A calculation that will definitely give you a headache: How can Croatia “sneak” further?

Tonight, the Croatian national team lost a goal in the last few seconds of injury time and ended up drawing 1:1 with Italy.

With this goal, Croatia finished the game as the third in the group with two points and a goal difference advantage of 3:6. Four of the six national teams that finished third in the group will advance to the round of 16, and the name of the passenger will only be known after the last group (Group F) is over.

Croatia’s current position is not good. It is certain that they are ahead of Hungary, which has already got three points. It is certain that the third place in Group D and Group E will also be ahead of Croatia, because France and the Netherlands in Group D have 4 points each, and Austria has 3 points. Whoever finishes third will be ahead of Croatia. The same is true for Group E, where Romania, Belgium, Ukraine and Slovakia have 3 points each.

Croatia will go through Group C and Group F looking for chances, no matter how small. England has 4 points, Slovenia and Denmark have 2 points each, and Serbia has 1 point. Croatia needs to equal the results of this group to qualify. There are many different scenarios, and of course, goal difference plays a major role in almost every one of them. If Denmark and Serbia draw, Croatia is automatically eliminated, because Serbia will have 2 points and a goal difference of -1, which is better than Croatia, while Denmark has 3 points. In addition, if Serbia wins by less than three goals, Croatia will be eliminated, because in this case, Denmark will have a better goal difference than Croatia, although both sides will get two points. If Denmark wins Serbia, this result alone will not be enough for Croatia. She also needs England to surpass Slovenia. Slovenia’s goal difference is 2:2, two points, while Croatia’s goal difference is 3:6, so they need England to win, which will guarantee them a better goal difference than Slovenia.

If, in an incredible series of circumstances, Croatia finishes in this group, it can only be better than a third-placed national team. The other must be found in Group F, where Portugal plays Georgia and Turkey plays the Czech Republic. Portugal has 6 points, Turkey has 3 points, and the Czech Republic and Georgia have 1 point each. Due to the difference in goal difference, only a victory over Portugal and Turkey would suit Croatia, otherwise Croatia would be eliminated.