“Even if weakened, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses a threat to our democracies”

French-Iranian Emmanuel Razavi is a senior journalist and expert on the Middle East. He covers Iran in particular. Paris MatchHe recently published The Hidden Faces of the Mullahs: The Black Book of the Islamic Republic of Iran (Cerf, 2024).

Figarovos. – Is the fact that Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran a symbol?

Emmanuel Razavi. – Understand its symbolic meaning Israel’s actions against Haniyehwe must remember that the Islamic Republic of Iran is one of the sponsors of Hamas. The Quds Force, an elite unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the armed wing of the Iranian regime, responsible for external operations, trained hundreds of Palestinian jihadists from Hamas and Islamic Jihad long before October 7. She also provided them with weapons. Obviously, Israel’s killing of a terrorist leader in the territory of its supporters is a double blow. This shows that Israeli secret services are fully aware of what is happening in the heart of the Islamic Republic and that they are capable of carrying out targeted strikes within the regime’s infrastructure. The fact that the location in Iran where Ismail Haniyeh was killed actually belongs to the Revolutionary Guards suggests that Mossad received information from Iranian sources.

For Israel, is this also a way to send a message to Iran?

This is a letter to Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iranwhich included warning him and telling him that he could be next on the list. Let us point out that Khamenei maintains a special bond with Ismail Haniyeh. Like the Hamas leader, Khamenei, although a Shiite, is inspired by the theories of the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood organization. He is also the translator of the books of Sayyid Qutb, one of the Islamic Brotherhood’s ideologues. In 1989, Khamenei succeeded Ayatollah Khomeini and even made the teaching of Qutb’s texts mandatory in the training schools of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards. Thus, for the jihadists of Hamas, the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamic Republic of Iran is considered a refuge. From now on, the mullahs, like the terrorist bigwigs they shelter, know that they no longer have any place to hide.

Is there a risk of escalation in the short term? Is it more fragile from the inside than it appears? How will the mullahs’ regime respond?

The risk of escalation is real, especially with Ali Khamenei promising “Severe punishment» flew to Israel. He believes that in fact Iran’s defense and security sectors humiliatedIran must retaliate. However, a source close to the Iranian regime recently explained to me that the Islamic Republic “On the brink of chaos“, and it does not have the capacity to engage in direct war with Israel. According to her, in the event of a conflict, its military capabilities would not last more than six to eight weeks. The Islamic Republic is facing a number of crises that are weakening its power. The first is a very high level of popular protests, as well as an unprecedented economic crisis, with inflation exceeding 40% and almost half of the population living below the poverty line.

Finally, within the regime, there are also disagreements and scores between different factions. Some people no longer believe in it and leak sensitive information, which I observed during my investigation. Paris Matchand write my book. This is probably why the Mossad is taking advantage of the signs of the Iranian security system itself. In fact, the Islamic Republic has only been held together through repression, hostage-taking and terror. So the mullahs will react to Haniyeh’s death, that’s for sure. But in their own way. According to what my Iranian sources explained to me, They can initiate actions against Israeli interests Or Jewish organizations abroad. They could act through their own proxies and the Quds Force, which has agents capable of organizing attacks in the Middle East and Europe. They could also repeat the same type of attacks they launched against Israel in April.

The potential for a Middle Eastern conflagration to break out is greater than ever, even if none of the protagonists want it to.

Emmanuel Razavi

Is war inevitable in the long run, especially with Donald Trump returning to the White House? Isn’t it a risk that the Iranian people will unite behind the regime?

The possibility of a major fire in the Middle East is greater than ever, even if none of the protagonists wants it to. Because the Islamic Republic of Iran represents a constant danger, especially for Israel. It maintains close ties with all the Shia and Sunni Islamic terrorist groups that threaten the Jewish state. It also harbors Al-Qaeda fighters, which I talk about in the book. Trump judges that Joe Biden has been too weak in front of the mullahs and wants to end his compromise with Iran. As for the Iranians uniting behind the regime in case of conflict, I don’t believe it. Because there is a major sociological and generational rupture between the Iranian people and the mullahs. It is known that the average age in Iran is 32 years old. Young people want peace, freedom, democracy and peaceful relations with Israel. In addition, there are opposition voices at home and abroad. The main leader, Prince Reza Pahlavi, has a long-term vision for Iran and the Middle East and is uniting more and more Iranians. Some people have also emerged among left-wing Republicans and liberals who can work with him. These figures are building an alternative.

In addition to the confrontation between Israel and Iran, is there also a confrontation between Islamism and the West? Does the regime, weakened from within, count on the export of Islamism, especially to France?

In 1979, Khomeini advocated a “global jihad”. Today, some clerics around Ali Khamenei believe The time has come to confront the West. They believe that Western democracies are going through a major crisis at the social, economic and “moral” level. Therefore, they try to exploit their weaknesses to destabilize them. In France, as in Spain or Britain, the Iranian regime uses for this purpose agents of influence and spies working for the Quds Force, often linked to a network of Iranian embassies and cultural foundations. Since October 7, their mission has been to spread linguistic elements favorable to Hamas by infiltrating our universities and extreme left circles. One of these agents, Bashir Biazar, lived in Dijon and was arrested and expelled a few weeks ago. In my book I explain how Iranian networks of influence operate in Europe. Believe me, the Islamic Republic of Iran, even if weakened, is a threat to our democracies.