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Predicting an election is even more foolish. A candidate was nearly assassinated Egypt Another may be deposed.
but Recent events have led to more speculation about Donald Trump 2. According to a YouGov/CBS survey conducted from July 16 to 18, Trump has 52% of the votes; Joe Biden47%. The margin of error is 2.7 percentage points.
The assumption that Trump’s blood will boost Biden’s votes doesn’t seem like an insurmountable advantage, given the poor state of Biden’s campaign and the three and a half months until the vote. Moreover, the election outcome depends heavily on six hotly contested swing states between Democrats and Republicans.
Biden is definitely unpopularOnly 5% of voters They think the United States is doing “very well”; Another 19% thought it was going well (“somewhat well”), 33% thought it was going “badly”, and 42% thought it was going “very badly”.
But it’s easy to see that even Biden’s poor approval ratings didn’t turn more voters toward Trump. Few said they voted for Biden “primarily because they like him”: 27%. Another 23% cast their ballots for the incumbent because he was the Democratic nominee; 50% because they wanted to defeat Trump.
Even Biden’s disgraced vice president, Kamala Harris, will face a tougher race with the Republicans. The election still appears to be open.
The scrutiny of Trump II is also heightened because he is new.
The most common guess is that Trump 2 will know how to better manage the public sectormore opportunities to put your ideas into practice. Their nominees are said to be implementing more detailed plans, perhaps those of the far-right conservative Heritage Foundation, although the foundation’s influence is controversial.
That is, Trump is an extreme hack opportunist who often adapts to circumstances even when he is upset. It’s his show.
Shortly before the attacks, the Wall Street Journal published a survey of economists on The economic consequences of Trump 2.
The forecast is for rising inflation and interest rates, which will affect the world economy, including here. Significant increase in import taxes and immigration barriersAs Trump hopes, this will make American products, inputs and labor more expensive.
OK, but these tiny changes in financial indicators seem laughable compared to the chaos the Republicans could wreak on the world’s political and economic order, not to mention the damage to civilization and democracy.
Trump said he wanted Peace in UkraineThat is, surrender: may the war end with the Ukrainians ceding territory to Vladimir Putin’s Russia. He wants to cut military subsidies to Ukraine and Europe. If these plans are implemented, they will not only force the Europeans to increase defense spending (which will cause financial and economic problems, and perhaps political problems), but will also force them to change their foreign policy and increase global tensions.
The Supreme Court will rule in your favor; who knows, a Republican Congress. So it can dismantle government regulatory and oversight agencies and facilitate the firing or manipulation of federal employees. You don’t have to worry about reelection (you can’t run for a third term).
Trump may want to change regulation of “Big Tech,” tightening it in some cases and loosening it in others. It’s not liberal: it picks winners.
If government deficits and debt are allowed to increase further (through tax cuts), this could lead to structural changes in the international monetary system and in U.S. and global interest rates. If corporate taxes are reduced, this would also put pressure on tax systems in other parts of the planet.
But the election is open. It is not too late for America and the world.
The columnist will be on vacation until August.
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