The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah

Since the October 7 Gaza conflict, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has continued in a more controlled manner than in Gaza. However, in recent weeks, tensions have been rising in the north, and the threat of a full-scale war has become increasingly apparent. This is revealed by the consistent statements and actions of Israeli officials and Hezbollah leaders.

We draw your attention to SETA Foreign Policy Fellow Jan Ajbun.

On October 7, Hamas launched a surprise military operation against Israel, followed by a genocidal attack on Israel, turning the spotlight to Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a Shia political and military force that de facto controls southern Lebanon and is an organization based on Iranian radicals. Hezbollah has clashed with Israel many times before, and the last large-scale conflict with Israel was in 2006, which dealt a heavy blow to Israel. Some time ago, Hezbollah released a video showing the strategic location of Haifa, Israel. The video was shot by an unmanned reconnaissance aircraft in mid-air and was not detected by radar. It was essentially a preventive measure, meaning that Hezbollah could destroy key Israeli positions.

Hezbollah’s hardline stance towards Israel and its declaration of war in response to a possible Israeli ground operation in Gaza has already sparked the conflict. But Hezbollah has chosen to conduct more controlled attacks on Israel. At the same time, the conflict has also taken its toll on Israel, resulting in the displacement of more than a hundred thousand Israelis from the region into refugee camps. Until recent weeks… Recently we have seen Hezbollah attacks equipped with more powerful and advanced weapon systems. Perhaps it is time for the Battle Path and Hezbollah to take action!

Netanyahu is also under great pressure to make a difference on the northern front. Netanyahu is believed to be planning a ground operation to force Hezbollah to attack, and through heavy bombing, Hezbollah will be pinned down from northern Israel and dispersed to the north of the Litani River. Israel’s goal on the northern front is to establish a Hezbollah retreat north of the Litani River. The Israeli army hopes to build a median strip there. But it should not be forgotten that Hezbollah, as an asymmetric force, has been preparing for war for years, with tens of thousands of different types of missiles and kamikaze systems. Given Israel’s failure so far to quell Hamas resistance in the Gaza Strip, it may be too much to think that it will succeed in the north.

Of course, we should not forget that the destabilizing practices of the United States continue. On the one hand, it continues to provide military support to Israel, but on the other hand, it does not want the war with Hezbollah that seems likely to expand and tries to keep all parties away from it. But it can be said that the Zionist forces in the United States are preventing the White House from putting serious pressure on Netanyahu. Therefore, if a full-scale war breaks out, the United States will not be able to prevent it.