A critical week in the Middle East: from progress in the Gaza ceasefire to the possibility of escalation in the region

After several days of attacks Gazain the south Lebanon and in the north Israel and the intersection of threats Jerusalem yes TehernThe Middle East faces a week full of decisive questions. Will the continuation of the war in the Gaza Strip or progress in the negotiations at the Doha or Cairo conference next Thursday pave the way for a ceasefire? Will the announced retaliation lead to an Israeli attack, increasing the likelihood of a direct and regional confrontation? The coup promised by Hezbollah would break the rules of conflict with its enemies, in its first attack in support of Hamas October 8, giving way to a phase of large-scale confrontation? The reactions of the main players will mark a different scenario in the short to medium term.

Hamas

He made his first response on Sunday evening, announcing that he was not interested in a truce through “new negotiations on a new proposal”. In this way, they responded negatively to the joint statement issued by the United States, Egypt and Qatar to celebrate a new round of negotiations on August 15 next year. Hamas asked the mediators to “develop a plan to implement the plan they proposed to the movement and approved on July 2, 2024, in accordance with Biden’s vision and the Security Council resolutions, and to force the occupation forces to do so.”

The Islamist group, which has 115 abductees at the negotiating table and on the front lines of the battle, is the weakest. Hamas is far weaker than when it attacked Israel on October 7 and launched a massive offensive. With thousands of dead soldiers, fewer rounds and military leaders beheaded, Hamas has also lost two of its most important leaders abroad. Saleh el Arouri, who has been linked to the militant group for decades and was a key figure in planning West Bank attacks and alliances with Hezbollah and Iran, was killed in an Israeli strike in Beirut. Ismail Haniyeh (Doha Political Bureau chief) was hit by a small explosive device in his bedroom in Tehran, allegedly by mashed.

Faced with Israel’s military superiority in the devastated Gaza Strip, Hamas operates and hides in tunnels and among civilians (mosques, hospitals, refugee centers, etc.), and seeing how Israel cannot find an alternative to the Islamist group, repeating ground attacks like now for the third time Jane EuniceIn some of the tunnels in this area will be the main target of Hamas leaders and military forces. Despite the increasingly unfavorable situation, Yeh Hai Sinwar It left intact its basic demand for a final ceasefire within the framework of the agreement, which would force it to give up its main trump card, even survival (kidnapping), in exchange for the withdrawal of its troops from Gaza and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.

Under external pressure (Qatar, Egypt and even Hezbollah) and internal pressure (exhausted Gaza people desperate for a ceasefire to end the attacks, evacuation, etc.), Sinwar may accept a deal today that would yield on some of the demands of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Israel

With Israel on high alert in the face of the retaliatory actions announced 12 days ago by Hezbollah (whose military chief Fuad Shouk was killed in an airstrike in Beirut) and Iran (Hania), the Gaza negotiations face a decisive week. Biden Increased pressure Netanyahu The death of several Hamas leaders and leaders and the takeover Rafa The strategic Philadelphia corridor between the Gaza Strip and Egypt might be more willing to agree.

But many analysts and MPs believe that Netanyahu has not called for a ceasefire not only because of Sinvar’s inflexible stance, but also because of fear of losing power. The leader, who has improved in the polls in recent weeks, has a majority in a government that ratifies the deal, but could lose the government if his two ultra-nationalist partners, Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrish, withdraw their support for the deal and sign what they call a “surrender agreement.”

In addition to demands from the anguished families of the kidnapped, who have been held captive for 310 days, the security establishment leadership is pressuring Netanyahu to accept the deal. First, they remind him, because it is a moral duty in the face of the citizens kidnapped in the colossal defeat of 7-O. Army and intelligence chiefs say a round of talks pushed this week by the United States, Qatar and Egypt may be the last chance for the hostages. Otherwise, they warn, some will not survive. And second, because they believe it is necessary on an operational level. His army needs a pause in Gaza after thousands of soldiers were wounded and killed in ten months, which would also allow him to commit most of his forces to the most challenging fronts in the north.

party

Your leader Hassan Nasral Reiterating that he would respond “in a real and not superficial way” to the death of his military adviser 12 days ago during an Israeli attack on his territory in Beirut, the response would go beyond attacks in northern Israel, where clashes have become routine since October and in which Israel has lost more than 400 soldiers.

On the other hand, many Lebanese called on him to exercise restraint. The attacks against Israel, which caused civilian casualties, such as majdal shams (12 children dead) leading to the action against Shukr will lead to a strong response from the pro-Iranian militias and Lebanon.

If war breaks out, and with more than 150,000 missiles in the hands of Hezbollah, Israel will suffer much greater losses than in 2006, but much less than its neighbors. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant distributed an Arabic letter to the Lebanese population, warning that “Shia Iran and those who bend (its ideology), headed by Hezbollah, are holding Lebanon and its people hostage for the sake of narrow interests” . “Sectarian”. Thus, it seeks to increase internal pressure on Nasral to refrain from launching a major attack, which would cause greater damage to Israel than an attack from Iran, nearly 2,000 kilometers away.

Ian

In mid-April, Iran broke the psychological barrier with its first direct attack on Israel, which in theory would have made it easier for Iran to repeat the more than 300 missiles and drones it launched that night. In practice, it is believed that this will not be done. If it was a reaction to the death of seven Revolutionary Guard officers in Damascus, now it is the death of the Hamas leader in his home. “Revenge for the blood of the Haniyya martyrs is both a religious and a state obligation. The Zionist entity must be prepared for severe punishment,” declared parliament spokesman Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf.

The United States is sending more troops to the region, first and foremost, to deter and neutralize an eventual attack by Iran and its militias on Israeli territory and North American bases. Whether due to Israel’s warning that it will respond massively to Iran’s response (unlike four months ago) or to the United States’ warnings about the damage a war would do to Iran and its economy, President Trump Masoud Pezeshkian He prefers indirect rather than direct action against the Israeli center, as the Revolutionary Guards want. Dan Yamene As always, the Islamic Republic has the final say.