One damn thing after another

Henry Ford (1863-1947) was an American industrialist, best known as the founder of Ford Motor Company. Once, when asked what he thought of history and politics, he said, quite ungraciously, “History is one damn thing after another, and politics is one damn thinker after another or one damn idea after another.” I think of his response because I am frustrated that domestic and global politics cannot be the answer to improving the overall human condition. In a world where everyone is monitored by everyone, the democratic world today is committing almost the same mistakes and crimes that it accuses the undemocratic world of committing. Israel attacked Tehran and killed Ismail Haniyeh. In the eyes of the world, this act of war did not violate international law or the UN Charter, which is a legal instrument that all UN member states must abide by. Is Israel not a member of the United Nations? Or can it defend its insecurity for free by attacking and assassinating the people of a sovereign state, and during the inauguration of a new president of an independent sovereign state?

Israel can rely on the logic of reality, claiming that a country can act in accordance with its own strategic interests. But what about the strategic interests of the United States? By continuing to support Israel, the United States will eventually do things that are not in line with its national interests, which contradicts realism. The United States continues to damage its reputation in the Middle East and the Muslim world. Israel cannot get out of the troubles it has created, and it faces not two but three fronts – the Gaza war, the war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the war with Iran. The chaos currently created by Israel may return the world to the state of the Middle Ages. So, what will the future situation be like? To know, we first need to find answers to several questions. How will the Ukrainian war end? If President Donald Trump returns to power after the US election in November, which wars can he stop? As the current US government tries to influence American voters to win the election, will the world witness more surprises in the four months from August to November?

The first question is about the war in Ukraine. President Putin’s proposal to start negotiations to end the war in Ukraine has been rejected by the United States and its NATO allies. So, if the idea is to strengthen Ukrainian ground forces and restore the balance of power on the battlefield, will it work? Professor John Milschmer believes that President Zelensky has done a poor job in safeguarding the best interests of the people. The professor believes that Ukraine should accept Russia’s conditions for starting negotiations. Russia Putin demands a complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. Moscow also promised to ensure the “unhindered and safe withdrawal” of Ukrainian troops if Kiev agrees to such concessions. Kiev is in trouble. President Zelensky is not incompetent, but he is exhausted by the conflicting pressures he is subjected to from the United States and NATO and the impossibility of the tasks he is asked to complete. Just a few days ago, Ukraine received the first batch of six F-16 fighters. Denmark has pledged to donate a total of 19 aircraft, while the Netherlands has pledged to deliver 24 aircraft. Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway have pledged to provide Ukraine with more than 60 F-16s in the coming months. The G7 also agreed in principle to a $50 billion loan to Kiev, backed by profits from $322 billion of Russian central bank assets frozen by the West. Will all this financial and military assistance help Ukraine defeat Russia? The simple answer is no. From Hannibal against the Romans to Napoleon and Hitler, there is always a historical lesson in military warfare – fighting far from home and with insecure supply lines is a path to destruction. If Ukraine uses the British-supplied Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles, which have a range of 250 kilometers and can be carried by F-16s to strike targets deep inside Russia, Russia may move in with long-range missiles to try to destroy those F-16s on the ground. The likelihood of war in Ukraine will only worsen; the only way to end it is through diplomacy and negotiation. This leads to the second question. If Trump comes to power again, what wars could he stop?

In August 2019, President Trump declared himself the “most pro-Israel American president in history.” In fact, he asked Americans not to vote for the Democrats because if they did, they would be “very, very disloyal to Israel and the Jewish people.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also called Trump “Israel’s best friend in the White House.” These comments suggest that Trump has little drive and motivation to end the Gaza war, but considering that Trump’s first term was the first time since Jimmy Carter (1977-1981) that the United States did not get involved in a new war or expand an existing conflict, Trump would like to keep it that way and be known in history as the most accomplished anti-war American president. If this scenario is likely to happen, then answering the third question becomes easier. Will the world witness more surprises in the four months from August to November as the current US administration tries to influence American voters to win the election?

So far, the United States has nothing to show the American public on the issue of a ceasefire in Gaza. The story of Israel trying to eliminate Hamas in Gaza makes sense. How and what Israel does against Hezbollah in Lebanon, will this story be repeated? If Israel gets political, diplomatic and military support from the United States to do this, will this have a positive impact on the Democratic Party’s support in the American public in the November elections? Due to the constant shelling of northern Israel by Hezbollah, about 60,000 Israeli citizens have been forced to displace to central Israel. Israelis have little idea of ​​other ways to solve this problem except military means. Since the whole world has turned a blind eye to Israel’s immoral way of war and its inhumanity and cruelty, there is no doubt that it will not try to solve the problem of Hezbollah during the Little Widows in August-November 2024. How right Henry Ford was – one damn thing after another, one damn thinker and idea after another. This world is a cruel place for us.