Why it has failed to combat terrorism

The United States is ending its military operations in Niger in case Deadline: mid-September The country’s ruling military junta agrees.

This landlocked country in West Africa has recently Announce Niger’s military overthrew the country’s elected president, ending 11 years of military cooperation with the United States.

Niger has been a strategic military partner of several countries, including the United States, France, Germany, Italy and Russia. In addition to helping West African countries fight terrorism, these countries are also there to promote and maintain their own economic and commercial interests.

Before the Niger military seized power in a coup on July 26, 2023, the United States operated two drone bases and had more More than 1,000 military personnel domestic.

As a scholar of politics and security in West Africa and the Sahel, I have Analyzing foreign military influence There is, in particular, a US drone base in Agadez.

In 2018, I argued that the presence of drone bases would not eliminate terrorism in the region. In fact, terrorism in the region has been increasing for six years.

This is due to a lack of understanding of local conflict dynamics, a failure to address the root causes of terrorism and a disconnect between respect for human rights and counter-terrorism.

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Use from Data on locations and incidents of armed conflict – an independent nonprofit organization that collects data on violent conflict and protests in countries and regions around the world – I analyzed the impact of foreign military presence and U.S. drone bases on counterterrorism in Niger. The analysis was based on the number of attacks carried out by terrorist groups in the country and the number of casualties they caused.

The table above shows that, although US operations began as early as 2013, terrorist activity and deaths have been steadily increasing since 2014. In fact, the number of attacks has increased significantly since 2018, when the US opened the 201st Air Base in Agadez.

mine predict The idea that drone bases could worsen the security situation and turn the country into a hotbed for insurgents appears to have become a reality.

The military junta cited rising insecurity and declining economic prospects as their justification for seizing power. The table above shows that they are correct, as the sense of security continues to increase despite the presence of foreign military personnel in the country. Many Nigeriens The existence of protest U.S. and French troops stationed in the country have expressed similar concerns.

While the chart above doesn’t show any significant positive impact of the U.S. in Niger, there are some.

this US Support Several countries in the region (Cameroon, Chad, Niger, Nigeria and Benin) have established joint task forces to combat terrorism.

this Multinational Joint Task Force Nigeria established the Lake Chad Basin Armed Forces in 1994 to combat cross-border armed banditry. Task Force to combat terrorism in the region instead. The United States played a role in the establishment of the platform.

In addition, the United States also provides Logistics and consulting Providing support to the Task Force and the now-defunct G5 Sahel Group. US drone bases are particularly important for information gathering throughout the Sahel region. This information is relevant to the Task Force’s counter-terrorism operations.

The U.S. Department of Defense has also provided financial support to other foreign militaries and groups involved in the fight against terrorism in the region. For example, in 2018, The United States provided $59 million in support and building capacity in African partner countries.

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Despite some successes, the establishment of a foreign military presence and drone bases has not weakened terrorist groups in Niger and the Sahel more broadly.

I believe there are three main reasons why the United States failed in Niger.

First, there is too much emphasis on military action, without addressing the economic causes of terrorism. Research shows that Poverty and terrorismPoor economic prospects, unemployment and a large youth population have contributed to the expansion of terrorist groups in Niger.

A Recent Reports The Lake Chad Basin Commission report stressed the importance of non-kinetic (non-force) measures in countering terrorism. Terrorism in the region cannot be solved by military means. The issues that lead to terrorism need to be addressed to reduce the motivation for people to join terrorist groups.

Second, the United States and its allies did not adequately understand the local dynamics in the country or the role that traditional rulers played in aiding or fighting terrorist groups.

Before me ResearchI find that political patronage plays a role in the formation and growth of insurgent groups.

Similar situations exist in African countries such as Niger, where the scope and scale of terrorism are determined by local political dynamics, ethnicity and religion, and if only military means are adopted without corresponding dialogue with local relevant groups, especially traditional rulers, no significant positive results will be achieved.

Third, the focus on human rights in the fight against terrorism is pushing Niger and other military governments closer to Russia and China. The United States and its allies often use their human rights records as a reason to refuse to sell certain weapons to African countries. US Congress blocks major arms sale Nigeria needs to fight terrorism. Russia and China are not doing it. Restrictions on weapons sales. Niger Building a stronger military Recent relations with Russia.

Finally, some Nigeriens, analysts and experts believe that the main goal of the United States and its allies in Niger is to No fight against insurgency but Promote your own interestsAfter the coup, this message resonated with the people of Niger and gained support for the military junta.

Insecurity and terrorism in Niger can be described asTough issues“—complex and difficult to resolve.

Some of the United States’ mistakes were not caused by itself, but the United States should reflect on itself and rethink its security alliances to ensure that it meets the wishes of ordinary people.