Ukraine is not just a pawn in the hands of the West

Screenwriter: Bozo Kovacevich

In August this year, Russia experienced another unpleasant surprise. Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers, organized into several armored brigades, occupied large tracts of territory in the Kursk region, where they successfully established themselves and continued offensive operations. Dozens of settlements are now under Ukrainian control. Russian pro-government media praised local authorities for successfully evacuating more than 120,000 people from the military operation zone in record time.

However, these media outlets do not ask the question: how could such a massive Ukrainian military buildup on the Russian border go unnoticed? What are the supposedly all-powerful Russian civilian and military intelligence services doing? Russian commanders do not seem to have learned anything from the experience of the first day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when the Ukrainians easily destroyed a kilometer-long column of Russian tanks advancing on the highway towards Kiev. Russian troops were again ordered to move towards the Ukrainian infiltration points, moving in columns that could easily be spotted by Ukrainian drones, destroying equipment and killing personnel. The Russian Federal Security Service quickly arrested a citizen who filmed the scene of Russia’s catastrophic losses on his mobile phone and posted it on social networks, but no one publicly mentioned the responsibility of commanders who ordered military units in the theater of operations to move in unprotected columns.

Apparently, the Russian military top brass has fallen victim to its own propaganda. That is, official Russian propaganda depicts the Ukrainian government as a terrorist gang incapable of organizing a more complex military operation. Now, for the first time since Hitler’s Germany attacked the Soviet Union in 1941, this gang is organizing a large-scale land invasion of the territory of the Russian Federation. This self-deception is partly due to the Russian authorities’ insistence that a special military operation is being carried out in Ukraine, even though it is a protracted and exhausting trench warfare. Despite the fact that several Ukrainian mechanized brigades have seized at least 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory in an extremely organized manner, capturing completely unprepared members of the Russian army in the process, the Russian authorities continue to describe it as an act of terror rather than a military operation.

Unpleasant surprise

It should be said that in the past two and a half years, Russia has experienced so many unpleasant surprises that for knowledgeable observers, these are not the exception but the norm.

The first and most important surprise for the Russian government was the failure of the plan. Blitz Against Ukraine in February 2022. The security intelligence assessments of Ukrainian public sentiment and Ukrainian military capabilities were completely wrong, resulting in not a victorious entry of Russian troops into Kiev and the installation of a Quisling government, but rather an exhausting trench war in eastern Ukraine.

The next unpleasant surprise was the consequence of the first one, which was the imposition of Western sanctions and the interruption of Russian energy supplies to Europe. Instead of giving the West a collective fait accompli by its swift takeover of power in Ukraine, Russia faced long-term sanctions and diplomatic isolation at the international level. On the domestic front, it faced the necessity of mobilizing a large number of soldiers for a real war. President Vladimir Putin promised the Russians that they would not feel the consequences of the invasion of Ukraine. However, the professional composition of the Russian army is not enough for long-term trench warfare, and regular replenishment of troops exhausted by continuous fighting and heavy losses is required.

An even more unpleasant surprise for the Russian government and the public (to the extent that the public is aware of what is actually going on) has been the crippling of the supposedly powerful Russian Black Sea Fleet. A command ship, a submarine, and several large warships were sunk by Ukrainian drones. The Russian Navy is virtually unable to conduct combat operations there.

Avoiding a coup

We should also remember Prigozhin’s rebellion last year. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the mercenary Wagner military organization, which was formed with the support of the Russian military intelligence service GRU, sent a considerable military force from Rostov-on-Don to Moscow. In one day, he successfully traveled almost 1,000 kilometers. Panicked, Putin left Moscow, and the capital was defended by the Rosgvardy, an armed force that evolved from the presidential security service. Facts have already shown how unstable the seemingly iron-clad pyramid of the Putin government is. Then there is A Difference of a Millimeter A coup was averted.

Moscow was surprised that Ukrainian forces were able to strike targets in Russia with long-range missiles and that Russian air defenses were unable to stop the attacks. About 20 Russian oil refineries have been damaged as a result.

All these surprises, all the things that happened that the Russian government did not expect, boil down to one conclusion: President Putin, who won the Russian electorate a great deal of trust based on his promise to be the guarantor of their security and well-being – exists, unable to fulfill his promises. The tacit understanding between the authorities and the citizens means that they accept all Putin’s foreign policy initiatives without question in exchange for peace, security and prosperity. First of all, this means that there will be no forced mobilization, and even the possibility of mass migration of the population in the face of a foreign invasion force is not considered. Faced with countless unpleasant surprises, today even those who truly support Putin without reservation realize that it is he, his Ukrainian policy, that is the main reason for their concerns and existential insecurity.

It was also a surprise to the West.

Zelensky’s unpleasant surprise for Putin also surprised the West. It is not clear whether everyone in the West was surprised.

Vladimir Zelensky’s decision to launch a land invasion of the territory of the Russian Federation (without consulting his Western allies on this matter) shows that he has finally understood Clausewitz’s thesis that war is the continuation of politics by other means. The West’s use of the war in Ukraine to achieve its political ends so far boils down to one thing: to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia. Ukraine was supposed to be a tool to achieve this goal. At the same time, the goals of the collective West do not necessarily coincide with the main goal of Ukrainian politics, which is to establish territorial integrity.

President Zelensky’s irrational move from a purely military perspective demonstrates that he is no longer just a tool of other countries’ policies, but is ready to use the military to achieve his own political goals. Anticipating that he may face pressure from his allies in the near future to agree to peace talks with Russia, he made a risky move that – if successful – would significantly change the negotiating position. Instead of creating a disadvantageous situation in which Ukraine could negotiate peace in exchange for consent to Russia’s annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory, Ukraine has created a situation in which Ukraine could negotiate to exchange Russian territory it controls for Ukrainian territory controlled by Russia.

Even if Russia expels or destroys the Ukrainian forces occupying Russian territory, people should remember that Ukraine is not just a pawn in the hands of the West, but that its government is capable and ready to make autonomous foreign policy decisions. This would be another extremely unpleasant surprise for the Russian government.

Al Jazeera Balkans