Rare exceptions can be made when Israel’s actions are strongly opposed by its main ally, the United States, or when the actions themselves are too risky and the negative consequences outweigh the intended effects.

Whether the latter will show up, as they did now, when Iran promised a tough response – it is not clear, since the terrorist leader has been killed, that is, someone of the same level as Osama bin Laden is given to the Americans. But most importantly, Israel has shown its determination, willingness and ability to deliver on its promises.

How did you do that and what does it show?

Israel has demonstrated the ability, means, and willingness to use them

Iran’s attacks in April this year have demonstrated several important points to Israel and its allies. Although most missiles were shot down, the fact that Iran attacked Israel directly from its own territory certainly shows that a new phase is beginning, where the previous normal rules will no longer apply and further attacks are likely.

The Iranian attack also reveals the characteristics of modern missile attacks: even with a massive salvo of missiles and drones, it is difficult to launch a successful attack, although counterattack is even more difficult – requiring a large centralized coordination capability, air defense systems. All of this is costly and requires human and organizational resources, as well as the willingness not to stray from the path of uncontrolled escalation. This is a lesson for Israel and its ally Iran, and for Europeans who spend a lot of money and do nothing about the need to protect themselves..

But something more important happened in the aftermath of this massive attack that few noticed. Israel pledged a limited response to the Iranian attack, and responded in a way the Iranians did not want — just as Iran had hoped, but to the surprise of Tehran.

Although a limited attack, it served as a clear signal that Israel could respond — and that it had the will and means to do so. If Israel could knock out the air defenses that might be protecting Iran’s most important facilities with a single, small strike from a distance, one can imagine what a massive Israeli response would mean.

And although Israel has not officially confirmed the news, it is believed that the attack on Iran was carried out with the help of Israeli aviation – fighter jets F-16, F-15, and the new F-35.

More importantly, Israel used the Blue Sparrow air-to-air ballistic missile, according to the Financial Times. The missile has a range of about 2,000 kilometers, so it could theoretically be launched from Israeli airspace at Iranian targets, although missile debris was found in Iraq in April, suggesting that the Blue Sparrow may have been launched from Iraqi airspace, or at least passed through Iraqi airspace.

On the other hand, speculation about whether the Hamas leader was killed by a Blue Sparrow missile in Tehran or whether Haniyeh was killed by Mossad agents is now less important than the fact that Israel has the capabilities, means, and is willing to use them against its enemies, wherever they are.

Putin’s promise backfired

Are such examples instructive? This possibility is not insignificant, given that Israel has so far tried not to target Iran directly, even though it also supports terrorist groups, including Hamas. Direct confrontation, whether in the Middle East or elsewhere, could lead to escalation and a major war, which is one of the biggest fears of major powers, primarily the United States.

Ukraine War Perhaps best illustrating the dilemma of escalation risk and its management: As we all know, the United States and its allies initially avoided transferring weapons to Ukraine for fear of the risk of escalation with Moscow.

Later, when these limits were crossed — from anti-tank and light anti-aircraft weapons to artillery, salvo systems, ballistic and cruise missiles, and finally even partially across the border — the Ukrainians were allowed to stay on Russian territory with certain restrictions. Objections from the United States and some other countries to Ukrainian attacks on critical Russian infrastructure such as refineries were not formally withdrawn.

But Ukraine has demonstrated that it can ignore these restrictions, whether by conducting drone strikes on Russian territory or carrying out special operations beyond its (and Russia’s) borders against Kremlin regime criminals. One of the most high-profile examples is the operations of Ukrainian special forces in Sudan.

One of the latest attacks can be considered Ambush in Mali, 100 Russian mercenaries killed During the shelling of the convoy. On the evening of July 28, news broke that a column of Russian mercenaries had been destroyed in northern Mali, where heavy fighting had broken out a week earlier, near the Algerian border.

Russian propagandists’ Channel Z predicted the imminent defeat of the Tuareg, who have controlled northern Mali for the past 12 years. However, in a Tuareg ambush, Russian mercenaries suffered one of their most embarrassing defeats.

The more interesting images emerged after these massacres, with Tuaregs posing with several men who were clearly not locals, hiding their faces against a background of the Ukrainian flag. They are believed to be Ukrainian special forces agents who helped organize the attacks against Wagner mercenaries, notorious in Ukraine for their brutality and looking for a new cause after the failure of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion.

Ukraine’s actions seem to have no geographical limits and its ambitions are boundless. The latest attack was against a Russian military base in Syria. On July 25, a complex strike was launched against Russian bases in Syria – Russian military equipment came under attack at an airport east of Aleppo.

The Kyiv Post also published a video showing that a Russian mobile radio-electronic warfare complex was destroyed first, and then the drones attacked Russian military facilities at the airport itself.

It is therefore ironic that Putin’s promise to hunt down terrorists anywhere and at any time, including in the toilet, now appears to be backfiring on the Kremlin regime and its allies, who are considered terrorists.