When the obvious isn’t obvious

Although neither Kiev nor European prime ministers want to admit it, the war in Ukraine will end only if Kiev shows its willingness to negotiate with Moscow, agrees to make territorial concessions and adopts a strategic neutrality similar to what Ukraine advocates. This inevitability clearly began to take shape and be imposed in 2010 when President Yanukovych announced it. But is it really so?

In order to find an acceptable answer to this question, it is necessary to understand the inconsistency of the possibility of dialogue with Moscow, which is repeatedly expressed in Kiev speeches. Kiev’s apparent openness to dialogue with the Kremlin undoubtedly leads to increasing difficulties for the West in supporting its war efforts; even excludes Donald Trump’s eventual victory in the North American presidential election from Ukraine’s strategic calculations.

As Penny Pulitzer, the US special representative for Ukraine’s economic recovery, said, it is increasingly difficult for the US government to find the money to support Kiev. Similarly, Le Monde draws attention to the inability of allies to increase arms supplies to Ukraine. The inability of Europeans to overcome a possible reduction in North American support seems indisputable.

There are of course many other factors that have contributed to this change in discourse, such as Russia’s advances on the ground – which have already begun to be significant – and the inability to counter them, as well as the desperation caused by a lack of fighters.

Forced mobilization inflicted deep wounds on Ukrainian social cohesion, leading to popular uprisings, interestingly in the cities of Volhynia, located in western Ukraine, the cradle of Ukrainian Nazism. Desertion rates have surged, with 30,000 cases registered in the first six months of 2024, significantly exceeding the figures recorded for the entire year of 2023.

To this we can add many other factors. The economic situation is getting worse. The institutions score Ukraine was given a “C” rating, which means near default, i.e. the initiation of default proceedings due to irreparable impairment of its ability to pay.

All these factors combined to lead Kiev to condescend and generously allow Russian representatives to attend the announced peace summit, which could take place at the end of this year. In the context of future talks with Moscow, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba traveled to China in the midst of an intense diplomatic flurry and met with Wang Yi in Guangzhou. Kuleba used the meeting to demonstrate Ukraine’s willingness to negotiate directly with Russia, although he later changed his speech after arriving in Kiev.

Kuleba said China has reached out to Kiev’s position. These unsatisfactory remarks show that the Ukrainian elite cannot understand what is happening around him. He has not yet realized that he is not the center of the world and that he can be abandoned. His influence on Washington cannot be compared with Netanyahu, who can even be ungrateful and take back Biden’s words after the two talked on the phone.

Zelenskyy talks about war as well as peace. He has not given up hope of inflicting a major military defeat on the Russians. To achieve this goal, 14 new brigades are being prepared, despite the difficulties of equipping and arming them. At the same time, Ukrainian CEMGFA General Oleksandr Syrsky said that he was forced to use some of these units to reinforce the troops on the Volchansk and Pokrovsk fronts.

Zelensky naively continues to cling to the marvelous weapons that will change the course of the war. His confidence now lies in the dozen or so F-16s that have already arrived in Ukraine, which will replicate the incredible feat of the “Ghost of Kiev”. Perhaps influenced by the final heroic charge of the samurai wreck on horseback against the Japanese machine guns in the movie “The Last Samurai” starring Tom Cruise, Zelensky is now preparing for his last breath.

Amid the chaos, it is impossible to exclude another military adventure, in which the Ukrainian army will take part in a final offensive, most likely later this year, before a “peace conference” promoted by Kiev and its sponsors, convinced that it will crush the Russians and will appear at the said conference as a leader, able to impose peace terms on them, pretending to be the victor. It is still unusual that the president of a country, whose army is losing ground and whose country is in ruins, lurks in these fictitious daydreams.

According to rumors, Kiev has already redefined its strategic goals. The focus now is no longer on the complete recovery of Russian-controlled territory, but on the capture of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant and placing all its chips there to exploit its remaining combat potential as a last effort, a last chance to gain a favorable negotiating position. This explains the tentative nature of the talks with the Kremlin – only after the last confrontation, which will not take place before the fall. The move is extremely risky. Failure would lead to the total collapse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and mark the end of the Ukrainian regime established by the Maidan coup.

The Ukrainian side believes that it is still possible to impose peace conditions on Russia, and therefore has not yet approached the so-called bitter stalemate, which is an indispensable condition for the parties to sit at the negotiating table, and this will happen only at the end of this year. Therefore, Zelensky’s change of language during the talks with Moscow is not a real one, but a pretext, a sympathetic gesture to relieve the pressure he is beginning to experience.

Events in Ukraine are reminiscent of the 1940 conflict between Finland and the Soviet Union, in which Finland was defeated and ceded territory. The speech given by General Carl Gustav Mannerheim, the commander of the Finnish Armed Forces, to his soldiers at the moment of defeat is inescapable. Zelensky should read it.

Mannerheim recognized that the unfavorable outcome for Finland was caused by the failure of Western powers to deliver on valuable promises of aid; and that peace must be achieved under certain circumstances, even under unfavorable conditions. The political immaturity of Ukraine’s leaders does not allow them to understand this. Therefore, its future may not be far from what happened to the samurai.