A blunt assessment of the railway project: “A further 19 billion euros is needed at most”

The joint report of the Baltic States’ financial audit bodies is unsparing about the Rail Baltica project, which is progressing smoothly. Published by It is reported that if the Baltic Railway is to be built according to the original plan, it will cost another 19 billion euros to complete.

The report said that if track projects were pruned aggressively, Rail Baltica could be completed within the current timetable of 2030. But even then, there would be a 10.1 billion euro shortfall in its financing.

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The report states that the governments of the Baltic states are accepting the fact that only the main line of Rail Baltica must be completed, while local stations are being demolished. Likewise, one of the two adjacent tracks must be cleared for at least part of the distance.

If the track is built as a scaled-down version of the 10.1 billion euro project, Estonia will have to find another 1.8 billion euros, Latvia 440 million euros and Lithuania 3.9 billion euros.

The price has quadrupled

Estonian media described the state audit report as “a complete mess in the financing of Rail Baltica”. Jarnar Holm He did not mince words when he commented on the report in Estonian. In Maaleht magazine.

“People deliberately raised false hopes about Rail Baltica’s completion timeline, beautiful pictures of the railway terminal resembling a space station and videos of trains whizzing by at hundreds of kilometers per hour were shared. We have seen all that, but we have yet to see the railway itself,” Holm said.

The report said that the price of the Baltic Railway has quadrupled and the Baltic States cannot rely solely on EU financing. The current EU budget period ends in 2027, which is why funding for 2027 and 2028 may be interrupted.

“According to the project plan, 2027 and 2028 should be the intensive construction phase of the track, but so far no one knows where the money will come from,” the report concluded.

The current state-owned economy in the Baltic states, especially Estonia, is in such a state that no additional funding is expected from that direction. Estonia is already struggling with excessive budget deficits and needs significant additional funds for defense spending, so it will not take on more debt funding.

There are also problems with using funds already received from the EU’s Cyber ​​European Financing Facility (CEF) because they must be used within a certain time frame. If the money is not used on time, it is lost.

Where does the train come from?

That’s not all, because in the report of the National Financial Audit Agency, attention was also paid to trains. The report stated that if the first phase of the works is actually completed, there is a risk that the track will be without trains by 2031.

Acquiring the trains could take up to eight years, but so far the Baltic states have not even decided whether to buy or lease them. Railway operators may also be forced to procure their own trains.

The costs of trains and their operation are not taken into account at all in Rail Baltica’s budget, and it must also be noted that the EU does not provide any funds for the maintenance and operation of the tracks.

The report also criticised Rail Baltica for its poor management and lack of risk management. The EU has also taken notice. After initial controversy, Rail Baltica will proceed separately in each Baltic state with its own budget, even though the umbrella company coordinating the project will not be involved. RB Railway Company Located in Riga.

Stay on budget

Estonian Railways, which is developing Rail Baltic in Estonia, posted a counter-comment on its website commenting on the state audit report.

According to Rail Baltic, the project at least still falls within the Estonian budget and will be completed as planned by 2030. Rail Baltic said the state auditor used outdated information in its report and did not focus on the positive “socio-economic impacts” of the railway project, such as increased safety and employment.