The far-right AfD has reached 30% support in Thuringia and Saxony

When the exit polls were released at 6 p.m., two parties cheered: the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the six-month-old Bundeswehr (BSW).

The AfD has reached 30% support in Thuringia and Saxony. In Thuringia, it has become the largest party, led by Björn Höch. In Saxony, it is right behind the CDU, which is still the largest. The AfD wants to be part of the state government, but the other parties do not want to form a coalition with the far right under any circumstances. The AfD ends up being an opposition MP, and it may be able to block important decisions together with many elected officials.

Founded by a former figurehead of the left-wing party Die Linke, the BSW came third in both states as a newcomer overtaking the traditional parties. Like the AfD, the BSW feels the mood in East Germany all too clearly. The party entered these elections with the intention of attracting AfD voters, but that did not happen. Roughly speaking, Wagenknecht’s former party, Die Linke, has now been halved and has become irrelevant.

The CDU breathed a sigh of relief: it was the only one among the traditional parties that could be counted as the winner. Thuringia (24.5%) saw an increase of 3%, and Saxony (where Michael Kretschmer has been prime minister since 2017) saw a slight decline, but still the largest. In Thuringia, the CDU came in second, and CDU member Mario Voigt is likely to become the leader of the new government. Analysts suspect that the CDU won so many votes because democratic voters “strategically” voted for the party that is most likely to block the AfD. In both states, significantly more voters than usual turned out to vote.

Difficult negotiations?

It is not easy to form a coalition. Perhaps a combination of the CDU, BSW and SPD is mathematically possible – they lost 1 seat in Thuringia on Sunday evening. At first glance, these negotiations seem difficult, because Wagenknecht has a different vision of the war in Ukraine. She wants negotiations instead of arms deliveries. But this subject she describes does not fall within the competence of the federal states. The leaders of the local BSW party talk about training and plugging holes in the welfare state.

Berlin’s coalition – the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Liberals – is suffering from a painful loss of face. In Thuringia and Saxony, the SPD’s support hovers between 9% and 7%, and in Thuringia the Greens are likely to be kicked out of parliament, and the FDP is no longer in the mix. East German voters don’t like the coalition. They feel that Berlin makes decisions beyond their imagination and doesn’t listen to their problems. They are annoyed by the arguments in the coalition and the resulting wandering policies. In Thuringia, only 17% say Scholz is doing a good job. Berlin has a year to turn things around before parliamentary elections in September 2025.