Can a Renaissance list rely on the resilience of voters who love Europe more than others?

Just over six weeks European elections on June 9led by the Presidential Majority List Valerie Hale Seems to be well ahead of the national rally list led by Jordan Bardella. In the European rolling Ifop survey conducted between April 18 and 22With 17% of voting intentions, the Presidential Majority list lags behind the National Assembly list (31.5%) by more than 14 percentage points. Compared to the last European elections in June 2019The majority list was almost equal to the National Rally list: 22.4% of the votes against 23.3%, i.e. a difference of about 200,000 votes. The deterioration of the electoral capital of the Macronist majority is caused by several factors.

The median vote is always complicated for the majority party

First, it is difficult to represent the majority in European mid-term elections. In fact, these elections risk turning into “intermediate elections” with their demobilization logic…