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The airstrike killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and Iran vowed to retaliate. Hezbollah Israel’s assassination of Gaza Strip commanders in a 12-hour period dashed hopes for an imminent ceasefire in Gaza and heightened fears of a “dangerous escalation” in the region.
Israel has not directly claimed responsibility for the attack on Haniyeh, but it is clear to Israel’s enemies, its own politicians and analysts who were responsible.
Senior Hamas official Khalil Haya told a news conference in Tehran, citing witnesses, that Haniyeh Killed by missile The attack took place “directly” at the state guesthouse where he was staying.
Haniyeh was in Iran to attend the inauguration of new President Massoud Pezeshkian, who said after the shooting that Iran would defend its territorial integrity and honor.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei blamed Israel and said Iran had a “duty” to retaliate because Haniyeh was attacked while he was a guest in Iran. According to the New York Times Iran’s Foreign Ministry cited three Iranian officials with knowledge of the order as saying Khamenei had ordered Iran to strike directly at Israel. It was not possible to verify the report.
The timing and location of both attacks, both against high-profile commanders in densely populated capital cities, is particularly humiliating for Iran and Hezbollah, raising the risk of both sides sliding into an all-out regional war as Tehran seeks to rebuild its military deterrence.
Although Hamas It has also vowed to retaliate, but after nearly 10 months of fighting in Gaza, it no longer has the capacity to cause damage outside the Strip.
Israel, Iran and Lebanon Most agree that an all-out conflict would be devastating for all parties, no matter who prevails. But in regional proxy wars, and in high-stakes efforts to project power, the risk of miscalculation and deadly errors is heightened.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the attack marked a “dangerous escalation,” and his spokesman Stephane Dujarric urged all parties to work to de-escalate the situation in a statement. “Restraint alone will not be enough at this extremely sensitive moment.”
Haniyeh played a key role in negotiating a ceasefire and hostage release agreement with Hamas. Gazaleading many to question whether the Israeli government really wants to stop the conflict there.
Egypt and Qatar, which play a key role in the negotiations, warned that Haniyeh’s death would set back the talks.
Writing on the X website, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani added: “How can mediation succeed if one side assassinates the other’s negotiator?”, joining the region’s chorus of condemnation.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered a defiant speech Wednesday night celebrating Israel’s attack on Lebanon — which Israel has officially claimed — and vowed to continue fighting in Gaza.
“For months, every week, people at home and abroad have told me to end the war. I did not give in to those voices then, and I will not give in today,” he said.
“If we had succumbed to pressure to end the war, we would not have eliminated the leadership of Hamas, we would not have occupied the Philadelphia corridor (along the Egyptian border) which is Hamas’s oxygen source, and we would not have created the conditions to both repatriate all the abductees and achieve the goals of the war.”
For months, the U.S. government has been leading international diplomatic efforts to prevent the Gaza war from spreading into a broader regional conflict, and U.S. diplomats have recently pushed for a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday that Washington had no knowledge of or involvement in Haniyeh’s assassination and that the Gaza ceasefire remained vital.
From Hezbollah on Israel’s northern border to the Houthis in Yemen, the path to de-escalating regional conflicts with Iran and its allies runs through Gaza.
All of the groups said they took up arms in solidarity with the Palestinians after Israel launched war in Gaza on Oct. 7 in response to a cross-border attack by Hamas. They are unlikely to lay down their weapons without a ceasefire in Gaza.
“We do not believe escalation is inevitable … and there is no indication that escalation is imminent,” said John Kirby, a White House national security spokesman.
At an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, China, Russia, Algeria and other countries condemned the assassination of Haniyeh, and Iran’s ambassador to the UN called it an act of terrorism. China’s ambassador to the UN, Fu Cong, said the failure to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza was the cause of the escalating tensions.
Palestinian representative Feida Abdelhadi Nasser condemned the killing of Haniyeh, saying “violence and terror are Israel’s main and only currency.” She added: “Israel has no red lines. There are no laws it cannot break, no norms it cannot trample. There is no act too depraved or too barbaric for it to commit.”
Haniyeh’s funeral will be held on Thursday in Iran, which has declared three days of mourning. His body will then be flown to Doha, the capital of Qatar, for burial.
While his death was shocking, Hamas officials and analysts said it would not have much immediate impact on the ground in Gaza.
Senior Hamas leaders have been assassinated several times, including Haniyeh’s mentor Ahmed Yassin in 2004. Haniyeh has not directed operations in the region since he went into exile in 2019.
Hamas fighters in Gaza are led by Yahya Sinwar, who is considered the mastermind behind the October 7 attack that killed about 1,200 people and took 250 hostages.
Haniyeh urged Palestinians to “stand firm” both when Israel killed Yassin and when airstrikes in Gaza in April killed Haniyeh’s three sons and four grandsons.
In an interview with Al Jazeera at the time, he insisted that his personal loss would not prompt Hamas to change its position in the negotiations. His death is likely to provoke similar reactions from other Hamas leaders.
Israeli officials declined to comment on Haniyeh’s assassination, but Israel had vowed to kill all Hamas leaders after the attack on October 7. Israeli intelligence has a history of covert killings inside Iran, mainly targeting scientists working on the country’s nuclear program.
Retired General Amos Yadlin, former head of Israel’s military intelligence, said late Wednesday that the attacks were “two high-quality operations by the IDF against two top terrorists, one in Beirut and one in Tehran.”
A few hours after Haniya’s death Hezbollah’s top military commanderFuad Shukur, is Killed in airstrike on southern Beirut suburbs The attack was in retaliation for a rocket attack that killed 12 children over the weekend.
Lebanon’s foreign minister said the attack came as a shock after assurances from Israel’s allies that Lebanon would respond with a limited response “that would not provoke a war.”
“We did not expect to be attacked in Beirut. We thought these were red lines that the Israelis would respect,” Abdullah Buhabib told the Guardian. The attack also killed three women and two children and injured dozens of people.
Shukur’s funeral is also scheduled for Thursday, with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah expected to give a speech.
The news of the assassination was greatly welcomed in Israel as it partially fulfilled Israel’s commitment to hunt down the perpetrators of the “October 7 atrocities.”
Social media was flooded with triumphant memes. Cabinet Minister Amichai Chikli shared a video of Haniyeh nodding to chants of “Death to Israel” in a post on X, captioning it “Be careful what you wish for.”
It was also seen as vindication of the security forces after the defeat on Oct. 7. “It does restore a little bit of lost dignity to the Israeli intelligence community,” said retired Gen. Tamir Hayman, who, like Yadlin, served as director of the Defense Intelligence Agency.
However, he said the tactical impact would not change Israel’s overall position in the Gaza war, which has been going on for nearly 10 months. “In terms of Israel’s overall strategic posture and the complex situation we face in terms of stopping the war and achieving all our goals, this doesn’t actually change that much.”
He called on the government to use its military advantage to push for a ceasefire and the repatriation of hostages, then turn its attention to securing the northern border. “If we continue to (rely on) these very good tactical achievements, we will essentially be in the same position as we were yesterday,” he said.
Meanwhile, two U.S. airlines, United Airlines and Delta Air Lines, said they would suspend flights to Tel Aviv in light of the current situation, while Air France and budget carrier Transavia said they would suspend flights between Paris and Beirut until the weekend.
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