Ukraine marks independence from the Soviet Union by attacking southern Russia and challenging ‘old’ Putin

Ukraine This Saturday marks the end of a two-and-a-half-year war that transformed Europe’s security system and led to I will accept Kiev also celebrated its 33rd anniversary of independence on this day. Soviet Union Cheers to his alliance with the West and taking up the challenge of the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyto my Russian colleagues, Vladimir Putinhe called him “the old man”The world’s number one terrorist organization“.

It was Russia’s February 24, 2022 invasion that triggered the West’s twinning with Ukraine, and there is not much interest in Ukraine. European Union Since independence in 1991, it remained largely untouched until 2014, when it witnessed Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula with little fuss.

To mark the anniversary of Ukraine’s independence from the Soviet Union, during a turbulent period for Russia and other Soviet republics, Zelensky travels to Ukraine’s Sumy regionbordering Kursk “Oblast”. This Russian region was the scene of the Russian offensive Kiev Army It started on August 6 and there is no sign of it calming down yet.

“What the enemy brought to our country has now returned home. Whoever wants to turn our territory into a buffer zone should now think about preventing their country from becoming a buffer zone federation,” he said. Zelensky It is located in the Ukrainian town of Mogoresiya, about five kilometers from the Russian border.

Sick “Old Man” on Red Square

His victory speech was peppered with references to Putin. “The sick old man on Red Square who keeps threatening everyone with the red button won’t dictate his red lines to us. Only Ukraine and Ukrainians can decide how to livewhat path to take, what to choose, because this is what independence means,” Zelensky said.

Ukraine’s leaders are trying to capitalize on the momentum of their army’s bold offensive to solicit more Western military aid. Not so much to push deeper into Russian territory and score more tactical victories, but to prevent their forces from being swept up or trapped in a pocket in the event of a Moscow counteroffensive. While that seems unlikely, Kiev is trying to permanently occupy this nearly 1,200 square kilometers of land The capture of military bases in Russia’s Kursk region in recent weeks has demonstrated the benefits of this tactic of attacking the most undefended enemy territory.

At the very least, it allowed Ukrainian and international opinion to forget that fighting was still going on in the east in Donetsk, where Russia was taking the initiative, with village after village falling before the advance of its troops. The pace of this progress is slow but inexorable.a discovery that could prompt Ukraine to venture into Russia.

Russian Army Actions Across the Front

The fall of Pokrovsk could be imminent, which would provide the Russians with many advantages, allowing them to study the situation in the region more deeply. Donetsk The Ukrainians still control it. The Russians are also making progress in other important towns such as Chasiv Yar and Toretsk. Therefore, one of the goals of the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk is Russia moves troops to the border Such a sequence seems to be happening, at least in part. This is happening on the front that Russia opened up at Kharkov, which is now paralyzed and LuhanskIn the east, the Ukrainians took advantage of the situation and advanced a few kilometers.

According to the United States Institute of War Studies (ISW), the Russian Army also sent a regiment deployed in the southern Zaporizhia region to Kursk to counter the Ukrainian offensive. The question now is whether Ukraine can also do the same and move enough troops to Kursk To deter a possible counteroffensive and consolidate Russia’s buffer zone, as Zelensky advocates.

The Kiev military faces a very serious problem: Difficulty covering war casualties And mobilize new troops. At present, the Kursk Offensive does not require a large mobilization of soldiers, but very fast troops, capable of carrying out a large-scale offensive. Blitza blitzkrieg that caused no serious damage.

However, moving through that area of ​​southern Russia, especially with little resistance, is one thing, and Maintain conquest and build an armored firewallothers. This does require a large number of soldiers that Ukraine does not currently have.

Russian logistics and surveillance shortcomings

The difficulty Russia has in resolving this “invasion” of Ukraine is the lack of an effective logistical supply system in the region. It prioritizes annexed territories and war fronts, while other areas are almost undefended, even close to the border. Adding to this mistake is the failure Federal Security Service (FSB, formerly KGB) has suffered one of the greatest humiliations since taking over border control in 2003, in addition to conducting counterintelligence operations in Russia.

The Ukrainian forces involved in the invasion were able to relatively easily destroy connection points, roads, bridges and rail hubs, which would otherwise allow Moscow to replenish logistics to supply its attacking forces. Sudzha, one of the goals of the UkrainiansThe Kiev army destroyed three bridges over the Seym River. Many Russian units were thus isolated and at the mercy of better-armed and more mobile attacking forces.

Western support urgently needed

In this context, Ukraine needs Western diplomatic and military support more than ever. More weapons and greater freedom to use them on Russian territory.

On Thursday, after speaking with U.S. President Zelensky, Joe Biden promises another aid package for Ukraine Ukrainian arms companies will spend $125 million to provide anti-aircraft missiles, anti-drone equipment, anti-tank shells and ammunition to the Ukrainian Army. Biden announces new sanctions on 400 Russian entities and individualsBelarus and other countries including China directly or indirectly support Moscow’s war efforts.

The United States and Ukraine are also discussing the possibility of Washington eventually authorizing Ukrainian forces to use long-range weapons delivered by the Pentagon to strike targets inside Russia. This would allow the use of the American HIMARS missile system from Kursk, thereby Hindering Russia’s eventual massive counterattackdisabling the airport and halting the advance of the Kremlin’s troops.

White House National Security Council Spokesperson, John KirbyDo not want to confirm or deny this Friday the rumors that these HIMARS systems are actually already in use in Kursk, which would mean a new turn for real American involvement in the program Ukraine War.

this White House Currently, Ukraine is in need of supporting it with weapons more suitable for operations such as Kursk, but faces the following risks: Russia takes asymmetric measures In response to the West’s new red line crossing in support of Ukraine, the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Joseph BorelThis week he favored lifting restrictions on the use of Western missiles to “end Russia’s sanctuary”.

Borrell, one of the most belligerent figures in the EU’s confrontation with Russia, said giving the green light for Western missile strikes on Russian territory would allow “Saving lives and reducing damage in Ukraine”, and “advancing peace efforts”. A curious understanding of what peace efforts mean.

President of Poland, Andrzej DudaHe, who attended the independence commemorations in Kiev, went further and demanded I will accept It allows its members to shoot down Russian missiles over Ukrainian territory. Duda invited NATO to prepare for war against Russia more than a month ago.

Kursk Offensive lowers Putin’s approval rating

In any case, if Russia eventually responds to the Kursk Offensive, things could become very complicated for Ukraine, so the Ukrainian side will be nervous. Washington and Brussels accelerate military aid to KievRussian President Vladimir Putin has lost a lot of support over this Ukrainian action and may see this military challenge as a personal affront.

According to a survey by the Kremlin-based Public Opinion Research Center (Vtsiom), Putin’s image suffers biggest drop since invasion of UkraineThe survey, conducted from Aug. 12 to 18, showed approval of the president’s performance fell 3.5 percentage points to 73.6% from 77.1% the previous week.

this Trust in Putin There was also a 2.6% drop. They are not very large in percentage terms, but they are certainly important for the overall level of popular support for the Russian head of state. Perhaps that is why the Kremlin leader took the decisive first step this Saturday to deal with the Kursk crisis. Putin chairs a meeting of the General Staff And the unified command of the Russian Army military group about what is happening in the region of the attack in Ukraine. In the coming days, we may learn more about the response that may be given. RussiaIts goal, according to its military leadership, was to “eliminate” the invaders.