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Analysts believe that the US plan to enhance its air power in the Pacific is aimed at strengthening deterrence in the Indo-Pacific region and countering China’s attempts to dominate the region.
The U.S. Air Force plans to upgrade more than 80 fighter jets stationed at bases in Japan over the next few years as part of its $10 billion force modernization program.
The U.S. Department of Defense announced the plan last week, saying it aims to strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance and enhance deterrence in the Indo-Pacific region.
“This is a necessary upgrade that has been in the works for some time,” said James Shaw, senior director of the U.S.-Japan Next Generation Fighter Alliance Program at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation. “Combined with Japan’s own investment, it will help maintain a certain degree of air power balance between its allies and the modernization of the Chinese Air Force.”
“Without it, the credibility of the U.S. deterrence capability would be greatly diminished, which could cause Beijing to doubt the U.S. sincerity in maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and prompt China to engage in more aggressive behavior,” Shoff said.
Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said 37 Chinese aircraft were spotted near Taiwan on Wednesday heading to the Western Pacific for exercises with the Shandong aircraft carrier.
Chinese warplanes and warships frequently conduct dangerous maneuvers near the self-governing island of Taiwan, which Beijing claims as part of its territory.
John Aquilino, former head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee in March that China could soon have the largest air force in the world.
China is currently the world’s third largest air force, after the United States and Russia.
According to the Pentagon’s 2023 China Military Power Report, China’s rapid military modernization process has enabled it to have more than 3,150 aircraft, of which about 2,400 are combat aircraft, including fighters, strategic and tactical bombers, and attack aircraft.
“The U.S.-Japan relationship should not target or harm the interests of other countries, nor undermine regional peace and stability,” Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, told VOA on Monday.
Upgrades designed to help defend Japan
James Pristupu, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said that in addition to protecting Taiwan, the upgrades, including advanced F-35 fighter jets, will help the U.S. Forces Japan (USFJ) deter North Korea and defend Japan’s southwestern islands.
Japan has a territorial dispute with China over what it calls the Senkaku Islands and what China calls the Diaoyu Islands.
Japan and Russia also have a dispute over islands near Hokkaido, which Japan calls the Northern Territories and Russia calls the Kuril Islands.
The U.S. aircraft upgrade plan is to modify several F-35B fighter jets stationed at Iwakuni Marine Corps Air Station in Yamaguchi Prefecture, south of Hiroshima.
The 36 F-16 aircraft at Misawa Air Base in Aomori Prefecture in northern Japan will be replaced by 48 F-35A fighter jets.
Aircraft will rotate
At Kadena Air Base on the southern Japanese island of Okinawa, 48 F-15 C/D fighters will be replaced by 36 new F-15EX fighters. The Pentagon said that during the upgrade, fourth-generation and fifth-generation tactical aircraft will be rotated.
“This upgrade will improve the quality and quantity of weapons and equipment of U.S. forces stationed in Japan, which will also enhance the combat readiness of the U.S.-Japan alliance against China, North Korea and Russia,” said Ryo Yamaguchi, a professor at the University of Tokyo and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Indo-Pacific Security Initiative.
“These weapons will not only bring benefits to air operations, but also protect the naval and amphibious capabilities of the United States and Japan. These weapon platforms will not only bring combat technology advantages, but also more advanced electronic warfare capabilities to break through the weaknesses of China, North Korea and Russia.”
China frequently conducts joint air exercises with Russia in waters near South Korea and Japan. In December, Chinese and Russian warplanes intruded into South Korea’s air defense identification zone, forcing South Korea to scramble fighter jets in response.
David Maxwell, vice president of the Center for Asia-Pacific Strategic Studies, said, “Russia has been conducting some limited joint operations with China recently, so if Russia is operating in the Indo-Pacific region, it certainly indicates that these systems will contribute to the interests of defending U.S. allies.”
Maxwell said U.S. military bases in Japan provide the United States “with a great deal of operational flexibility to respond to a wide range of contingencies, whether it’s on the Korean Peninsula, whether it’s in the South China Sea, or really anywhere in Asia.”
Okinawa is about 740 kilometers (459.8 miles) from Taiwan and about 990 kilometers (615.1 miles) from the southern port city of Busan in South Korea. The Kadena base is called the “cornerstone of the Pacific” by the United States and is the largest base of the United States in the Indo-Pacific region.
Zach Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who served as special assistant to the undersecretary of defense for policy during the George W. Bush administration, said rotating aircraft at Kadena during the transition period of the upgrade would help the U.S. disperse its aircraft if attacked.
“The threat to Kadena Air Base is greater than it has been in decades,” he said, because China has a variety of weapons, including ballistic and cruise missiles. “There are a few options for dealing with that threat. One is for the United States to disperse its forces so that if it is attacked, there is less concentration of U.S. forces.”
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