Why Ethiopia is so worried about Egypt’s alliance with Somalia

A military alliance between Somalia and Egypt has sparked controversy in the fragile Horn of Africa, particularly unsettling Ethiopia – where there are concerns its consequences could be more than just a war of words.

Tensions were further heightened this week when two Egyptian C-130 military aircraft arrived in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, marking the entry into force of an agreement signed by the Somali president during a state visit to Cairo in early August.

The plan is for up to 5,000 Egyptian troops to join the new African Union force by the end of the year, with another 5,000 reportedly to deploy separately.

Ethiopia, a key ally of Somalia in its fight against al-Qaeda-linked militants and currently at loggerheads with Egypt over the construction of a large dam on the Nile River, said it could not “stand idly by while other powers take steps to destabilize the region”.

Somalia’s defence minister hit back, saying Ethiopia should stop “whining” because everyone “will suffer the consequences” – a reference to months of downward diplomatic relations between the two countries.

It all comes down to the ambitions of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who wants a port for his landlocked country, which lost access to the sea when Eritrea broke away in the early 1990s.

On New Year’s Day, Abiy signed a controversial agreement with the self-proclaimed republic of Somaliland to lease 20 kilometers (12 miles) of the country’s coastline for 50 years to build a naval base.

It could also lead to Ethiopia’s formal recognition of the breakaway republic – something Somaliland has been striving for.

Somaliland broke away from Somalia more than 30 years ago, but Mogadishu considers it part of its territory and described the deal as an act of “aggression”.

Geopolitical analyst Jonathan Fenton Harvey told the BBC that Somalia is concerned that the move could set a precedent and encourage other countries to recognize Somaliland’s independence.

He added that neighboring Djibouti was also concerned that this could hurt its port-dependent economy as Ethiopia had traditionally relied on Djibouti for imports.

In fact, in an effort to defuse tensions, Djibouti’s foreign minister told the BBC that his country was prepared to offer Ethiopia “100 percent” use of one of its ports.

“The project will be located in the port of Tadjoura, 100 kilometres (62 miles) from the Ethiopian border,” Mahmoud Ali Youssef told BBC Africa Focus.

This is certainly a shift, as just last year a senior presidential adviser said Djibouti was unwilling to offer unrestricted access to the Red Sea to its neighbors.

Turkey’s efforts to calm tensions have so far been unsuccessful, and Somalia insists it will not back down unless Ethiopia recognizes its sovereignty over Somaliland.

Not only has Somalia drawn its Nile rival Egypt into the picture, it has also announced that Ethiopian troops will no longer be part of the AU force from January next year.

This is the start of the AU’s third peace support mission – the first was deployed in 2007, months after Ethiopian troops crossed the border to help fight al-Shabaab Islamist militants who then controlled Somalia’s capital.

According to Reuters, there are currently at least 3,000 Ethiopian soldiers in the AMIS.

Last week, Somalia’s prime minister also said Ethiopia would have to withdraw another 5,000 to 7,000 troops stationed in several regions under separate bilateral agreements unless it pulled out of the ports deal with Somaliland.

Ethiopia viewed this as an insult to what its foreign minister called the “sacrifices made by Ethiopian soldiers for Somalia.”

Christopher Hockney, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, told the BBC that the withdrawal would also leave Ethiopia vulnerable to attacks by jihadists.

He added that Egypt’s plans to deploy troops on its eastern border would also be of particular concern to Ethiopia.

Egypt views the Ethiopian Nile dam in the west of the country as an existential threat and has warned it will take “measures” if its security is threatened.

Egypt accuses Ethiopia of threatening its water supply by building the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Gerd).

The project began in 2011 on a tributary of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia’s northwestern highlands, which contains 85% of the Nile’s water.

Egypt said Ethiopia was pushing ahead with the project with total “disregard” for the interests and rights of downstream countries and the security of their water supplies.

The study also suggests that a 2% reduction in Nile water could result in the loss of about 200,000 acres (81,000 hectares) of irrigated land.

For Ethiopia, the dam is seen as a way to transform the country as it could produce electricity for 60 percent of the population and provide a steady stream of power for businesses.

The latest diplomatic effort to study how the dam works and determine how much water can flow to Sudan and Egypt failed last December.

Egypt considers the military agreement with Somalia to be “historic,” in the words of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and a possible opportunity to resolve the dam dispute.

Dr Hassan Kananje, director of the Horn Institute for International Strategic Studies, warned that the Nile dispute was likely to spread to Somalia.

If Ethiopian and Egyptian troops meet on the Somali border, it could lead to a “small-scale interstate conflict” between the two countries.

Somaliland has also warned that Egypt’s establishment of a military base inside Somalia could destabilize the region.

Both Ethiopia and Somalia are dealing with their own civil unrest – Ethiopia has small-scale insurgencies in several regions, while Somalia has just recovered from a devastating three-decade civil war but is still struggling with al-Shabaab.

Experts say neither country can afford further war, and more unrest will inevitably lead to more migration.

Dr Khannenje told the BBC that if a conflict broke out it could further complicate the geopolitics of the Red Sea, attract other players and further affect global trade.

According to shipping monitor Lloyd’s List, at least 17,000 ships pass through the Suez Canal each year, meaning 12% of global trade passes through the Red Sea each year, with goods worth up to $1 trillion (£842 billion).

As a result, countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey have been keen to establish partnerships with African countries along the Red Sea, such as Somalia.

Mr Harvey believes Türkiye and the UAE have a better chance of mediating and finding a middle ground.

The UAE has invested heavily in the port of Berbera in Somaliland and has significant influence in Ethiopia due to its investments in Ethiopia.

All eyes will be on the next diplomatic efforts of Turkey, which has ties to both Ethiopia and Somalia. Negotiations are due to begin in mid-September.

Additional reporting by Ashley Lime, Waihiga Mwaura, Chalkidan Yibeltal and Juneydi Farah