Tropical Storm Debby moves across the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida

A tropical depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Debbie on Saturday north of Cuba and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico and collides with the Florida coast.

The National Hurricane Center said in an update issued at 2 a.m. Sunday that Debbie was about 65 miles (105 kilometers) west-northwest of Florida’s Dry Tortugas National Park and about 230 miles (370 kilometers) south-southwest of Tampa. The storm was moving toward the northwest at 14 mph (22 kph) and had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 kph).

Winds and thunderstorms have spread over large areas of southern Florida, the Florida Keys and the Bahamas. A hurricane warning has been issued for parts of coastal Florida and a tropical storm warning has been issued for the Florida Keys.

Debbie is likely to bring heavy rains and coastal flooding to much of Florida’s Gulf Coast by Sunday night, and forecasts show the hurricane could make landfall on Monday and move across northern Florida into the Atlantic Ocean.

Debbie is the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, following Tropical Storm Alberto, Hurricane Beryl, and Tropical Storm Chris, all of which formed in June.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami forecast that the hurricane would strengthen near the southwest Florida coast, where water temperatures are extremely high. The hurricane was expected to intensify at a faster rate later Sunday.

A hurricane warning has been issued for parts of Big Bend and the Florida Panhandle, and a tropical storm warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida, the southern Florida Keys, and the Dry Tortugas. A tropical storm watch extends further west into the Panhandle. A warning means a storm is expected within 36 hours, while a watch means a storm is possible within 48 hours.

Tropical Storms and Hurricanes River flooding is possible, inundating drainage systems and canals. Forecasters warned of 6 to 12 inches (150 mm to 300 mm) of rain, with up to 18 inches (450 mm) in some areas, with the possibility of “locally severe” flash and urban flooding. Forecasters also warned of moderate flooding in some rivers along Florida’s west coast.

The heaviest rainfall is likely along the Atlantic coast next week, from Jacksonville, Florida, to coastal areas of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. The storm is expected to weaken after landfall.

“We could see some stagnant or meandering motion along the southeastern U.S. coast,” National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said at a briefing on Saturday. “So that could exacerbate not only the rainfall risk, but also the storm surge and the strong winds.”

Flat Florida is prone to flooding even on sunny days, and the storm is expected to bring 2 to 4 foot (0.6 to 1.2 meter) waves to much of the Gulf Coast, including Tampa Bay, and tides up to 7 feet (2.1 meter) to the sparsely populated Big Bend area north of Tampa Bay.

Forecasters warned of “a risk of life-threatening storm surge flooding” in areas including Hernando Beach, Crystal River, Steinhatch and Cedar Key. Officials in Citrus and Levy counties ordered mandatory evacuations along the coast, while officials in Hernando, Manatee, Pasco and Taylor counties called for voluntary evacuations. Shelters were opened in those and some other counties.

Citrus County Sheriff Mike Prendergast estimated that 21,000 people were in the county’s evacuation zone. During last year’s Hurricane Idalia, officials rescued 73 people from storm surge flooding. Prendergast said by phone that he hoped Debbie’s situation would not happen again.

“Once the storm surge hit, our agency and other emergency response agencies in the county simply did not have enough first responders to rescue all the people who needed rescue,” he said.

Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 61 of Florida’s 67 counties, deploying 3,000 National Guard troops. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp issued his own emergency proclamation on Saturday.

The White House said federal and Florida officials were in contact and that the Federal Emergency Management Agency had “pre-positioned” resources including water and food.

In Tampa alone, officials handed out more than 30,000 sandbags to hold back floodwaters.

“We’ve cleared our storm drains. We’ve checked our generators and filled them. We’re doing everything necessary to prepare for a tropical storm,” Tampa Mayor Jane Custer said.

Christina Lothrop, general manager of the Blue Pelican Marina in Hernando Beach, a barrier island about 50 miles (80 kilometers) north of St. Petersburg, said the public ramp was packed with people launching into the water on Saturday.

“Today was normal, but a little bit strange,” Lothrop told The Associated Press by phone.

Yet workers at her marina had been preparing since Tuesday, securing boats to racks, putting away tool boxes and tying everything down.

“Right now what we do is mostly mooring ships,” Lothrop said.

Before closing Saturday, Lothrop planned to lift the computers off the ground and seal the doors with sandbags and tape. Idalia pushed about a foot (30 centimeters) of water into the store.

Betti Silverman, whose home is in Crystal River, said Saturday afternoon she doubted her family would leave. Silverman’s waterfront home flooded during Hurricane Idalia, destroying boxes and furniture in the garage as her family prepared to move in. But she said Debbie’s forecast didn’t seem as severe.

“We’ve lived in Florida our whole lives, in South Florida, so hurricanes aren’t really a big deal,” Silverman said.

Crews pulled floating cranes out of the Tampa Bay Bridge construction project on Friday, tying together and securing 74 barges and 24 floating cranes, project engineer Marian Brinson told Tampa Bay TimesCrews also positioned a crane on shore.

Pinellas County has paused a $5 million beach renovation project due in part to erosion from past storms.

For some, the name Debbie evokes a 2012 tropical storm of the same name that caused $250 million in damage and killed eight people, seven of them in the Sunshine State. That storm brought torrential rain, including up to 29 inches (730 mm) of rain south of Tallahassee.

Hurricane Carlota is located in the Pacific Ocean, more than 750 miles (1,200 kilometers) from Mexico, and continues to move westward with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (140 kph). Carlota began to weaken on Saturday and may dissipate into the remnants of a thunderstorm.

Further west, Tropical Storm Daniel formed in the Pacific Ocean. It is more than 1,500 miles (2,400 kilometers) from the southern tip of Baja California and is also expected to dissipate without making landfall.