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Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley recently told the country’s parliament that the country is “facing a crisis of an aging and declining population.” The prime minister’s comments highlight the pressing issue that affects not only Barbados but many other countries in the Caribbean.
The populations of many Caribbean countries are aging, while the number of workers to pay the taxes and levies needed to pay for pensions and maintain the health and education sectors is declining. If this trend continues, Barbados and other Caribbean countries will struggle to maintain the payment of pensions and health care, especially for the elderly who are the main users, and education. Ms. Mottley stressed that “these services are not cheap” and are heavily dependent on tax revenues, which are threatened by population decline.
She also noted that the country’s social care services are “critical to the health and well-being of the people of Barbados”, as they are to all Caribbean countries. If these services wither or collapse, the outflow of skilled and semi-skilled personnel from the region will increase, exacerbating an already troubling situation.
As a possible solution, the Prime Minister suggested opening Barbados to immigration to expand the labour force and boost productivity. She highlighted the contribution of CARICOM nationals to sectors such as construction and agriculture, saying: “Without these people living here to help control the price of labour in agriculture and construction, inflation and the cost of living would have soared much earlier.”
Caribbean countries are at different stages of population ageing, and by 2030, most countries will have more than 20% of their population aged 60 and over.
Antigua and Barbuda recognized many years ago the interrelationship between population growth, economic growth, and the provision of social services, especially for an ageing population, which has enabled it to become the second fastest growing economy in the Caribbean, after Guyana, which has a booming oil and gas industry.
Background research for the 2023 World Development Report, Migrants, Refugees and Society, provides evidence of the positive impact of migration. The study examined 14 independent Caribbean Community countries and the Dominican Republic and found that in six of them, migrants make up more than 10% of the population. In Antigua and Barbuda, migrants make up 30% of the population, directly helping the country maintain health and education services and pension payments. Meeting these obligations is particularly challenging for Antigua and Barbuda because it has no personal income tax, but the situation would be worse without its migrant workforce.
In 2020, the countries with the highest proportion of immigrants to their population were: Antigua and Barbuda (30%), the Bahamas (16.2%), Belize (15.6%), and Barbados (12.1%).
The two countries with the smallest number of immigrants in CARICOM are Haiti and Jamaica, whose nationals account for nearly 75% of the region’s outflows.
It is worth noting that immigrants to Caribbean countries come not only from other Caribbean countries, but also from the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and parts of Europe. For example, in the Bahamas, immigration from the Caribbean is strictly controlled and the number of non-Caribbean nationals is higher. Similarly, due to its location in Central America, Belize has a much higher influx of immigrants from neighboring countries than from the Caribbean.
Due to its proximity to the Leeward and Windward Islands and its labour mobility obligations under the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), Antigua and Barbuda is a major destination country for OECS migrants. This flow relieves pressure on other OECS countries and helps Antigua and Barbuda’s economic growth by providing a greater critical mass of production and maintaining social welfare.
The importance of immigration to Australia has been highlighted recently. For decades, Australia has turned away immigrants and even paid other countries to let them in. A recent report by the Migration Council of Australia advocates for an immigration policy that is in Australia’s interest, predicting that immigration will increase the size of the Australian economy by 40% by 2050. Immigrants will contribute $1.6 trillion to the Australian economy, highlighting their importance to Australia’s future prosperity.
Additionally, the American Immigration Council reports that “almost one in seven people in the United States is an immigrant. They pay taxes, start businesses, and make significant contributions to important industries, including those that sustain health care and education services.”
CARICOM countries have been working for some time to promote elements of the single market and economy, including the free movement of labour. Currently, the mobility agreement covers 12 specific skill categories, including university graduates, artists, musicians, media workers, athletes, teachers, nurses, agricultural workers and security personnel.
While CARICOM allows a certain level of immigration to expand the labour force, much more needs to be done. For example, Guyana’s large-scale oil and gas production creates huge demand. The International Labour Organization says Guyana needs at least 160,000 additional workers, or 20% of its population. The attraction to developed countries such as the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom will also continue. All of this will create competition for the right immigrants.
However, as Prime Minister Mottley said, and as the experience of Antigua and Barbuda shows, immigration will only be accepted and welcomed by the local population if three conditions are met: immigration must be planned and orderly, corresponding to the required skills over a period of at least 10 years; the background of immigrants must be thoroughly vetted for security reasons; and the culture, traditions and values of the national society must be respected.
CARICOM leaders in government and the private sector should urgently develop plans to address this problem. Following the advice of a study by the University of the West Indies, a senior team from both sectors should develop a plan for the orderly immigration and absorption of much-needed skilled and semi-skilled personnel.
(The author is the Ambassador of Antigua and Barbuda to the United States and the Organization of American States. The views expressed are his own. For replies and previous comments, please visit: www.sirronaldsanders.com)
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