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France has taken a dramatic turn: A coalition of leftist parties is in the lead in Sunday’s legislative elections, ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s camp, with the far right in third place, but no group has an outright majority, according to initial estimates.
The National Rally (RN, far right) officially entered the National Assembly with the highest number of elected representatives ever (between 115 and 152), but is still far from governing, with a disappointing score compared to its surge in the first round.
With three weeks until the Olympics, France, a pillar country of the European Union, finds itself in the unknown.
The New Popular Front (NFP) left-wing coalition, made up of parties divided on many issues, has unexpectedly emerged as the dominant force with between 172 and 215 representatives, according to initial estimates by pollsters.
A month after Emmanuel Macron decided to disband it with a playing card, the presidential camp has shown unexpected resilience, with between 150 and 180 elected officials, compared to only 250 in June 2022.
Among the first to react, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the radical left and member of the NFP, estimated that Prime Minister Gabriel Attal should “step down” and the left-wing coalition should “govern”, adding: “Our people have clearly ruled out the worst solution”, that of the far right.
Jordan Bardella, who is running for the post of head of government, denounced the “coalition of shame” that deprives France of a “government of renaissance”. According to him, registered nurses “embody more than ever the only rotation”.
President Emmanuel Macron will wait to learn the “structure” of the new parliament’s lower house to determine who he will appoint as prime minister, the Elysee Palace announced late Sunday.
A new alliance is about to emerge?
The three-way system has thrown France into a fog this time, with voter participation at around 67% at the end of the election, the highest level since 1981. Because it failed to reach the standard of 289 representatives, which means an absolute majority or even close to it, no group can form a government alone.
While awaiting comprehensive data and intense negotiations, the nature of the next government remains uncertain. But the “Republican Front” established between the two rounds of this election to limit the Republican wave expected in the half-cycle has clearly borne fruit.
In the RN, the feelings are necessarily mixed. On the tail side, the Torch Party and its allies are gaining new elected officials at historic levels. On the other hand, he sees the dream of forming a government, which would be the first far-right government in France since World War II, shattered. The victory was intended to pave the way for Marine Le Pen to take power in the 2027 presidential election.
Many questions remain.
After two years of bickering, can the left parties and Macron’s camp reach an impossible political agreement? Can the left-wing alliance, which looks so fragile, survive this election?
Faced with a “divided parliament”, “we have to act like adults”, commented Raphael Glucksmann (left). He added: “We will have to talk, we will have to discuss, we will have to dialogue.”
The problem also lies in the strategy of the Republican Party (LR, right), which fell into disarray after its leader Eric Ciotti united to the RN, but they retained a sufficient number of elected officials (57 to 67) to present themselves as a fulcrum to submit to the Congress.
- Reassure international partners –
With the world’s attention focused on France three weeks before the Olympics, the country could also move toward a technocratic government like the one that rescued Italy from its debt crisis in 2011. Personality.
In such a vague situation, the current Prime Minister announced that he would ensure the continuity of the country “as long as necessary”.
The head of state was weakened in the process. The blitzkrieg for legislative elections was conducted in a tense atmosphere, with repeated attacks on candidates and activists and racist statements exposing France’s divisions.
Macron is expected to have to reassure partners and the financial community of France’s stability at a NATO summit on Wednesday, while difficult negotiations over key parliamentary posts will multiply before the new legislature opens on July 18.
The French legislative elections have attracted close attention from all over the world, and some European countries, led by Germany, have repeatedly expressed concerns about the rise of far-right forces.
Other countries, such as Italy led by Giorgia Meloni or Russia led by Vladimir Putin, have expressed their satisfaction more or less openly.
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