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In April 2024, civil engineering business managers were less optimistic about expected activity and changes in workforce size over the next three months than in January 2024. However, they were more optimistic about the development of activity in the near term.
Business managers’ perceptions of their expected activity have deteriorated significantly
In April 2024, business managers were significantly less confident about their expected activity over the next three months than in January: the corresponding balance of opinion was very active in January, but fell back in April, approaching its long-term average. Among managers distinguishing between client types, the balance of opinion in the public sector fell sharply, while the balance in the private sector remained stable.
GraphicsPublic Works Economic Outlook
Balance of opinion, expressed as % SA
| Average* | July 23 | October 23 | January 24 | April 24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past Events | -5 | -15 | -8 | -1 | 3 |
| Past activities in the public sector | -11 | -26 | -20 | -11 | -3 |
| Past activities in the private sector | -8 | -12 | -15 | -5 | 0 |
| Expected Activities | -11 | -15 | -14 | 3 | -7 |
| Expected activities of the public sector | -15 | -26 | -20 | 4 | -12 |
| Expected private sector activities | -14 | -16 | -11 | -8 | -8 |
| Views on the order book | -twenty three | -18 | -20 | -12 | -19 |
| Barriers to increasing production due to labor shortage (%) | 18 | 43 | 43 | Chapter 46 | forty five |
| Expected Workforce | -11 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 1 |
| Feeling of economic uncertainty** | twenty five | 17 | 31 | twenty one | 16 |
- Note: The balance of client opinions may differ from the overall balance because sometimes companies do not distinguish between public and private sector projects.
- * Average of the balance of views on economic uncertainty since January 1981 and since April 2021.
- ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted
- Source: INSEE and FNTP
GraphicsActivities in the field of civil engineering
| Past Events | Expected Activities | |
|---|---|---|
| Second quarter of 2024 | 3.1 | -7.1 |
| Q1 2024 | -1.0 | 2.9 |
| Fourth quarter of 2023 | -8.0 | -13.8 |
| Q3 2023 | -15.0 | -15.0 |
| Second quarter of 2023 | -4.9 | -8.1 |
| Q1 2023 | 5.0 | -12.1 |
| Fourth quarter of 2022 | -4.0 | -6.8 |
| Third quarter of 2022 | 5.0 | -18.0 |
| Second quarter of 2022 | 3.0 | -13.4 |
| Q1 2022 | -4.8 | -1.0 |
| Fourth quarter of 2021 | -2.6 | 6.0 |
| Third quarter of 2021 | 15.6 | 5.4 |
| Second quarter of 2021 | -9.8 | -8.0 |
| Q1 2021 | -8.9 | -19.8 |
| Fourth quarter of 2020 | 3.6 | -29.8 |
| Third quarter of 2020 | -89.9 | 17.7 |
| Second quarter of 2020 | South | South |
| Q1 2020 | 19.3 | -4.5 |
| Fourth quarter of 2019 | 29.2 | 10.5 |
| Third quarter of 2019 | 29.9 | 18.6 |
| Second quarter of 2019 | 37.3 | 22.8 |
| Q1 2019 | 32.8 | 25.9 |
| Fourth quarter of 2018 | 43.2 | 26.5 |
| Third quarter of 2018 | 29.6 | 27.8 |
| Second quarter of 2018 | 28.1 | 32.6 |
| First Quarter 2018 | 36.2 | 22.7 |
| Fourth quarter of 2017 | 32.5 | 31.4 |
| Third quarter of 2017 | 36.2 | 28.4 |
| Second quarter of 2017 | 27.8 | 19.5 |
| First Quarter 2017 | 11.2 | 3.4 |
| Fourth quarter of 2016 | 9.4 | -5.5 |
| Third quarter of 2016 | -5.6 | -1.0 |
| Second quarter of 2016 | -16.8 | -15.4 |
| First quarter of 2016 | -18.5 | -15.6 |
| Fourth quarter of 2015 | -37.5 | -15.0 |
| Third quarter of 2015 | -41.0 | -31.7 |
| Second quarter of 2015 | -50.2 | -43.5 |
| First quarter of 2015 | -59.9 | -42.3 |
| Fourth quarter of 2014 | -60.3 | -54.5 |
| Third quarter of 2014 | -45.6 | -48.4 |
| Second quarter of 2014 | 4.2 | -30.4 |
| First quarter of 2014 | -4.2 | -25.6 |
| Fourth quarter of 2013 | 3.3 | -15.6 |
| Third quarter of 2013 | -7.4 | -11.9 |
| Second quarter of 2013 | -18.4 | -13.5 |
| First quarter of 2013 | -11.3 | -13.3 |
| Fourth quarter of 2012 | -9.8 | -26.5 |
| Third quarter of 2012 | -22.6 | -7.6 |
| Second quarter of 2012 | -12.9 | -6.8 |
| First quarter of 2012 | 7.0 | -12.4 |
| Fourth quarter of 2011 | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| Third quarter of 2011 | 26.5 | 0.1 |
| Second quarter of 2011 | 36.8 | 2.3 |
| First quarter of 2011 | -32.5 | 0.0 |
| Fourth quarter of 2010 | -7.9 | -17.9 |
| Third quarter of 2010 | -15.9 | -23.9 |
| Second quarter of 2010 | -33.7 | -20.5 |
| First quarter of 2010 | -23.1 | -16.7 |
| Fourth quarter of 2009 | -33.3 | -16.1 |
| Third quarter of 2009 | -50.5 | -34.0 |
| Second quarter of 2009 | -48.8 | -52.0 |
| First quarter of 2009 | -55.3 | -50.6 |
| Fourth quarter of 2008 | -30.5 | -47.6 |
| Third quarter of 2008 | -10.8 | -26.0 |
| Second quarter of 2008 | 16.3 | -16.0 |
| First quarter of 2008 | 20.1 | 2.7 |
| Fourth quarter of 2007 | 22.8 | 14.6 |
| Third quarter of 2007 | 36.2 | 13.9 |
| Second quarter of 2007 | 39.7 | 21.5 |
| First quarter of 2007 | 39.0 | 16.9 |
- As data for the second quarter of 2020 have not yet been released, the response rate of this survey was significantly affected in April due to the health crisis.
chartCivil Engineering Activity Trends
- As data for the second quarter of 2020 have not yet been released, the response rate of this survey was significantly affected in April due to the health crisis.
- Source: FNTP and INSEE.
However, business managers’ assessment of business development in the past three months was again more positive than in the previous quarter: the relevant opinion rose for the third consecutive quarter and moved away from the average. For those who distinguish between types of customers, this improvement affects both the private and public sectors.
Compared to January, the number of business managers who consider the development of the company’s situation to be unpredictable has again decreased: the balance of opinions on the perceived economic uncertainty has fallen again.
Order volumes are thought to be down from January
In April 2024, the balance of opinion among business managers on order levels fell back somewhat, closer to the long-term average.
Job prospects have deteriorated but remain well above average
The balance of opinion about the change in the size of the labor force over the next three months fell sharply in April 2024. But it is clearly above the long-term average.
Difficulties caused by staff shortages are still frequently mentioned
In April 2024, 45% of companies reported difficulties due to lack of manpower. This is a decrease of one percentage point, but still well above the long-term average.
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