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The research organization defended the legality of its survey and called on the public to first understand the methods used to collect the data before drawing erroneous conclusions.
Afrobarometer, a research institute on the continent, has said there is no basis for claims that it is interfering in Namibian political affairs, saying those who oppose its public attitude surveys on socio-economic issues tend to do so when the results go against them.
Afrobarometer is a research network that conducts surveys of public attitudes on democracy, governance, economic conditions and related issues in more than 35 countries across Africa.
A recent Afrobarometer survey, which predicted the results of the presidential and National Assembly elections in November, has been criticized and its legitimacy questioned, according to media reports.
‘Inaccurate’ reporting
Media reports said polls showed SWAPO presidential candidate Netumbo Nandi Ndaitwa would win the November election with 50.8 percent of the vote, while Landless People’s Movement leader Bernardus Swatebo was expected to come second with 5.6 percent.
Critics accuse the Afrobarometer polling body of being pro-SAW and of engaging in a sustained propaganda drive aimed at influencing the country’s electoral process by tilting the national election in favour of the ruling party.
Christiaan Keulder, managing director of the Survey Warehouse, Namibia’s national survey agency Afrobarometer, denied that the research agency was pushing a particular agenda.
“It is important to clarify that the Afrobarometer 10th round is not an ‘election poll’, as inaccurately stated in some media reports. The Afrobarometer survey focuses on democracy, governance and policy across Africa. The data collected is intended to provide insight into citizen views on these key issues, not to predict election outcomes,” Kurd said.
He added: “Why would anyone think we have a political agenda? There are two reasons why we have these perceptions. First, the data can be misinterpreted depending on how it is reported in the media. Second, some of these sources are politicians themselves, so when they deal with data that is critical of their work, they resort to discrediting the results,” Kurd said.
Local media quoted
Kurd’s comments came after retired diplomat Pius Dunaiski reportedly denied the poll’s results and called for an investigation into the polling outfit, accusing it of working with a US university.
“Afrobarometer has completely lost its legitimacy as an African polling body. Predicting President Nudoh’s proximity to Itura has made them lose all credibility. What is needed most now is an investigation into the polling bodies working with American universities. We should demand an investigation into the personalities involved in the polls and their links with the West African People’s Organization. It is clear that their survey is deeply flawed and ridiculous. The whole thing reeks of pure propaganda,” Dunaiski said in a recent newspaper article.
public opinion
Kurd said critics, and sometimes the media, are not familiar with the methods used to collect the data, which can lead to misinterpretation of the data and misleading conclusions.
“We are also concerned that some reports present survey data without including important details such as sampling strategies and margins of error,” he said.
He added: “For example, at a 95% confidence level, with a margin of sampling error of +/- 3 percentage points, the support rates of the various opposition parties should be considered statistically indifferent. Ignoring this context can lead to misleading conclusions, such as falsely claiming that one party will replace another as the official opposition based solely on our findings.”
A random stratified probability sample of 1,200 adult citizens, representing a national sample, was interviewed by the Survey Depot between March 14 and April 2, 2024. He explained that a sample of this size allows for national-level results with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
Afrobarometer has been conducting surveys in Namibia since 1999 and has completed 10 rounds of surveys in Namibia as of March this year. Each round builds on the previous one, providing valuable data to track changes in public opinion over time.
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