Ukraine advances towards Kursk: Russian troops under pressure

The war has spread to Russian territory. Fighting continued in Russia’s Kursk Oblast on Tuesday morning after Ukrainian soldiers crossed into the Sumy region in northeastern Ukraine, and 24 hours later, fighting continued there. This also includes aerial bombardment.

Missile sirens have been sounded several times in the Kursk region since the attack. On Tuesday evening, Governor Alexey Smirnov spoke of several civilian casualties on the Russian side. Thousands of residents are said to have left the region.

Despite statements to the contrary from Moscow’s Defense Ministry, Russian forces have apparently not yet succeeded in pushing Ukrainian troops back across the border.

Russian military blogs report that some Russian villages near the border, such as Sverdlikovo and Gogorevka, located along the road to the small town of Sudja, remain under Ukrainian control. As usual, the Ukrainian military leadership does not comment on the current fighting.

One of the largest attacks on Russian territory

The Russian Defense Ministry said late on Tuesday that more than 300 soldiers and dozens of armored vehicles were allegedly involved in the attack. This would therefore be one of the largest attacks on Russian territory since the beginning of the war. According to the ministry, the Ukrainian attackers suffered heavy losses. As with most of the information about the initiative, this cannot be independently verified.

During the war, there have been several advances to the Russian border regions such as Kursk and Belgorod. In most cases, the main participants were Russian units fighting on the side of Kiev, such as the Russian Volunteer Army. The online portal “New Voice of Ukraine” cited the Ukrainian military intelligence service, which coordinates the actions of the Volunteer Association, as saying that this attack was not the case.

Russia must transfer associations

There are different interpretations of the purpose of this isolated advance into Russian territory. The main goal of the Ukrainian armed forces at the moment is undoubtedly to stop the continuous advance of Russian troops in Donbass. In the Sumy region, about 200 kilometers northwest of the front line, which is the starting point of the advance to the Kursk region, there are no Russian troops on Ukrainian territory. However, the region is frequently bombed by Russia.

Therefore, the Ukrainian offensive against relatively weakly protected border regions could be aimed at relocating Russian forces that would then no longer be available for an offensive against Ukraine. Russian military blogs reported that a Chechen unit had been moved to the border region.

However, this progress also constrains Ukrainian forces. Replacing these is fundamentally more difficult for Ukraine than for Russia due to resource imbalances.

Important points about natural gas transportation

As a result, some Russian commentators are talking about a PR strategy to distract attention from the setbacks in Donbass. Russian and Ukrainian sources reported late Tuesday that Russian soldiers had advanced into the city of Toretsk. Attacks on cities north of Donetsk intensify.

After the setbacks of the past few weeks, a somewhat spectacular operation would certainly come in handy for Kiev. Such a development would also bring the war back into the attackers’ territory, which would also have a psychological impact on the Russian population, at least near the border.

The use of relatively large amounts of materiel and personnel in the advance in the Kursk region is unjustified without tactical ulterior motives. In this context, the Russian Telegram channel “Dwa Majora” also pointed out the importance of the region for the transit of Russian gas. The last entry point for the transportation of Russian gas to the west through Ukraine is located near Sudja. Since the outbreak of the fighting, the transportation volume has dropped to 7% of normal levels.